The UFC is heading to Salt Lack City, live from the Vivint Arena for UFC 278. The main event will future a battle of welterweights Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards in a title bout. Below are some MMA DFS pick and analysis with the help of Stokastic’s UFC expert projections. Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC 278 and find some of the best UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 MMA DFS Picks
Top-End Pick: Tyson Pedro | DraftKings: $9,500, FanDuel: $22
Pedro is a disciplined fighter, seems to be at ease when stepping inside the octagon. He has fast hands and throws tight shots to the body. Pedro’s jab is absolutely his best weapon to damage his opponent. He is still trying to get back up to speed, after coming back from a 3.5-year layoff, due to a horrible ACL tear. I expect this will be his breakout party with a spectacular performance and possible Performance of the Night bonus, landing his check-left hook in Round 1 for the knockout. Stokastic UFC DFS projections agree giving Pedro 88% win odds with an 81% chance for a knockout. The Top Fighters Tool also is high on him, giving Pedro 49.7% chance of being in the top six on this card.
Mid-Priced Pick: Paulo Costa | DraftKings: $8,700, FanDuel: $19
Costa is coming into this matchup off back-to-back losses, he also failed to make weight by 20 lbs. in his last bout. Prior to, Costa was riding a five-fight winning streak, with a 13-0 record. Costa will be under pressure, after the two-fight skid and looking to make quick work of Luke Rockhold to prove he still belongs in the UFC. With 11 of his 13 professional wins coming via knockout, Costa will be looking to add to his knockout total and get back to be considered one of the most powerful fighters in the middleweight division. He has 78% win odds and a 61% chance for a knockout in UFC DFS projections, while the Top Fighters Tool gives him 37.3% chance of being in the top six on this card.
Mid-Priced Pick: Aori Aoriqileng | DraftKings: $8,500, FanDuel: $17
Aoriqileng is coming into this matchup off a first-round knockout over Cameron Else earlier this year. He is an extremely aggressive fighter, always coming forward with heavy pressure, correlating his strikes with his awkward movement. Aoriqileng uses an odd bobbing and weaving style that is difficult for his opponents to read. I expect Aoriqileng to bring heavy pressure early, while using his awkward style to keep Jay Perrin guessing. If Aoriqileng can land his power uppercut early, although Perrin is durable, we could possibly see Perrin’s first loss via knockout. Aoriqileng has a 24.3% chance of being in the top six on the card, while Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections give him 57.2% win odds.
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Value Pick: Leonardo Santos | DraftKings: $7,300, FanDuel: $12
Santos is a risky value play this week but could payoff nicely with a first-round finish. One disadvantage to look at, Jared Gordon will have a 7-inch reach disadvantage, and Santos could use this to his advantage by hurting Gordon early and dragging him to the mat. Santos’ background as an ADCC world champion should trump anything Gordon has to offer on the ground. Santos best opportunity for a finish, will certainly be in Round 1. He has a 27% win odds, according to our MMA DFS projections. With Santos coming in at 21.7% ownership, rostering him comes with bit of leverage as well.
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