As always, I have examined the best Vegas odds and outlined three free expert MLB picks. With the help of the Awesemo MLB betting tool, let’s get to the MLB betting tips for tonight.
Expert MLB Betting Picks, Predictions & Vegas Odds
Padres at Rockies Under 12.5 runs (-115, PointsBet)
Taking the under at Coors is usually not the best idea, but German Marquez is taking the mound for the Rockies, and he is a great pitcher. It is wise to target the under in a great hitting park, as Vegas does not adjust for the talent of the starter for the Rockies in this spot. The line of 12.5 runs is a lofty total, and Marquez should be able to limit the Padres and the Rockies is offense is simply not that good. They struggle generating power in the most power-friendly park in the league, as no one in this lineup has an xSLG over .500. Lock the contrarian under in this spot for a long-term profitable play.
Mets Over Giants (+147, William Hill)
Once again Awesemo’s expert MLB prop betting model projects that the books have this one to be a little too lopsided. The Mets have a 46% chance of taking this one down, and +190 only applies about a 40% chance of winning. Yesterday’s analysis applies, only today’s Mets pitcher is actually very good at limiting runs as opposed to yesterday. The Mets are playing much better now that they are finally healthy and deserve more respect against the upstart Giants in this spot.
Cubs Over Reds (+150, William Hill)
Kyle Hendricks has had a great year in every category except strikeouts. He limits hard contact and walks and generally is a very reliable pitcher. The Cubs have lost a lot of their offensive firepower, but anyone could hit Vladimir Gutierrez. He has given up an xSLG of .410 and only struck out 17% of batters. Cubs still have a lot of power but also strike out a ton, and that should be limited against this pitcher. Riding the dog in this spot is a +EV proposition in the long run.
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