This slate starts with the highest priced pitcher of the night, as there aren’t many options that can reach his potential in tournaments. After Kershaw, pitching is a little bit ugly, but we’ll try to sort through a few guys below. If you’re looking for analysis on each game, check out this morning’s MLB Strategy Video. Awesemo will update this article later in the day with some notes and analysis, so make sure to check back before lock!
Clayton Kershaw ($14,000 DK/$11,400 FD)
Kershaw’s price on DK is not very appealing, but he seems like an overwhelming favorite to end the night as the highest raw-points scorer as far as pitching goes. The Whiffs/Swing% is down for him this year, but I’m not all that concerned with him for this matchup and neither is Vegas, as the Marlins have a minuscule 2.4 implied team total which is one of the lowest we’ve seen on the year. With the lack of options on this slate, Kershaw makes for a great play on FD and a solid SP1 on DK if you can get some value bats you like.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,600 DK/$7,100 FD)
Rodriguez has been great at getting swings and misses this year, and when he’s been on, he’s been almost impossible to hit. He ranks top-15 in Whiffs/Swing%, posted a 19.3 Swinging-Strike% in his last start, and has allowed only 23% hard-contact on the young season. Going up against (likely) 9 righties in the Blue Jays’ lineup, this is still a risky spot for E-Rod, but the savings you get plus some of the free-swingers he’ll see (Martin, Hernandez, Maile, Grichuk) give him some extra K-upside.
Jacob Faria ($6,300 DK/$5,900 FD)
Faria has shown some signs of life in is after starting off with a couple rough starts against the Red Sox, which can be forgiven because they were scoring 10+ runs seemingly every night regardless of the pitcher they were facing. He has a 10+ Swinging-Strike% in his last two starts and the Orioles continue to be a great team to target against with starting pitching, as they rank top-2 in Swinging-Strike%, O-Swing%, and Swing%. For this price on DK, I’ll take a shot on Faria where I think he has a bunch of upside in tournaments.
I agree with Jake about Kershaw having a great chance to wind up as the highest scoring pitcher. If a value stack goes off there’s a good chance you need him to win. I also think that Rodriguez has good strikeout potential, but is risky. Faria I think is a good play in GPPs. Another pitcher I really like is Trevor Bauer vs. the Cubs.