The Lakers and Suns will play each other for the first time this season tonight, and the contest will go a long way in determining how legitimate of a threat the Suns are in the West. Phoenix currently ranks fourth in the conference, but they’re just one game behind the second-place Lakers. Sportsbooks are currently giving Los Angeles the edge, as they’re 1.5-point favorites, but I think that has created some serious NBA betting picks value on Phoenix.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Suns vs. Lakers
Suns vs. Lakers Game Info
Phoenix Suns (22-11) at Los Angeles Lakers (24-11)
Date: Tuesday, Mar. 2, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: STAPLES Center — Los Angeles, Calif.
Coverage: TNT
The Suns head into this matchup on a two-game winning streak. They have won all but one of their last five games, as they fell to the Hornets last Wednesday. Likewise, the Lakers have also won their last two, but they had dropped the four games immediately prior. Dennis Schroder‘s return has helped the Lakers right the ship, but they’re still an incomplete team without Anthony Davis.
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Suns vs. Lakers Spread Trends and Prediction: Suns +1.5
Boy, do the trends point to considerable value on Phoenix tonight. The Suns have been the NBA’s second-best team against the spread, as they boast a 22-11 record against the spread, while the Lakers rank tenth-worst with their 16-19 record against the spread. Notably, the Lakers have underperformed at home, as they have just a 7-11 record against the spread in the STAPLES Center.
The Suns also boast an impressive 11-5 record against the spread on the road, and it jumps to 5-0 when they’re listed as road underdogs.
My NBA betting model also sides with the Suns tonight. I calculate a spread for each game using pace and efficiency data, which is then weighted for rest and recent performance, and it expects the Suns to win by a 3.6-point margin. The Suns have just been too efficient on offense for Los Angeles’ defense to limit them here, and they should at least keep this one within a point.
Suns vs. Lakers Total Trends and Prediction: Under 215.5
The trends also point to a good chunk of value on the under. The Suns’ over percentage (48.5%) ranks 12th lowest, while the Lakers’ over percentage (34.3%) ties them with the Knicks for the NBA’s lowest. However, Los Angeles’ over percentage jumps to 50% when they play at home. In contrast, Phoenix’s over percentage actually falls when they play on the road (37.5%) and as road underdogs (40%).
My model also favors the under. It predicts a final tally of 211 total points, a healthy margin below where sportsbooks have set the total. The model expects this result because of both teams’ strong defensive play. The Lakers and Suns have both improved their defensive efficiency over their last three showings, and both squads rank in the top five through that span — and in the top six on the year.
With the trends and model in agreement, I feel comfortable predicting that this one will stay under.
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Suns vs. Lakers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
For the reasons listed above, I favor the Suns plus the points tonight. If you agree, you can head over to SugarHouse, DraftKings Sportsbook or William Hill to get them as 1.5-point underdogs with the best juice (-110). Should you disagree, you can head to FanDuel Sportsbook to get the Lakers as just 1-point favorites, or you can add a half-point and head to BetMGM or PointsBet for better juice (-105). These lines may move as tip-off approaches, so make sure to keep track of any changes directly through OddsShopper.
Suns vs. Lakers NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
With my model and the trends in agreement, I also favor the under tonight. You can buy the highest total at BetMGM Sportsbook, or you burn a full point and head to PointsBet for the best juice (-105). Should you disagree and favor the over, FanDuel Sportsbook and William Hill have the lowest total with the best juice (-110). As always, make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re getting the best deal.
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