MLB DFS Picks, Ownership, HRs & Top Stacks for DraftKings + FanDuel

The morning MLB DFS scramble is on for today’s main slate of day games. Thursday’s action has an eight-game main slate on both sites, taking place in the afternoon and covering a handful of extremely interesting contests. For a short getaway-day slate, there is a robust selection of pitchers as well as several strong spots for bats and plenty of home run options to look at. Figuring out the right way to pay up to top-end starters while rostering quality bats is becoming more challenging as the sites are catching up in some areas with pricing, though discounts can still be found, as several of the top ranked-stacks are projected to be under-owned on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 11.80

Boston Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts — 6.75

Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 11.21

Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 10.06

Houston Astros: Jose Altuve — 10.56

Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 12.31

Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Vogelbach — 2.43

Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 12.41

New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 12.26

New York Yankees: Mike Ford — 5.36

Oakland Athletics: Matt Chapman — 11.66

Philadelphia Phillies: Brad Miller — 7.05

St. Louis Cardinals: Dylan Carlson — 6.61

Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun — 11.23

Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 9.31

Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman — 4.08

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

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MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

Thursday’s slate has a nice selection of pitchers, led at the top by Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. He has been spectacular this season, putting up a 44.3% strikeout rate across his 37 innings, on his way to a 1.78 xFIP and a 0.72 WHIP that has him among league leaders. Cole has been one of the best pitchers in the game since he was pitching for the opposing Astros, there is little to worry about in most matchups, though he does yield the occasional long ball. The Astros active roster leads baseball this year, with just a 20.1% strikeout rate against righties. They have a .172 team ISO that is among league leaders in the split, while creating runs 10% better than average. The lineup is high quality and contains several fearsome hitters, but Cole is elite even among the elite arms in the game, he should overcome and overwhelm.

Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler projects well in my personal model and is one of Awesemo’s top ranked starters. He is in a matchup against the swing-happy Brewers and stands an excellent chance of putting up a strong start with a plus strikeout number. Wheeler specializes in keeping the ball in the yard, which has the Brewers’ power numbers completely surpressed, and he has been striking out far more hitters this season. Wheeler was at just an 18.4% strikeout rate over 71 innings last season. This year that number has spiked to 26.6%. He is throwing more called strikes (14.3%) and getting more swinging strikes (12.0%) this season for a CSW% of 26.3%. The Brewers are currently the fourth-worst in the league, striking out 26.7% of the time against right-handed pitching. They have displayed minimal pop with their .147 team ISO and they create runs 18% worse than average in the split. Wheeler is an excellent option for some salary savings and provides a modicum of ownership relief as well. Brandon Woodruff is in play for MLB DFS use on the other side of what should be a fun pitching duel today.

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Mets starter Taijuan Walker is not in the easiest spot, but he projects well and provides salary savings and positive leverage across the board. Walker is facing a St. Louis team that sits 13th in the league with a 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The team has a quality .168 ISO and has hit 33 home runs, among league leaders, this year in the split, but they create runs 11% worse than average. There is upside for a pitcher who has shown some improvement and harnessing of his talents in putting up a 23.9% strikeout rate with a 4.33 xFIP this season. At just $7,000 on DraftKings, Walker is in play as an SP2 option, and he is not entirely off the board for $7,500 on FanDuel, despite stronger options on the single pitcher site. Walker has walked too many hitters this season, but if he reins in the control, the swinging strike rate has jumped from 7.8% last season to 10.7%, while his called strike rate is a consistent 19.5%, indicating some solidly sneaky upside potential.

NYM — 1-5 — McNeil — Lindor — Conforto — Alonso — Smith

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/06/2021″ team=”mets”]

Backing up their potentially sneaky starting pitcher, the Mets lineup is looking to get on track in a game against hittable starter John Gant. This year Gant has a 5.07 xFIP and a 1.56 WHIP while striking out just 18.3% of hitters and walking 16.5% over his 25 innings. In 15 innings last season, Gant posted a high-quality 29.5% strikeout rate out of the bullpen, but made no starts. The year before he also threw exclusively as a reliever, putting up 66 innings and a 22.3% strikeout rate while walking 12.6% of hitters and posting a 3.73 xFIP. Gant has not transitioned well to starting so far, and the Mets bats are bubbling just below the surface of a breakout. As a team, they have struck out just 22.7% of the time against righties this year, sixth best in baseball, but they have just a .127 ISO and 16 home runs in the split, numbers that are sure to regress toward the norm as the season rolls along.

