Kicking off Wild Card Weekend, the NFL features three football games with staggered start times. While each team has already played 16 times, edges are plentiful in the NFL betting markets. Let’s get into some NFL betting picks and odds based on the OddShopper tool and some best bets for the Sunday Slate on Wild Card Weekend.
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NFL Betting Picks: Wild Card Weekend | Sunday Slate
NFL Picks: Pittsburgh -6 (DraftKings)
While the Pittsburgh Steelers dropped four of their last five games, they still enter Wild Card weekend as six point favorites over the Cleveland Browns. Despite their recent struggles, the Steelers find themselves holding a number of edges over Cleveland. First of all, Cleveland also struggled down the stretch. In their final two games, they lost to the Jets and only beat the Steelers by two points in a game where Pittsburgh rested Ben Roethlisberger.
Looking at potential edges on the Pittsburgh side, Roethlisberger will face a Cleveland defense weakened by a Covid-19 outbreak. Cleveland will play this game without their top two corners Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson, who remain on the Covid-19 list. Roethlisberger and the Steelers already throw the ball at the second highest rate in football (64.2%). Despite his recent struggles, Roethlisberger finished the 2020 season how with a 341-yard, three-touchdown game against the Colts before sitting out the team’s final game of the season.
On the other side, Mayfield enters a buzzsaw of a matchup against a fierce Pittsburgh defense after losing multiple pass catchers to Covid-19 absences. With Jarvis Landry and company set to play, Mayfield still must find ways to beat a defense allowing the fourth fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL (5.9). Making matters worse, Pittsburgh also plays solid run defense. While Nick Chubb eclipsed 100 yards against Pittsburgh last week, the Steelers held Cleveland to 75 total rushing yards in their first meeting this season.
With advantages on both sides of the ball, Pittsburgh looks like a strong bet on the Sunday slate for Wild Card weekend.
NFL Picks: Marquise Brown Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
Easily one of the softest markets at sportsbooks, player props provide a variety of edges on a given slate. When cross-referenced with the Awesemo projected stats, Brown stands out as a particular value in the player prop market on Sunday for Wild Card Weekend. Listed at 46.5 yards at DraftKings, the Awesemo player projections slate Brown for 57.2 yards receiving. In a must-win contest, expect Brown to receiver a sizeable workload.
After starting the year slowly, Brown has re-emerged as a preferred pass catching weapon for Lamar Jackson down the stretch. On the year, Brown boasts a 25.2% target share, while receiving 37.8% of the team’s air yards. Brown also draws the top matchup in the entire playoffs. Of all the teams to make the playoffs, the Titans allow a league-worst 7.0 yards per pass attempt. This is also reflected in the game total, which sits at a slate leading 54.5-points.
With game environment and a condensed target share working in his favor, Brown’s receiving prop remains a strong bet on the Sunday slate for Wild Card weekend.
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