NASCAR Betting Picks, Parlays & Best Bets | NASCAR Cup Series Championship

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series wraps up an exciting season this Sunday at Phoenix. With a championship on the line for four drivers, let’s dive into the top three NASCAR betting picks on BetMGM for the Season Finale 500.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Betting Picks & Odds

Joey Logano (+2000) to Win the Season Finale 500

Picking one of the drivers not contending for the championship is going off the board a bit. In fact, if Logano can win on Sunday, he will be the first driver since Denny Hamlin (2013) to be a non-championship contending driver to win the final race. However, 20-1 odds are too big to ignore for Logano here at Phoenix. To begin with, over Logano’s past three visits to Phoenix Raceway, all races utilizing the high horsepower, low downforce aero package, he has managed top-three results in all of them including a win in the spring race of 2020. Over these past three races, Logano has combined to lead 328 laps, on top of the 93 he led in the fall race of 2019. During this span, he has also managed to hold the highest average running position in the past two Phoenix events. As of 2021, Logano has been one of the more consistent drivers in the 750 horsepower package at short-flat venues, with last week’s race at Martinsville being his first finish outside of the top five. With the added benefit of practice on Friday, crew chief Paul Wolfe can help dial in an aggressive setup for a driver with nothing but a victory on his mind.

For those confident enough in Logano to make this bet against championship race trends, they can also grab Team Penske at +750 to be the winning team. For those looking to grab a partial hedge, Logano sits tied with his Penske counterparts at +280 to finish as the top Ford.

Aric Almirola (+200) for a Top 10

Almirola’s 2021 season has been a letdown, to say the least. In his age-37 season, he has had his fewest number of top-fives (two) while racing for Stewart-Haas, less than a handful of top-10 results, five DNFs and finished on the lead lap in just 19 events. This is all for a driver with no announced plans for 2022 when he should theoretically be hitting his prime according to research done by David Smith of Motorsports Analytics.

Yet in the midst of this bad season, Almirola has had one bright spot – results in the high horsepower package at short-flat venues. Outside of superspeedways, these race types have been his calling card and it has been no different in 2021 with a win at New Hampshire and a sixth-place finish at Richmond in the spring. In last weekend’s race at Martinsville, without the aid of pit strategy, Almirola was able to race his way into the top five before ending his day in sixth. Now he returns to a track where he has found the top 10 in four of his previous seven starts and back-to-back finishes just outside the top 10. This race provides ample opportunity for Almirola to leave a fresh impression on both potential teams, as well as Smithfield, and improve his chances of driving for a top-tier team once again in 2022.

The Latest Sports Betting Content from Stokastic Odds

Kyle Larson (+140) to Win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Reminder, a driver does not necessarily have to win on Sunday in order to take the championship, they merely have to beat their three competitors. That said, BetMGM is fully anticipating Larson to win both this race and the championship on Sunday at the lowest odds on each betting board. It goes without saying, if a better is going to wager that one of the final four championship drivers will outright win this event, they also need to make the further investment in their odds to win the championship since doing the first goes hand in hand with the latter.

Regardless, even if Larson does not win his 10th race of 2021, it should be no shock to see Larson finish the best out of himself, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. In this event last season, Cliff Daniels gave Jimmie Johnson a fast car that he was able to drive from 26th up to fifth by the end of the 312 laps. Fast forward to this past spring, and Larson rolls off the grid technically in second, but practically in 33rd after failing technical inspection twice. By the end of the first segment, Larson was already back in the top 10. However, despite the second-fastest car from laps 78-156 and again in laps 157-234, two pit-road penalties would hinder Larson’s day until he finally finished fifth. Had Larson not been fighting traffic all day, chances are he could have passed Logano and or Truex and won his second race of the season.

One of the better aspects of Larson’s game in 2021 has been in-race adjustments made by crew chief Cliff Daniels. With Friday’s practice session, the No. 5 team will not need the first segment to gauge their vehicle and make necessary changes. Daniels can set this car up to perform well, right out the gate and force the other three playoff contenders to play catchup once the green flag waves much like what happened at Nashville and Charlotte. If a book offers odds to win the pole on Saturday evening, betting on Larson to do so feels like a winning bet already. The only issue, if it is even considered one, is these slim odds. For those reading this on Friday, parlaying Larson’s championship victory alongside Austin Cindric’s win on Saturday (+350) gives the better +1137 odds currently and pays out $618.75 on a $50 bet.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com