NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

Thursday night is the final slate before the week-long NBA All-Star break – ignoring the contests for Sunday’s All-Star Game, which will all be covered in full on the site and on our YouTube channel – with five games on deck for NBA DFS contests across the industry. The slate includes a late-night 10:30 island game that starts two hours after the rest of the slate. That game also has the highest total of the night, checking in at a 229.5 on the board in Las Vegas, and both the Rockets and Clippers should offer numerous mid-range value plays with their depleted lineups. The remaining four games feature two totals in the 220s, with the Heat vs Hornets 226.5 total landing second on the slate and the big game between the 76ers and Bucks totals at 223. With obvious stars and value plays in those two contests and the remaining games that are carrying lower totals, there are a fair number of similar projected pivot points in the mid-range to fill out lineups. The slate projects similarly down a few different construction paths, leading to a broad base of builds for a large pool of lineups. Focusing on exceeding the field on the best of the similar mid-range options seems to be the strongest source of differentiation on this slate, potentially tournament-winning scores come from that range every night.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With five games on the slate, this article will focus on the top mid-range leverage plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Patty Mills: DraftKings $5,100 — SG/SF | FanDuel $5,500 — SG/PG

One of the top mid-range options on either site regardless of the differentiated positioning listed above, Patty Mills stands out for his positive leverage at a fair price. Mills will start and see major minutes for Brooklyn once again, with the team playing without stars Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons. Brooklyn’s underwhelming starting lineup should allow plenty of opportunities for Mills to accrue fantasy points, creating a clear path toward a ceiling score for the veteran. Mills has produced just 0.70 fantasy points per minute over the average situation this season, the same mark he put up on slightly higher usage last year. Mills has concerningly dropped to just 0.43 fantasy points per minute in his extended role over the team’s three most recent games, posting a flatline 15.4-point FanDuel performance despite seeing 38 minutes in the team’s most recent game, a trick that is actually difficult to manage just by virtue of simple happenstance when playing that many minutes. Mills is a better player than that and his probability marks bear out the quality of his potential across the industry. The public is well behind the curve on the play on both sites, leaving Mills as one of the best mid-range leverage pivots available at any position.

As the fifth-most frequently optimal player at any position on DraftKings, Mills is a critical part of the slate. He checks in as a shooting guard or small forward on the site, providing eligibility across five positions in a lineup build. The flexible player is inexpensive and he has an excellent 25.9% optimal lineup appearance rate on the slate. That mark lands Mills third behind currently questionable Miami star Jimmy Butler and teammate Seth Curry at the small forward position and behind only Curry at shooting guard by optimal lineup rate. Mills checks in with a 29.5-point median fantasy projection that is valuable at his cheap price. He has a sharp 27.13% boom score probability on the site, making him the sixth-highest ranked option in the category at any position. Mills again lands behind Curry in the category, but with a slightly lower price and a 15.2% ownership projection that stands roughly 12 percentage points below his pricier teammate, Mills is a strong pivot. Mills’ 10.7 leverage score is the top mark on the entire slate, standing more than 1.5 above second-ranked Nicolas Batum in the category. Mills should not be left out because of recent underperformance, let the field make that mistake, getting beyond the projected ownership is easy and advisable on Mills this evening.

The same is true on the blue site, as Mills checks in with noteworthy positional differences from site to site. On FanDuel he comes in as a shooting guard or point guard option for his $5,500 salary, losing the small forward eligibility has a minor impact on the upside available in the play, rendering Mills a less attention-grabbing but still very viable play on this slate. At an 18.1% optimal lineup appearance rate, Mills is the 18th-most frequently optimal player at any position, ranking him alongside 76ers forward Tobias Harris, Seth Curry and Rockets wing Jae’Sean Tate, among others. Many plays from the $5,000-$7,000 price range on FanDuel rank out similarly by probability marks, particularly the optimal lineup rates on this slate. The top players in that price range rank from 42.5% optimal with Kyle Lowry, who will be extremely popular at the top of the board and fellow value play Reggie Jackson, who drops by more than 10 percentage points in second place. After those two interesting options, the board levels off quickly. The next-most optimal plays in the price range are Marcus Morris and Bobby Portis, followed by a list of players who have already been mentioned in this space, all of whom are between 18 and 26% optimal. With a bit of a logjam, it makes sense to look to the lower-owned and positively leveraged options in any price tier, which is where Mills draws the eye. The guard has a 27.67-point median projection and a reasonable 17.76% boom score probability, but the field is rostering him at just an 11.5% clip, leaving a 6.6 leverage score on the player. The next-lowest owned option among the players listed in this price tier comes at 17%. Mills is an uninspiring choice, but on the right night the differentiation of player combinations that he provides can have slate-winning upside.

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Brandon Ingram: DraftKings $7,500 — SG/SF | FanDuel $7,600 — SF

Despite playing in the game with the lowest total on the board, Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram ranks out as a solid option on this slate. Ingram averages 1.10 fantasy points per minute in the average situation this season, but things have changed in New Orleans, and he has checked in at just a 0.94 per-minute mark over the team’s three most recent games and 0.84 per minute since acquiring C.J. McCollum. Ingram’s usage has dipped from 28.9% to 25.2% in that sample, but he seems likely to overcome that obstacle and approach his former rates. On 27.9% usage last season, Ingram averaged 1.12 fantasy points per minute. He should settle in between 1.08 and 1.10 if he sees roughly 26% usage. Ingram is priced in the fair mid-range, and one of the sites offers multi-position eligibility on the potentially high-scoring option. The wing had a rough outing in the team’s most recent game, putting up just 25.8 FanDuel points in 34 minutes of action. Ingram is a more reliable player than that on most nights, and his price is down across the industry, creating a nice opportunity at fairly low ownership.

