Monday provided a curious slate where Padres all around helped win the night. Yu Darvish was sensational in a difficult matchup versus the Dodgers, as he fanned 11, while simultaneously picking up a quality start with six strong innings of two-hit ball. And despite only six runs, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth did enough damage with their home runs that put them in the winning lineup on both sites. We’re actually going to spend a majority of the day rehashing yesterday’s fantasy baseball slate, followed by a few MLB DFS picks for tonight on the way out. So with that, this is your Slate Starter with expert MLB DFS picks today for Tuesday’s 14-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Slate Starter: Fantasy Baseball Picks & Strategy | June 22
All It Takes Is One
If you’re an Awesemo+ member and have the Fantasy Cruncher add-on, consider upgrading to FC Pro for access to Lineup Study. With easy access to breaking down every aspect of DraftKings tournaments immediately after a slate ends, there are so many nuances you can learn to improve your play. Whether it’s seeing how the winning lineup was constructed, what their most-used stacks were, or how your exposures compare to some of the top players in the world such as No. 1-ranked Alex Baker himself, you can learn how to build better lineups the next time around with a few simple clicks.
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One thing that’s become glaringly obvious with the help of Lineup Study is that in MLB DFS tournaments these past few years — and in all of DFS, to be honest — all it takes is one lineup. In a sport such as baseball with so much variance, embracing the volatility by spreading your net a little wider and stacking up multiple teams in a variety of ways makes a lot of sense. And with prize pools so concentrated to the first place, creating a portfolio of lineups that is best suited to aim for that top spot with little regard for min-cashes is the way to go.
Let’s take a look at all 148 lineups from last night’s winner of the $5 on DraftKings, “JBCJBCJBC,” who lapped the field with a winning score of 208.36 to take home $100,000:
The first thing that sticks out is how JBC (for short) was more than triple the field on Jake Odorizzi, who, along with being at the field on Yu Darvish, gave them multiple opportunities to try and combine the right stacks with the best two pitchers on the slate. While the stack itself will be the most important piece to achieving upside, it can be difficult to overcome two massive performances relative to the rest of the slate like we had in Darvish and Odorizzi.
The second thing that sticks out is that 147 of the 148 lineups used $49,800 or more of the total $50,000 salary cap. Utilizing a cheap pitcher such as Odorizzi in bulk gave them the flexibility to pay up for more expensive hitters, such as the main Astros hitters, who were his four highest-owned batters:
It also gave him the ability to overpay for the Padres bats, who were exceptionally low-owned due to their elevated prices and difficult matchup versus Julio Urías. Without the Machado/Cronenworth combination, there was no winning a large-field tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel yesterday.
But perhaps most noticeable of all, JBC’s only lineup in the top 800 of this contest was the winning lineup:
The 4-4 Astros/Padres stack combined with both pitchers from those teams led to one runaway lineup that nabbed first in this tournament. If you take that lineup away, it’s not only a losing night, but most likely a large losing night. But JBC’s decision to cast a wide net with various stack types — while also hitting on pitching — led to a massive score.
The moral of the story? The fine line between winning and losing can be even finer in MLB DFS. JBC hit on pitching, they were overweight to the highest-performing outfield duo on the slate in Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez, and they were still on the verge of a losing night if it weren’t for the sneaky Padres stack coming through in the late-night hammer. That’s why it’s so important to focus on the fantasy baseball process over the results, as the results can be poor even on nights where you get so many other things right. So keep utilizing the incredible features at Awesemo such as the Top Pitchers Tool and Top Stacks Tool (free today for all users) to get a leg up on the field, and give yourself the best opportunity you can to make a runaway lineup of your own.
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Final Thoughts for MLB DFS Lineups
- Tonight’s 14-gamer looks to be benign in the weather department, with only some light rain in the New York City forecast for the Yankees and Mets games. We haven’t had much weather drama to deal with in the past few weeks, but it’s bound to happen here eventually, which is why you need to be getting notifications from the NewzGod in the premium baseball Slack channel. The man will keep you apprised of lineups, late-scratches and problem spots in the days and weeks to come, so turn them on now and save yourself the hassle later.
- The talk of the day will be “spin rates,” as multiple pitchers with historically massive strikeout numbers will be forced to pitch substance-free. The likes of Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Lucas Giolito will be discussed at length as to how they’ll be affected by the midseason rule change, and it’s hard not to be concerned. Still, pitchers like Cole or Zack Wheeler that still carry an average four-seamer velocity of 97.3 mph should have fewer question marks than you’d otherwise think.
- In the stacks department, it will be right back to the well on the Astros in Camden Yards for the second-straight night. With 27 other teams on tonight’s slate, it should be much easier to stray away from that chalk spot, although it’s hard to poke any holes in a matchup versus Jorge Lopez, who is giving up a robust 10.4% barrel percentage on the season.
- Just play Joc Pederson.
Check out today’s MLB Strategy Show, with expert MLB DFS tips, strategy, fantasy baseball picks and predictions for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re live at 11 a.m. ET.
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