With the Fourth of July comes the most storied sporting event in American History. The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has taken place on the Fourth of July every year since 1916. With Joey Chestnut looking to rack up his 14th title, the betting markets rightfully juice the American hero. However, several bets stand out ahead of the contest. Let’s dive into the best betting picks.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Guide
Joey Chestnut Outright Winner -3000 (BetMGM)
Taking the chalk here is the only logical option. Despite laying enormous juice, betting Chestnut to win the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is nearly-free money. Chestnut has won the competition every year since 2007, except for a slip-up in 2015. Recently, Chestnut has elevated his performances to a new level. Since 2015, Chestnut has won the contest by at least ten hot dogs. He has also eclipsed 70 hot dogs in five consecutive competitions. In 2017 and 2018, Carmen Cincotti notched 60 and 64 hot dogs, giving Chestnut somewhat of a test. However, Cincotti hasn’t competed since and will not participate in this year’s contest. Without Cincotti, Darren Breeden has finished second with 50 and 42 hot dogs in the last two years. Outside of a freak accident, Chestnut takes home this contest again here.
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Field in Women’s Hot Dog Contest +450 (DraftKings)
Tragically, women’s hot dog eating phenom Miki Sudo will not participate in this year’s event. Sudo took down the women’s Nathan Hot Dog Eating Contest seven times and currently holds the women’s world record of 48.5 hot dogs. With her departure, the women’s division is wide open. Current favorite Michelle Lesco did not participate last year, but she racked up 32, 28, and 26.5 hot dogs in her three previous contests. This year’s competition features several known commodities, as well as new faces. Sarah Rodriguez ranks 26th in the world and has eaten 15+ hot dogs on the regional scene. She also did not compete last year. Larall Marie Mele is another stalwart of the division. She hasn’t bested 19 hot dogs since 2018, but a step forward is possible. Last year, she finished second in the weaker field. With Lesco generally finishing in the mid-20s, the margin of victory is smaller in the female division. With so many new faces in the women’s division, an upset is possible here. At +450, sprinkling a wager on the field makes sense.
Over 73.5 Hot Dogs Eaten by Joey Chestnut -165 (BetMGM)
As mentioned above, Chestnut has eaten at least 70 hot dogs in each of the last five years. In the last three, Chestnut hit 74, 72, and 75, breaking his own world record last year twice. A true professional, Chestnut constantly pushes the boundary of what is possible in competitive eating. In a recent interview, Chestnut described his process and admitted to eclipsing 80 hot dogs in training. Even with the juice, Chestnut over 73.5 hot dogs remains the sharp side of this bet.
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