Saturday, Aug. 20, kicks off the weekend with a full day of baseball culminating in a nine-game main slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (8/20)
Main Slate: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RHP Justin Dunn — 4.6 implied runs
On DraftKings the broken salaries for the Giants who are playing in Coors Field have made a mess of the slate. However, the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has identified the equally awful salaries assigned to Pittsburgh as a counter-move to the San Francisco chalk. Justin Dunn will be on the mound tonight making his third start of the season. Cincinnati acquired Dunn from the Mariners as part of the return for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker.
The soon to be 26-year-old was drafted out of high school, but he would not have commanded much of a signing bonus going in the 37th round so he opted to play for Boston College. After three strong seasons there, he was the 19th overall selection in the 2016 MLB Draft by the Mets. Dunn ended up in Seattle as part of the Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz deal along with outfielder Jarred Kelenic. After middling results in the minors and in The Show, the Mariners decided to move on, while the Reds opted to give Dunn a change of scenery as well as taking a chance that surgery would help fix the shoulder issues on his throwing arm that have plagued him over the last couple of years.
Dunn made eight starts in the minors culminating in a 91-pitch outing before being called up to the Reds. He has been mediocre in two starts allowing four home runs with just six strikeouts in 8.1 innings. Switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds is a top option today along with Ben Gamel and Oneil Cruz. This trio should be grouped closely in the batting order which will increase their synergy, as well as being a nice secondary stack to differentiate from the Coors Field crowd.
Late Slate: San Diego Padres vs. RHP Josiah Gray — 5.0 implied runs
Josiah Gray did not face the Padres when they came through Washington last weekend, which was lucky for him. Instead he had a pair of outing against the Cubs and while he cruised his way to 15 strikeouts, he also added another three home runs to his league leading total. The Stokastic Top Batters Tool loves that he is ceding 2.36 home runs per nine innings, with opposing lefties and righties getting theirs.
Only Brandon Drury (0-3) and Jorge Alfaro (1-3) have been in the batter’s box against the 24-year-old. Manny Machado and Gray’s former teammates Juan Soto and Josh Bell should be able to produce a couple extra-base hits between them tonight, plus once Gray hits the showers, the weak Washington reliever corps will be taking over pouring gasoline on the fire. Trent Grisham also profiles well in this matchup with Gray.
Early Slate: Milwaukee Brewers at RHP Marcus Stroman — 4.1 implied runs
There is some risk of rain, though with this being an afternoon game, their is more flexibility to look a weather break between an potential thunderstorms. For those who are risk averse, the bailout option is to migrate players from this game to those in Baltimore with the Red Sox and Orioles coming off a 25-run game.
Marcus Stroman was the recipient of four unearned runs in his last start in Washington. All told in his last two appearances he has allowed eight total runs to the Nationals in 9.2 innings. Prior to that, St. Louis got him him for a pair of home runs and it seems like the 31-year-old journeyman is dancing on the edge of disaster. While he is a groundball pitcher with a 51.5% rate over his last 1,000 batters faced, Stroman also allows his fair share of home runs. Hunter Renfroe (.240 ISO), Rowdy Tellez (.244 ISO) and Willy Adames (.225 ISO) are the trio to target with the power upside they have demonstrated over the last two years against right-handed pitchers.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Logan Gilbert at Oakland Athletics — 3.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $9,800
August has been a rough one for Logan Gilbert and while some of this could be attributed to him throwing a career high 138.1 innings, he also faced the Yankees in two of his three starts giving up a baker’s dozen worth of runs. Aside from that offensive outburst, the 25-year-old has had a sterling sophomore campaign allowing four runs three times and three or fewer in his 17 other starts. Oakland has scored the second fewest runs in the league, while also being the fifth worst offense against right-handed pitchers. Gilbert should be in the mix for a quality start which makes him appealing on FanDuel and his ridiculously low salary on DraftKings removes a lot of the risk if he “only” manages 17-20 fantasy points.
Secondary Target: RHP Joe Musgrove vs. Washington Nationals — 5.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,500
Joe Musgrove has allowed a home run in each of his five starts since the All-Star Break logging 29 innings with a 4.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 27 strikeouts. Nothing has changed dramatically with his pitch mix or velocity and with a 4.48 FIP, we know he has been somewhat unlucky with hit sequencing in this stretch. Musgrove did not face the Nationals last weekend in Washington, so this will be a nice opportunity for a “get right” performance. Now that Juan Soto and Josh Bell are in San Diego, the Nationals offense has slid all the way down to the third worst against right-handed pitching, ahead of only the dreadful Detroit and crummy Cincinnati bats.
Former Padre Luke Voit was scratched last night with a sore back, though he hopes to play tonight. The 31-year-old is Washington’s most accomplished option against righties along with hot hitting 30-year-old rookie Joey Meneses. Sorry Washington fans, at least you have the Commanders and their new field general Carson Wentz. Okay, that was just mean — but also funny.
Early Target: LHP Reid Detmers at Detroit Tigers — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $9,000
Reid Detmers has been stellar since being sent back down to Triple-A Salt Lake at the end of June where he promptly struck out 14 batters. Keep in mind this was just six starts after he no-hit Tampa Bay. Since being recalled he has averaged 6.0 innings across half a dozen starts ceding just two longballs while rolling with an 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings rate. While the Tigers are an abomination against right-handed hurlers, their offense upgrades to terrible when facing southpaws as evidenced by their 85 wRC+ compared to their 70 wRC+ against righties.
Additional Opportunities
Logan Gilbert has what appears to be a very reactionary 4.5 strikeout prop that is based on a couple of recent matchups against the Yankess. The Stokastic MLB Player Props Tool has him for 5.7 strikeouts and a 68% of surpassing the over. In four of his last seven starts, Gilbert has five or more strikeouts. In the two games against New York he managed only four total whiffs, but in the third “failed” effort he still had four punchouts in Texas. The projected lineup for Oakland has a two-year trailing strikeout rate of 25.0% against right-handed hurlers. If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Zack Wheeler vs. New York Mets (Early, Game 1)
- RHP Gerrit Cole vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Early)
- RHP Spencer Strider vs. Houston Astros (Main)
Other Hitting Options
- Jo Adell at LHP Tyler Alexander (Early)
- Rafael Devers at RHP Kyle Bradish (Afternoon)
- Coors Field Extravaganza (Both teams, All Slates)
- Paul Goldschmidt at LHP Madison Bumgarner (Evening)
- Mookie Betts vs. LHP Braxton Garrett (Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There is low to medium precipitation risk throughout the Midwest and East Coast. None of the games seem to be in any danger of being postponed, but there could be some in-game delays. Check the forecasts closer to lock for each of the Saturday slates for a better gauge of how things are shaping up.
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