Welcome to Inside the Octagon, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 12-fight card in Las Vegas including a main event between Kamara Usman and Gilbert Burns. The main GPP has $150,000 going to first place with a total of $600,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks and analysis for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns.
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MMA DFS: UFC 258 Usman vs. Burns
Belal Muhammad $9,200 vs. Dhiego Lima $7,000
Belal Muhammad
- Age: 32
- Height: 5-foot-9
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 72 ins.
- Record: 17-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: 42%
- Betting Odds: -400
Muhammad is coming into this matchup riding a three-fight winning streak. He beat Tim Means and Takashi Sato, and with a victory over Lima, Muhammad would likely move further up the welterweight rankings. Muhammad has four wins via knockout, one via submission and 12 via decision. He has been under the radar since entering the welterweight division in the UFC. Muhammad should be motivated in this fight, hoping to make a statement with an impressive victory over Lima.
Dhiego Lima
- Age: 32
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 75 ins.
- Record: 17-7-0
- Striking Accuracy: 45%
- Betting Odds: +320
Lima is currently riding a three-fight winning streak with victories over Court McGee and Luke Jumeau. That said, he has not stepped into the Octagon since 2019, and such a lengthy layoff could cause issues going against a skilled fighter like Muhammad. Lima has four wins via knockout, four via submission and seven via decision, and he will be looking to keep his winning streak going. However, that could be a tough road going against Muhammad, who is extremely motivated to keep moving up the rankings in the welterweight division.
My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Muhammad. He will use his grappling skills to wear Lima down while looking to secure another submission win.
UFC DFS Pick: Belal Muhammad via Second-Round Submission.
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Rodolfo Vieira $9,300 vs. Anthony Hernandez $6,900
Rodolfo Vieira
- Age: 31
- Height: 6-foot-0
- Weight: 185 lbs.
- Reach: 73 ins
- Record: 7-0-0
- Striking Accuracy: 46%
- Betting Odds: +300
Vieira is coming into this matchup riding a two-fight winning streak, and both wins inside the Octagon came via submission. Vieira is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion and seven-time World Cup champion. He is an elite grappler and will be a huge threat to Hernandez when this fight hits the canvas. Vieira has one win via knockout and six wins via submission. He will look to get this fight to the canvas early while looking to secure another stoppage win via submission.
Anthony Hernandez
- Age: 27
- Height: 6-foot-0
- Weight: 185 lbs.
- Reach: 75 ins
- Record: 7-2-0
- Striking Accuracy: 49%
- Betting Odds: -375
Hernandez is coming into this matchup off a disappointing first-round knockout loss against Kevin Holland in May 2020. Now, facing an elite grappler and submission artist in Vieira, Hernandez will have an extremely tough job facing him. Hernandez has one win via knockout, five via submission and one via decision. He will look to keep the distance and avoid grappling exchanges with Vieira, but Vieira’s jiu-jitsu will be too much for Hernandez to overcome.
My preferred on DraftKings and FanDuel is Vieira. He should push the pace and force Hernandez into grappling exchanges while looking to lock in another submission victory.
UFC DFS Pick: Rodolfo Vieira via First-Round Submission.
Maycee Barber $7,900 vs. Alexa Grasso $8,300
Maycee Barber
- Age: 22
- Height: 5-foot-4
- Weight: 125 lbs.
- Reach: 65 ins.
- Record: 8-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 59%
- Betting Odds: +100
Barber will be returning to the Octagon for the first time since tearing her left ACL at UFC 246 in January 2020. Up until her last fight, Barber had been undefeated in her UFC career. Fighting Alexa Grasso in her return to the Octagon should prove to be a significant test for Barber. She has five wins via knockout, two via submission and one win via decision. Barber should be well prepared and extremely motivated for this fight. If she beats Grasso, it should put her in prime position to jump up the flyweight rankings.
Alexa Grasso
- Age: 27
- Height: 5-foot-4
- Weight: 125 lbs.
- Reach: 66 ins.
- Record: 12-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: 42%
- Betting Odds: -120
Grasso is coming into this matchup off a unanimous decision win against Ji Yeon Kim back in August 2020. She has solid boxing skills with good technical striking. However, Grasso has struggled to put it all together in her career thus fa, though she has four wins via knockout and eight via decision. Barber’s power striking could overwhelm Grasso in this fight, which would cause huge issues for Grasso’s boxing and striking.
My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Barber. She should be able to test the chin of Grasso early and often.
UFC DFS Pick: Maycee Barber via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Kamaru Usman $9,000 vs. Gilbert Burns $7,900
Kamaru Usman
- Age: 33
- Height: 6-foot-0
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 76 ins.
- Record: 17-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 53%
- Betting Odds: -275
Usman is riding a 16-fight winning streak and is 11-0 In his UFC career. He will be facing his former training partner, Gilbert Burns. Usman was in Burns’ corner at some fights during their years of training together. Usman has seven wins vis knockout, one via submission and nine via decision. He is arguably the best welterweight and probably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. Usman is a bully in the welterweight division, throwing most opponents around the Octagon like ragdolls. Usman will look to keep this fight standing while bringing heavy pressure and keeping Burns fighting on his back foot.
Gilbert Burns
- Age: 34
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 71 ins.
- Record: 19-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: 44%
- Betting Odds: +210
Burns is coming into this matchup riding a six-fight winning streak, his most recent fight being a unanimous decision win over Tyron Woodley back in May of 2020. He is a grappling specialist and has a gas tank that never runs out, and he has improved his striking under kickboxing coach Henri Hooft. Burns has six wins via knockout, eight via submission and wins via decision. He will look to get the fight to the canvas, but it will be tough against Usman’s elite takedown defense.
My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Usman. He should use his phenomenal takedown defense and his forward pressure to bully Burns early and often.
UFC DFS Pick: Kamaru Usman via Unanimous Decision.
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