NBA Player Props: Fade Spencer Dinwiddie's Passing (April 4)

The NBA playoffs have almost arrived, and NBA player prop bettors looking to exploit tanking teams don’t have much time left. But with so much meaningful basketball to handicap, even the sharpest bettors can let the best NBA player props slip through their fingers. The below Spencer Dinwiddie player prop stands out as especially easy to miss.

Enter Stokastic’s new NBA Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA Bet Pro pulls lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a one-week free trial of the product.

Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro model is all over these three NBA player props for Tuesday.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | April 4

Corey Kispert Prop O/U 17.5 Points

The Washington Wizards may have thrown in the towel, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to go all-in on their reserves to have big performances. Although Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal won’t play tonight, NBA Bet Pro doesn’t recommend targeting Corey Kispert.

Kispert is averaging only 10.8 points per game this year. Although most of his action has come in a supporting role, he has still averaged only 14.3 points per game since the All-Star Break. This number is a generous one for tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks, and NBA Bet Pro has Kispert projected for only 15.7 points, giving this play an expected win rate of 54%.

Best NBA Player Prop: Corey Kispert Under 17.5 Points (-106) at FanDuel

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Daniel Gafford Prop O/U 20.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)

While we don’t want to buy too much of Corey Kispert, buying in on Daniel Gafford could pay dividends. The center is projected to accumulate 24.3 PRA, well above his betting total of 20.5. Gafford should end up logging more than enough minutes to score bettors a solid return.

Let’s back Gafford to have a big night against the potentially shorthanded Milwaukee Bucks. This play has an expected win rate of 55%, better than the implied odds available at BetMGM (51.2%). Readers new to BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance from the book.

Best NBA Player Prop: Daniel Gafford Over 20.5 PRA (-110) at BetMGM

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Spencer Dinwiddie Prop O/U 9.5 Assists

The Brooklyn Nets have trusted Spencer Dinwiddie to lead their wing-heavy offense, but the point guard has responded by averaging only 8.7 assists per game. Although he has beaten this number in plenty of recent contests, including three of his last four, the Nets may struggle against a competitive opponent in the Minnesota Timberwolves.

NBA Bet Pro projects Dinwiddie for only 8.4 assists tonight. That gives the under an expected win rate of 58%, better than the implied odds available at Caesars Sportsbook (56.2%) Readers yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250.

Best NBA Player Prop: Spencer Dinwiddie Under 9.5 Assists (-128) at Caesars

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.