On the FanDuel slate, Ingram checks in at only the small forward position, a critical detail in evaluating options on the site. Ingram has a 19.9% optimal lineup appearance rate, ranking him 13th among all players and sixth among eligible small forwards. Every player ranked above him at the position has multi-position eligibility, however, which helps to inflate the relative value of Ingram’s probability marks at his sole position. The small forward is going to land in that spot in optimal constructions with the options above him, including Butler, Kyle Kuzma, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Morris and others who fall around him positionally. The public’s ownership projection does not currently reflect that positional value, Ingram is getting left on the shelf too often, with the crowd coming in at just an 18.7% ownership projection. Ingram has a targetable 1.2 leverage score at raw ownership that is simply too low for a five-game slate. His 36.06-point median projection and 18.2% boom score probability both compare favorably with all but the top stars on the slate, and Ingram is under-owned. He should be a mid-range priority in a variety of lineup combinations with players carrying positional flexibility.

On the DraftKings slate Ingram is one of those flexible options. He picks up shooting guard eligibility on the site, which makes him a more dynamic option in roster constructions. Ingram has a 21% optimal lineup appearance rate, ranking 11th overall on the site. With the top option on the slate checking in at a 30.1% optimal rate, there is not a major value gap between Ingram and the highest probability plays. Several of the more highly ranked options in the category come from the value tiers, with Jackson, Curry and Ivica Zubac occupying spaces on the list. Ingram ranks fifth among eligible shooting guards and small forwards by optimal lineup rate. He has a 37.8-point median projection that sits ahead of everyone on that list other than Butler, and his 19.31% boom score probability joins his optimal rate in outpacing the field’s projected ownership. Ingram will only be included by the field in 17.5% of lineups as of the afternoon projections update, leaving him far short of where he “should” be rostered on this slate. The flexible option has an excellent 3.5 leverage score that can be targeted for repeated usage in a variety of lineup combinations at both of his eligible positions tonight. Ingram is a top option on the DraftKings slate, but the field is failing to wield him as one.

Nicolas Batum: DraftKings $4,200 — PF/C | FanDuel $5,400 — SF/PF

Coming off a game in which he was featured in this space as a strong value play with positive leverage, Clippers veteran Nicolas Batum looks to play the exact same role on tonight’s small slate. In the last outing, Batum posted a 36.9-point FanDuel score in just 25 minutes of action, largely delivering from similarly low price points across the industry. While FanDuel has been more reactive with pricing recently, including on this play, Batum is still a playable option on the blue site, and he is one of the top inexpensive leverage points on the DraftKings slate. Batum has headline-worthy positional flexibility in very different roles across both sites as well, making him a different play depending on where one is building lineups. Ultimately, he averages 0.85 fantasy points per minute in the average situation this season who has been able to elevate his game to deliver 0.95 per minute in 24.7 minutes a night in his increased role in the team’s three most recent games. Batum is not owned nearly frequently enough by the public, doubling the field’s exposure on the late-night option is an easy play to make.

On the FanDuel slate Batum checks in with positional eligibility at either forward spot, but his salary has spiked to $5,400. He is projected for a 27.2-minute night, which should be more than enough time to deliver better than his median 26.58-point FanDuel projection. The 15.7% boom score probability tempers expectations to a degree, but it is well above zero and ranks above many options that are more popular than Batum’s 6.1% raw ownership projection. That rate leaves him at an excellent 7.7 leverage score on the FanDuel slate, only Devonte’ Graham ranks ahead of Batum in the category. Graham lands in the optimal lineup in 18.8% of simulated slates and will be owned by just 10.4% of the field, making him another stellar option at just a $4,300 price and positional eligibility at both guard spots. Batum’s 13.8% optimal rate falls well short of Graham’s mark, and Graham ranks higher in both probability categories for less salary, but he is more highly owned. Both players make for sharp value plays on the slate, they can both be utilized as under-owned building blocks that work with some of the slate’s top options for probability or raw fantasy point scoring in low-owned combinations.

Batum has a 23.6% optimal lineup appearance rate at his oddly low salary on DraftKings. He also has positional eligibility at both power forward and center on the site, which makes him a fascinating pivot point around which a number of unique approaches to the slate can be taken. Batum has a 26.5-point median projection for the low salary, leaving him at an outstanding 32.14% boom score probability that stands as the slate’s second-highest. Batum trails only Zubac in that category, who is projected for 26.6 minutes and a 30.1-point median night, resulting in a 38.78% boom score probability, but he will be owned by 26% of the field compared to just 14.3% for Batum. The less-expensive Batum also has multi-position eligibility, making him the stronger option when comparing the teammates. Only Mills stands above his 9.3 leverage score. Batum can be rostered aggressively, though it pays to keep an eye on the overall median projection of a lineup if one combines multiple players from the value tier in a build.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.