Jeff McNeil is a career .313/.380/.490 hitter who is off to a .230/.337/.351 start to his season. He has an excellent hit tool and is incredible at avoiding the strikeout. Even in his slow start to 2021, McNeil has just an 8.1% strikeout rate, down from the 11.5% he posted last season. He has hit two home runs in his 86 plate appearances this season, and has plenty of room for more. McNeil hit 23 home runs in 567 opportunities in 2019, adding four in 209 chances last year. He makes a high-end leadoff man, particularly at just $2,800 on FanDuel and $4,400 on DraftKings.

Superstar Francisco Lindor has been excellent for boosting barber businesses around the New York Metro area, as Mets fans continually tear their hair out over the high-priced acquisition’s total lack of production through the first month of the season. Lindor has just a .157/.276/.202 slash with a .045 ISO and one home run over his first 106 plate appearances with the Mets. He has created runs 53% worse than average in the sample. There is nothing to panic about here. This is an established superstar who is simply slow getting started. Lindor has a career .282/.344/.480 slash with a .198 ISO. Prior to the short 2020 season, Lindor was coming off three straight years of more than 30 home runs, peaking with 38 in 2018. In 2019 he hit 32 home runs and stole 22 bases in his 654 plate appearances with Cleveland, he is fantasy gold and should not be skipped in MLB DFS lineups when priced down for a slump.

Lefty outfielder Michael Conforto is an excellent bat for both his hit tool and underappreciated power. Last season Conforto made 233 plate appearances, going .322/.412/.515 and hitting nine home runs with a .193 ISO. He created runs 57% better than average, but is a $3,100 player on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings, despite likely hitting third today. This is a major discount on a high-end bat, though Conforto is another Mets player slow to get rolling this year. He has a .235/.374/.383 slash to start the year, hitting just two home runs and posting a .148 ISO, there is plenty of reason to expect him to get right soon.

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Slugger Pete Alonso burst onto the scene in 2019, destroying 53 home runs in his 693 plate appearances and smashing through the rookie record set by crosstown rival Aaron Judge. Alonso has disappointed Mets fans so far in his follow up. While he did hit 16 home runs in just 239 chances last year, his slash plummeted from .260/.358/.583 to a lowly .231/.326/.490 and his ISO cut from .323 to .260 (still very good). This season, Alonso is off to a .281/.369/.517 start, but the power has dipped again to .236 so far. Still, the boosted contact and on-base numbers are excellent to see, and Alonso has hit five home runs while creating runs 45% better than average. This is a high-quality power bat with an excellent chance of going deep against a shaky starter.

Dominic Smith brings a high-end hit tool and some left-handed thunder to the plate for the Mets. He had a 197 plate appearance debut in 2019, putting up 11 home runs in the sample while going .282/.355/.525. In the short 199 plate appearance 2020 season, Smith improved in every aspect, hitting 10 home runs and putting up a .316/.377/.616 slash with a .299 ISO. He created runs 65% better than average last year and is a wildly underrated player. Smith costs just $2,800 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings, he is a terrific mid-lineup option.

Kevin Pillar, Jonathan Villar and James McCann are all quality veteran bats who can be mixed-in at the back end of a mid-lineup stack. Of the group, if he is hitting eighth, Villar would make the most sense as a wraparound option, while the other two would be plays more for a bases-clearing long ball at extremely low ownership. McCann is interesting for catcher use on DraftKings, where he is pulling less than two percent ownership in the morning update. He has a .206/.270/.250 slash and one home run early in his Mets career, but there is more upside. Pillar is filling in for injured Brandon Nimmo, and has put up a .262/.295/.429 with a .167 ISO and an 18.2% strikeout rate so far, while hitting two home runs in his 44 plate appearances.

HR Call: Pete Alonso – New York Mets

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.