The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Dallas Mavericks for the first time this season tonight. Both squads are mired toward the bottom of the stacked Western Conference, as Dallas ranks 10th and Oklahoma City ranks 12th. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting picks markets for this one, here are my key trends and predictions for the matchup.
NBA Betting Picks and Odds | Thunder vs. Mavericks
Thunder vs. Mavericks Game Info
Oklahoma City Thunder (14-20) at Dallas Mavericks (17-16)
Date: Wednesday, Mar. 3, 2021
Start Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Center — Dallas
The biggest storyline heading into tonight’s matchup is Luka Doncic. He has been downgraded from questionable to doubtful for the matchup, which is Dallas’ last before the All-Star Break. Despite the news, the Mavericks remain the favorite across the market.
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Thunder vs. Mavericks Spread Trends and Prediction: Thunder +4.5
The trends point to considerable value on the Thunder. Dallas may have the better record, but Oklahoma City has been the better team against the spread. Their 18-15-1 record against the spread ranks eighth-best, while Dallas’ 14-19 record against the spread ranks fifth-worst.
Also, the Mavericks have gone 3-10 against the spread when playing as home favorites, yet the Thunder have gone 11-5 against the spread when playing as road underdogs.
My NBA betting model, which uses pace and efficiency data weighted by rest and recent performance, has a different take. It expects the Mavericks to win by a 5.6-point margin, but since it doesn’t adjust for injuries, I’m willing to ignore that estimate.
I thought the Mavericks could cover if Doncic played, but since he is now doubtful, the Thunder are the smart play against the spread.
Thunder vs. Mavericks Total Trends and Prediction: Under 220.5
Unfortunately, the trends are much less conclusive when it comes to the total. Oklahoma City’s over percentage (50%) sits right at the league average, while Dallas’ figure (48.5%) sits just a hair below.
That said, Dallas’ over percentage jumps to 61.5% when they play as road favorites. Oklahoma City’s number doesn’t move at all when we adjust for their status as a road underdog, as the over has hit in exactly 50% of those games, too.
My model predicts a final tally of just 215.8 points, which sits well below this total. Notably, it has fallen by roughly 2.5 points since earlier this afternoon. I would keep bidding this down, as Dallas will struggle to put up their share of the points without Doncic to guide their offense.
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Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
The trends point to value on the Thunder tonight, and I have to side with them now that Doncic is doubtful to play. If you agree, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to get Oklahoma City with the best juice (-106). Should you disagree, you can get the best line over at BetMGM, PointsBet or William Hill (-110). These lines may move as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal.
Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
The trends are inconclusive here, but with my model favoring the under — and Doncic’s injury — I am siding with it, too. You can get the highest total over at BetMGM, and even though it doesn’t have the best juice, it’s not worth burning a half point for the line you’ll get at SugarHouse or DraftKings Sportsbook. Should you favor the over, FanDuel Sportsbook ahs the lowest total at the best juice (-106). As always, these lines tend to fluctuate, and you can follow any developments directly through OddsShopper.
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