NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

A five-game Saturday slate of NBA DFS action has two games tipping at 7 ET, an island in the middle at 8:30 and a pair of 10 pm games to wind down the late night. The spread of games should create interesting opportunities for swapping into better positions where applicable, and the hefty 228.5 total in the final game of the night between the Bucks and Trail Blazers is an appealing target. The board includes a Heat vs Hornets contest that checks in at 227.5, but the other three games drop below 220-point game totals in Vegas. The NBA DFS lineup building opportunities are significant, the board is loaded with options at seemingly every position and tier of salary and a number of stars and upper-mid-range players are going under-owned. Exploiting the positive leverage on the top-shelf players while getting to a reasonable mix of the foundational values and lesser-owned mid-range players is a strong tournament approach, there are numerous paths to similarly totaled high-upside lineups in early afternoon projections.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With five games on the slate, this article will focus on a variety of the top plays with positive leverage on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Miles Bridges: DraftKings — $7,800 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $7,300 — SF

After starting the year as something of a breakout darling play who cracked a number of ceilings, Miles Bridges has settled in as a 1.05 fantasy points per minute player across all situations this season. Over the team’s most recent 15-game stretch, Bridges has contributed a 1.03 per-minute mark in 35.3 minutes a night, providing steady reliability in the mid-range of both fantasy point totals and salary. Bridges is projected for 35.9 minutes tonight, even with the team largely healthy, save forward Jalen McDaniels, who will be out tonight. Bridges is at a fair price for his potential, even a median performance would not be valueless and there is clear upside in getting to the under-owned forward across the NBA DFS industry tonight. Overall, Bridges has posted a 58.2% true shooting percentage with a 13.9% assist rate and 9.5% rebounding percentage, he can contribute across the board.

On the DraftKings slate, the Hornets forward is projected for a 36.5-point median score and he slots in as a $7,800 option at either forward spot. Bridges lands in the optimal lineup in 15.4% of simulated slates, making him the 19th-most frequently optimal player at any position on the board, but ranking him behind a few players in the 20% and above range at the forward positions. Anthony Davis, Gordon Hayward, and Julius Randle are all more frequently optimal than Bridges, with Davis coming in at a 25.8% clip behind two value players who top the category at power forward. Randle is in the optimal lineup in 20.8% of simulated slates, so there is a bit of a gap before getting to Bridges, but each of the more optimal choices is also more popular, Davis has 25.9% ownership projected, for example. With expanded value on the board, that mark is likely to climb before lock arrives. Bridges, meanwhile, is somewhat unpopular at his 9.3% projected ownership. The forward lands in the optimal lineup at the same rate as $12,100 superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, though the Bucks forward is projected for a 54.4-point median score on the site. Bridges lands in the mix with other top options by boom score probability as well, checking in at a 16.72% rate for his fair salary. The strong mid-range option is under-owned on the site, he has a targetable 6.1 leverage score that can be exploited in a variety of builds given the player’s positional flexibility. With just single-digit ownership forecast, Bridges could get back to his slate-bending ways this evening.

The Hornets forward looks even better on the FanDuel slate. Bridges lands in the optimal lineup in 26.9% of simulated slates for the blue site, the ninth-most frequently optimal player at any position. He is eligible only at the small forward spot on the site, but his lower $7,300 salary against a larger cap makes him more valuable than across town, but the field is leaving an even larger leverage score to target. Bridges is projected for a 10.8 leverage mark, making him one of the top targets for differentiation and upside. He is carrying a 36-point median projection and a 22.02% boom score probability, but the public is getting to the play just 16.1% of the time. Adding shares of Bridges is a strong play on the site tonight, he comes in as the third-best option at small forward by optimal lineup rate and both choices ahead of him are multi-position eligible, making a blend of solid plays viable. Bridges put up a 32.7-point FanDuel outing in 37 minutes in his last appearance, he has upside for more and he is underappreciated by the field as things stand in the afternoon, making the forward a prime target for FanDuel NBA DFS lineups tonight.

Latest NBA DFS Content

Anthony Davis: DraftKings — $10,100 — C | FanDuel — $10,500 — PF/C

In the game with the night’s lowest total, an unappealing 212.5, the Knicks and Lakers will battle in Los Angeles, and star Anthony Davis stands out as a strong option across both sites. With LeBron James unlikely to play again, but technically a game-time decision, and Carmelo Anthony also on the shelf, Davis should see increased potential for fantasy point production on the floor. In 286 minutes without that pair of teammates this season, Davis has produced a 1.47 fantasy points per minute rate, up from the 1.35 he produces across all situations this season. Davis has a 57.3% true shooting percentage and he is multi-category viable with a 13.6% assist percentage and a 13.3% rebounding rate. In the team’s most recent game, Davis popped for a 64.4-point FanDuel score in just 38 minutes, he has a significant fantasy point scoring upside on any slate. The Lakers big man is among the top options across the industry by Awesemo’s probability metrics and he comes at a fair price and inefficient ownership, making him a priority target in all NBA DFS lineup constructions tonight.

