NASCAR Fantasy Picks Today: Daytona 500 DraftKings & FanDuel DFS

One of the best weekends of NASCAR racing is finally here — Daytona 500. The field is set for Sunday’s Daytona 500 with Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman on the pole. Checking out some of the NASCAR DFS value plays and finding the best overall NASCAR DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups is the best place to start for Sunday’s Daytona 500 fantasy scene. It’s an exciting time for the NASCAR Fantasy world, as DraftKings has its very first Millionaire Maker tournament available in the DFS lobby. Be sure to check out our guide on How to Win $1 MILLION Playing DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR for advice on how to build contrarian lineups, as well as the best Millionaire Maker NASCAR fantasy picks.

Expert NASCAR Fantasy Picks Today: Daytona 500

How to Build Cash Game Lineups for Daytona 500

The name of the game this Sunday, on both DraftKings and FanDuel, for head-to-head games, double-ups, and 50/50s is identifying drivers with place differential upside who also possess top-15 potential. In what could become a very volatile race, those playing cash or just looking for value in general, rostering only drivers who possess the ability to move forward and garner place differential points is paramount.

Starting lineups with no driver starting further forward than 20th is a solid bet and the further one goes back in the field, that floor of production gets further cemented as they possess greater place differential potential while decreasing the number of spots they can lose. However, don’t go crazy chasing just place differential, even with backmarkers and punt plays. Drivers rostered in cash still need to have access to a top-15 finish to capitalize on finishing position points.

Joey Logano, 20th ($9,800 DraftKings)

Logano finds himself as a “DraftKings-only” selection for cash game plays because of this starting position. He’s basically riding the fence in terms of what DFS players should want from a cash play as he starts square in the middle of the grid. However, for DraftKings, he possesses something that helps overcome his lack of extra place differential compared to a myriad of other drivers in his range — the desire to get out front and lead. In his last six starts at Daytona, his laps led totals go (in reverse order): 37, 26, 36, 6, 40, and 11. Logano’s game plan in superspeedway events is to be aggressive and place himself out front where he gets to dictate the pace.

Buyer beware, Logano does come with some trepidation because his aggressiveness does tend to bite him in the butt. That was on full display Thursday evening as one of his blocks put him in the wall and before last Summer’s race at Daytona, Logano had wrecked out in three straight Daytona races. Logano is not a “must-play” in DraftKings cash, however, he does fit the bill in lineups looking for a bit more upside resulting from laps led points.

Be sure to tune into the Daytona 500 NASCAR DFS Strategy Show on Saturday at 4 p.m., where Chris Pennell and Phill Bennetzen will be giving their favorite NASCAR Fantasy picks and predictions for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

Denny Hamlin, 30th ($10,500 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

Welcome to Chalk City — population, James Dennis Alan Hamlin. For a third-straight Daytona 500, Hamlin finds himself starting in the second half of the field, this time his worst starting position of them all. Truth be told, where Hamlin starts has been of little importance these past two events as he’s driven from the 20s to the front and led 79 and 98 laps in those past two Daytona 500s with finishes of first and fifth.

Hamlin checks off all of the boxes DFS players are looking for whether in cash or tournaments. He has access to tons of place differential, he carries top-five finishing position potential if he doesn’t just outright win it, and his laps led totals have gone from 95-0-22-30-79-98 in his past six Daytona 500 starts. Heck, even if he doesn’t lead a single lap, he could still end up being the highest-scoring driver because of his place differential potential and probability to end his night in fifth or better. Just be prepared to laugh at his ownership as he should be the highest owned driver across all sites, slates and formats.

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Austin Dillon, 36th ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

When DraftKings and FanDuel don’t have the benefit of knowing starting positions pre-qualifying, DFS players get discounts on drivers like Austin Dillon who’s probably $2,000 to $3,000 cheaper than he would have been had the sites had a little foreknowledge. Regardless, this pick isn’t just about a recognizable name, or a former Daytona 500 winner starting so far back. If Dillon has shown one skill throughout his career it’s been his ability to navigate superspeedways. In 2021 alone, his finishes in the four superspeedway events went third, eighth, 17th, and 11th giving him an average finishing position of 10th. If one digs through last year’s numbers even more they’ll see his average running position was 12th, meanwhile, his average running position with 10% of the race remaining was 13.8 — a valuable number to know that when the laps were winding down Dillon was placing himself within striking distance of a top-10 finish.

Noah Gragson, 39th ($5,300 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel)

DFS players may be turned off from clicking on Gragson’s name (Xfinity DFS biases namely), especially after watching him become a non-factor in Thursday’s first Duel. However, understand that his goal was to just get in the Daytona 500 — a feat he failed at last year but was able to accomplish via qualifying on Wednesday night. Thus, his performance on Thursday was just to protect his equipment with no backup — especially for a team based out of Las Vegas.

Nonetheless, Gragson has plenty of superspeedway history under his belt from his time in the Trucks and Xfinity Series, not to mention learning race-winning tactics from his Xfinity Series owner Dale Earnhardt Jr. Furthermore, this Beard Motorsports team exists and has existed for superspeedways. When Brendan Gaughan was driving the 62, he was a pretty solid bet to move forward. While he couldn’t be counted on to grab enough spots to land on the optimal tournament lineup, he was generally a solid cash play. Now Gragson takes on that mantle, starting 39th he can only go forward.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com