Saturday, Aug. 27, sees the MLB ceding the afternoon airwaves to College Football and choosing an 11-game main slate beginning 7:05 p.m. ET with nine of the games getting underway in a wild 10 minute window. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (8/27)
Main Slate: Detroit Tigers at LHP Dallas Keuchel — 4.0 implied runs
There are plenty of teams to stack with the obvious ones being San Diego against shaky southpaw Daniel Lynch, Texas against lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who is still getting his bearings after a long layoff and the Mets, who are going against a the enigmatic Kyle Freeland. However, the Stokastic Top Batters Tool sees a tremendous opportunity for Detroit tonight.
This season the DFS world has been conditioned to use pitchers against the Tigers as they have been putting up very little resistance against right-handers. However, the Motor City Kitties have been serviceable against lefties and Dallas Keuchel has already been released by the Diamondbacks and White Sox this season, prior to the Rangers rolling the dice out of desperation. Keuchel has made 12 starts lasting only 50.2 innings with an 8.53 ERA, 2.03 WHIP and 1.8 home-runs-allowed-per-nine-innings rate.
Javier Baez has been dealing with a sore back, though this is a dream matchup for the slugger who boasts a .368 wOBA and a .236 ISO in his last 239 opposite-handed opportunities. Eric Haase should be in the cleanup slot and he too has light-tower power with a .245 ISO against lefties since the start of last year. Though this duo strikes out at an astronomical rate, Keuchel has a paltry 13.4% strikeout rate over his last 900 batters faced. The bonus with Haase is that he has catcher eligibility, which makes this pairing an excellent mini stack.
Late Slate: New York Yankees at RHP Adam Oller — 5.0 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is well aware that the field is going to be flocking to the Yankees, however, there are 21 other teams in the player pool on Saturday, so differentiation should not be an issue.
Adam Oller has tremendous tenacity as he has certainly been on a long and winding path to The Show. After spending three seasons pitching for the Northwestern State Demons, Oller was selected in the 20th round of the 2016 MLB Draft by Pittsburgh. The next seven years saw Oller bouncing around the minor leagues with the Pirates, Giants, Mets and a turn in an independent league, before a stint in the Australian Baseball League. Finally, this season, he broke through with the A’s after Oakland gave him one last shot.
Despite the feel-good story of perseverance, the on-field results have been pretty dismal. In 16 appearances spanning 60.1 innings, the 27-year-old has a 6.41 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP that includes a walk every other inning. The 1.94 home-runs-per-nine-innings rate tends to clear the bases quickly and there is just no way Oller’s 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings can save him. It feels like piling on at this point, but his 6.81 xFIP indicates he has actually been a little lucky so far. Yikes!
Giancarlo Stanton is back from his Achilles injury and the top seven in the New York order is truly terrifying. Aaron Judge leads the league by 14 home runs, while Anthony Rizzo is ninth. It is all but preordained that one or more of this power trio will be sending a ball out of the yard tonight. That still leaves three more all-stars including leadoff man Andrew Benintendi, two time batting champion D.J. LeMahieu (dealing with a sore toe) and Josh Donaldson, who has three extra-base hits and four walks in his last seven games.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Luis Castillo vs. Cleveland Guardians — 2.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,800
On Sunday, Luis Castillo struggled in Oakland against the Athletics, but he has otherwise been stellar since donning a Mariners uniform. In four starts for Seattle, the former Cincinnati stalwart has tallied 25.2 innings with 29 strikeouts. Though the Guardians projected lineup has a low 20.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons, it comes along with a .117 ISO. Game-time temperatures will be dipping below 70 degrees, which further enhances this pitching-friendly venue.
Secondary Target: RHP Yu Darvish at Kansas City Royals — 3.25 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $10,600
Yu Darvish is returning from the paternity list and his arm had a chance to recover with his last start being against the Nationals nine days ago. Kansas City has a top-heavy lineup with Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and M.J. Melendez the three most accomplished hitters. The subsequent falloff is rather precipitous as the rest of the lineup is filled with below replacement level batters. Though Darvish has a career low 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings this season, he is still averaging 99.3 pitches per start and his 18 quality starts rank fourth overall, making him an excellent fallback option on FanDuel.
Wild Card Target: LHP David Peterson vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $7,500
David Peterson has been bouncing up and down from Triple-A this season, but he is fully stretched out and coming off a 100-pitch outing last Saturday in Philadelphia. Carlos Carrasco is still a week away from being cleared to return from his oblique injury, which means we may see Peterson get one more opportunity after Saturday’s start. Colorado is likely to roll out a lineup with at least eight right-handed hitters, though that is factored into Peterson’s reasonable salary. In his last 482 opposite-handed matchups, the soon-to-be 27-year-old southpaw has a respectable 24.9% strikeout rate. Tonight a realistic expectation is 90ish pitches which should see Peterson close out the sixth inning and half a dozen strikeouts on the table.
Additional Opportunities
Brandon Woodruff currently has a 7.5 strikeout prop for his matchup with the Cubs tonight. The Stokastic MLB Player Props Tool has him for 7.1 strikeouts and a 65% chance of failing to reach the eight whiffs needed to surpass the over. In three of his last five starts, Woodruff has allowed at least two home runs. Additionally, in this same span he has more than five strikeouts just twice. If his control continues to be an issue, he could easily burn through his 100 or so pitches without getting the required eight strikeouts.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Alek Manoah vs. Los Angeles Angels (Early)
- RHP Dustin May at Miami Marlins (Afternoon)
- RHP Charlie Morton at St. Louis Cardinals (Main)
- RHP Jose Urquidy vs. Baltimore Orioles (Main)
- RHP Domingo German at Oakland Athletics (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Isaac Paredes at LHP Rich Hill (Early)
- Kyle Schwarber vs. RHP Tyler Beede (Afternoon)
- Pete Alonso vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (Main)
- Wil Myers at LHP Daniel Lynch (Main)
- Jesse Winker vs. RHP Zach Plesac (Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Minnesota has rain in the forecast and there is a decent chance it will impact the Twins and Giants matchup. The only other venue with above average risk is Kauffman Stadium with the Kansas City Royals hosting Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres. Currently the coverage area is low, but it is still worth noting since Darvish is going to be a popular option.
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