On FanDuel, Davis has eligibility at both the power forward and center positions for his $10,500 salary. The flexible roster spots make Davis by far the best pay-up option on the slate. The Lakers star lands in the optimal lineup 37.5% of the time in Awesemo’s simulated FanDuel slates, the leading option at any position on the site tonight. Despite that excellent chance of being the top play at one of his positions, Davis’ popularity is trailing his probability. The big man comes in with a 32.3% ownership projection which leaves him at an extremely appealing 5.2 leverage score. As an under-owned play from the very top of the board, Davis is an easy choice to make, he is projected for a 50.08-point median score on the blue site and he has a strong 25.09% boom score probability. With an optimal rate that stands seven percentage points above Antetokounmpo with crossover positional eligibility, Davis appears to be the top option for star power on the slate. He checks in at a salary $900 lower than his superstar counterpart on the Bucks, outpacing him in boom score probability despite a median projection that comes in lower by two fantasy points. Either star has the ability to win or lose a slate, but Davis is the leader for upside in the slate’s current configuration.

At $10,100 with eligibility only at the center spot, Davis is a somewhat different play on the DraftKings slate, but he still lands in the optimal lineup in 25.8% of Awesemo’s simulated slates for the site. That rate sees Davis land third by optimal lineup appearances among all players on the DraftKings slate tonight, he is an excellent target for additional exposure, although the field is getting to him at an efficient pace. Davis is projected for 25.9% popularity, leaving him with a negligibly negative leverage score. His 30.32% boom score probability and 50-point median projection is more important than the potential leverage on the slate, at $12,100 Antetokounmpo is in the optimal lineup just 15.4% of the time, leaving a gap of 10 percentage points between the two stars who have a $2,000 salary difference on the site. Davis is the clear spend-up choice and the go-to center option on the slate tonight. The second-most frequently optimal center on the board is $6,100 Bobby Portis, who lands in the optimal lineup in 19.9% of simulated slates for an excellent positive leverage mark as well. The players are easily combined in lineups using the utility position, which establishes an excellent base of median scoring, upside, and leverage in two of the frontcourt positions. Adding shares of Davis beyond his projected ownership is a strong approach to this slate when looking for expensive stars.

Richaun Holmes: DraftKings — $5,100 — C | FanDuel — $5,300 — C/PF

Sacramento and Oklahoma City are squaring off in one of the night’s last contests, a game carrying a middling 216.5 total but several interesting options from up and down the board. One such choice is a potentially strong leverage play as an inexpensive mid-range option with an excellent track record of fantasy points per minute performance. Kings center Richaun Holmes is projected for a 24.3-minute night, slightly below his 25.7-minute average. The Kings may be without questionable Marvin Bagley and point guard De’Aaron Fox, and Terence Davis is out once again, so there will be plenty of opportunities for players who will see a significant run for the Kings tonight. Holmes has produced a 1.02 fantasy points per minute mark across all situations this season, down somewhat from the 1.10 rate he posted on more usage last year. The big man is capable around the rim, as evidenced by his 70.5% true shooting percentage and 14.9% rebounding rate, he is a quality producer when he is on the floor and he is projected to be under-owned across the NBA DFS industry again this evening.

On the DraftKings slate, Holmes is a $5,100 center that lands in the optimal lineup in 12.8% of simulated slates. While that ranks him 26th overall on the board by optimal lineup rate he shows strong upside in an 18.47% boom score probability and a 25.9-point median projection for his inexpensive salary. Holmes is the sixth-most frequently optimal player with center eligibility on the site, but two of those options can be rostered at power forward, and we also have a utility spot in play as well. The only option that comes in at a better leverage score from above him by optimal lineup rate in the group of centers is Portis, who is at a 7.6 mark. Holmes checks in with a 3.7 leverage score, he is projected for just 9.1% ownership, making him an appealing target for differentiating lineup combinations. Every other top center option checks in at negative leverage, though they come from a variety of price and popularity tiers overall. For example, the most frequently optimal center on the DraftKings slate is minimum-priced Mamadi Diakite, who is projected for a 25.5-minute night on the other side of this game. Diakite has power forward eligibility and lands in the optimal lineup in 29% of simulated slates, but he comes in with a -4.9 leverage score. Diakite is a strong foundational value that should also be included in most lineup combinations, but Portis is a key to potentially building unique lineups through the frontcourt positions.

Holmes is the fourth-most frequently optimal player with center eligibility on the FanDuel slate, and he adds power forward as an option for his $5,300 salary. Among eligible power forwards, Holmes is the fifth-most frequently optimal player on the board, falling in behind Davis, Antetokoumpo, Portis, and Diakite. The mix of players atop the board is fascinating, as only Diakite is listed with single-position eligibility as a power forward, while Antetokunmpo’s small forward positioning allows a large number of combinations of the premium plays. Diakite’s $3,500 minimum price helps with constructions along these lines as well, as getting to the salaries of both Davis and Antetokunmpo is a tall order without some low salary assistance. With all of this, Holmes is going under-owned for his potential. He has a 26.59-point median projection on the FanDuel slate and his 18.26% boom score probability makes him a quality target when considering his 16.8% popularity projection and 5.1 leverage score. That mark sits second among eligible power forward, trailing only the 5.2 carried by Davis. The big men make for a strong foundation for lineups of all sorts on the FanDuel slate tonight, getting beyond the field on whichever options are positively leveraged at lock seems like an excellent approach, Holmes seems likely to be one of those choices, he should not be forgotten in FanDuel tournament lineups tonight.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

Share this on:

X (Twitter) Facebook

[NBAPAGE]

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.