MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring daily fantasy baseball projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.
Check out more of Awesemo’s daily fantasy baseball tools and projections.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 27
Lucas Giolito: CWS vs. DET — DraftKings $9,500; FanDuel $10,600
The White Sox welcome the Tigers to Guaranteed Rate Field, with Lucas Giolito drawing the star. Last season, Giolito is averaging 14.9 DraftKings and 27 FanDuel points over four starts this season, and he is looking to rebound from his recent destruction by the Red Sox.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Giolito a 27.6% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and an 8.4% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. The top projected pitching option on both sites for Tuesday’s main slate, Awesemo’s daily fantasy baseball point projections forecast Giolito for 22.99 DraftKings and 38.67 FanDuel points. With the savings provided on DraftKings, Giolito is a 13.6% top-two value, though his higher cost on FanDuel significantly inhibits his value there, as does his high MLB DFS ownership projections.
Due to face five switch-hitters and three righties, Giolito requires command from both sides of the plate throughout the Detroit order. He had 12.64 K/9, a 34.7% strikeout rate, .180 average against, 11.2% walk rate, 1.10 WHIP and 1.00 FIP against lefties last year, and those numbers were only slightly worse against righties. With switch-hitters Robbie Grossman (first), Willi Castro (second) and Jeimer Candelario (fourth) and lefty Akil Baddoo (seventh) hitting a .478 ISO off right-handed pitching, the opposite-handed threats loom throughout the Detroit order. Against right-handed pitching since last season, Detroit has a .223 average against, 27.9% strikeout rate, .375 slugging rate, 79 wRC+ and a 13.6% HR/FB rate. Despite his latest dud against Boston, Giolito proves a considerably worthy option against a mediocre Tigers roster on Tuesday’s massive slate.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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Ian Anderson: ATL vs CHC — DraftKings $8,600; FanDuel $8,400
The Braves assign Ian Anderson to the mound in the second game of a homestand with the Cubs. Anderson’s rookie season in 2020 produced 11.41 K/9, 1.08 WHIP and 2.54 FIP. Averaging 16.4 DraftKings and 30.25 FanDuel points through four starts, Anderson’s matchup with the strikeout-laden Cubs batting order could garner significant daily fantasy totals. Anderson’s daily fantasy baseball point projections for 19.73 DraftKings and 33.92 FanDuel points make him one of the top options at starting pitcher on both sites. His mid-high range makes Anderson a 12.2% top-two value on DraftKings and a 2.7% top-value on FanDuel. Thankfully, Awesemo’s MLB DFS ownership projections of 17.2% DraftKings and 8.6% on FanDuel show that Anderson may wind up flying under-the-radar on Tuesday’s wealthy slate of pitching options.
Facing just two left-handed hitters in Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward, along with switch-hitter Ian Happ, Anderson is in a quality matchup. The Cubs over the past season have a .222 batting average, 26.3% strikeout rate, .316 on-base percentage and 95 wRC+ against righties. Although Anderson is giving up home runs at a higher rate this season, the Cubs are also striking out more, and Anderson has the ability to take advantage of the whiff potential.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
Jose Quintana: LAA at TEX — DraftKings $6,500; FanDuel $6,700
Jose Quintana faces the Rangers and is a bargain on both sites. His strikeout rate is up significantly from the 20.4% of last year, and he found his rhythm in his last start (also against the Rangers) for 21.7 DraftKings and 36 FanDuel points. Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Quintana a 10.3% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 4.6% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. Quintana’s MLB DFS point projections of 16.19 DraftKings and 28.66 FanDuel points make him a resounding value given his salary cost. With daily fantasy baseball ownership projections of 20.9% DraftKings and 9% on FanDuel, Quintana’s savings are no secret among the field, but he is not projecting to be outrageously owned.
The Rangers slated for six right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter. With right-handed power in Nick Solak (second) hitting a .242 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, navigating the top of the order will be key for Quintana. However, the Rangers as a whole have just a .219 batting average, 25.6% strikeout rate, .131 ISO, 75 wRC+ and a 14% HR/FB rate. So long as he continues to keep the fly balls down, Quintana is a fantastic value with few spots in the Rangers order looming as threats.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value A
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