UFC Vegas 41 features a 14-fight card, and it has a main event that has switched weight classes three times this week. The card has a lot of good bets from a prop standpoint, and as always when shopping for the best UFC betting odds and lines, make sure to use Awesemo OddsShopper to find the top odds at various sportsbooks. It is easily the best tool when it comes to shopping for the top ROI odds for the fights, and it will save bettors a lot of money in the long run. Let’s dig into some of the UFC betting picks for Vegas 41: Costa vs. Vettori.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 41: Expert UFC Betting Picks
Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori
Paulo Costa in his press conference said there was no way he could make the contracted weight of 185 pounds and apparently agreed to fight Marvin Vettori at a 195 catchweight. A few days later the UFC confirmed that this fight would be taking place at light heavyweight, 205 pounds. This seems like a massive advantage for Costa, as he was enormous for 185 and has had issues making the weight before. Vettori is also a rather large 185-pounder, but it is hard to image him not being at a massive weight disadvantage come fight time.
With both fighters coming of championship fight losses against Israel Adesanya, they look to get back on track a weight class up at 205. The new weight class will theoretically be a massive edge for Costa, as he will not have to cut down the extra 20 pounds. On top of that, he was already going to have a size advantage over Vettori, but this will just add to it. Prior to losing to Adesanya, Costa was a finishing machine, winning four of his first five UFC fights by knockout. He also came close to finishing Yoel Romero, who is incredibly durable. Vettori, on the other hand, tends to go to decision more. However, this fight is -175 to end inside the distance.
When Costa does not get the early finish, he slows down dramatically. His power is tremendous, so he can still end the fight at any moment, but three of his four finishes came in the second round, and he was visibly slowing down. If he had not finished, the next round would have been very dicey for him. In theory, if Costa does not finish Vettori early, Costa could be so spent that Vettori will take him down and ground and pound him out. Under 4.5 rounds at -136 still has some value, and Costa has only made it to a third round once in his UFC career. With these guys up a weight class, Costa is live for a finish early and Vettori is live for a finish late.
The Bet: Vettori/Costa Under 4.5 Rounds -136 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jun-yong Park vs. Gregory Rodriguez
Jun-yong Park will be in action this weekend against Gregory Rodriguez, and all three of his UFC wins have come by decision. He does have a submission loss, but Rodriguez is not much of a submission threat. Park likes to take opponents down and grind out fights, but his finishing prowess is not there. He is a classic “position before submission” fighter and would rather have great position and land ground and pound than look to end the fight. Rodriguez is a durable fighter as well. He has some power in his hands, but a Rodriguez knockout does not seem like a likely scenario. There is a good chance that this will go to the scorecards and one fighter will win 29-28 in a wrestling-based decision.
The Bet: Park/Rodriguez Fight Goes the Distance -137 (William Hill)
Karma Worthy vs. Jai Herbert
Karma Worthy will be taking on Jai Herbert this weekend in a battle to see whose chin is worse. Both men have documented durability issues. Worthy has back-to-back first-round knockout losses, which inspire absolutely zero confidence that his chin can handle much more punishment going forwards. Herbert, on the other hand, has been finished in both of his two UFC fights, losing one by knockout and one by submission. The fight is -330 to end inside the distance, so even Vegas agrees someone will not make it to the scorecards. Worthy and Herbert both carry a lot of power in their hands, and the chances of one of them landing flush before the start of Round 2 is very high. Whether the fight finishes in the first or not, getting plus money, especially +180, is a risk worth taking on a fight that is a massive favorite to end before the final bell.
The Bet: Worth/Herbert Won’t Start Round 2 +180 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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