NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

The slate of NBA DFS action on Friday night is loaded for potential fantasy point production. The slate has a 235.5-point peak, with that total coming in a fast-paced contest between the Spurs and Rockets which should offer a number of plays from a wide range of salary and positional tiers. There are two other games carrying totals north of 230-points on the board in Vegas tonight as well; the Nets and Jazz are totaled at 232.5 while the Bulls vs Pacers game lands at 230.5. With those games providing excellent opportunities for scoring upside they make for prime targets on this slate, but there is a wide mid-range at play on a slate that could take on several different shapes by lock, depending on who is in and who sits. For example, as this introduction was underway, Nets superstar James Harden was ruled out for tonight, changing one of the top pay-up options into an overabundance of new value plays and completely reshaping the slate. Shortly after, the Clippers and Trail Blazers agreed to a five-player trade that removes Robert Covington and Norman Powell from tonight’s slate, changing things once again. The optimal rate and leverage columns will be an important one to monitor this evening, getting to a mix of highly projected players at any price and weaving in a few lower-owned positively leveraged choices is the recommended approach for FanDuel and DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With nine games on the slate, this article will focus on a variety of the top plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Dejounte Murray: DraftKings — $10,500 — PG | FanDuel — $10,500 — PG/SG

After missing two of the team’s three most recent games, star point guard Dejounte Murray did not appear on today’s injury report, meaning we should expect him to play tonight. This puts the frequently featured guard in play as one of the top options on the board once again, Murray has easily appeared in this space more often than any other player this season. The Spurs star has made a major leap this year, climbing from 1.11 fantasy points per minute on 23.1% usage to a gargantuan 1.40 mark on 26.3% usage. Murray has a 38.1% assist percentage that ranks behind only Luka Doncic, Trae Young and Nikola Jokic among players who will be active for tonight’s slate, as well as the recently scratched Harden. Murray has the lowest true shooting percentage in that group at just 51.1%, but he outpaces both Young and Harden in fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. Murray is coming up as one of the most frequently optimal players at any position across both sites. He is an excellent target tonight even as his ownership grows to match his probability metrics and the lack of gravity from Harden’s star pulling lineups shares in other directions.

On DraftKings, Murray is projected for a 53-point median fantasy points night and he lands in the optimal lineup in 16.4% of simulated slates, a mark that will likely climb somewhat in the absence of Harden at the guard spot. Murray slots in at only the point guard position for $10,500, making the fourth-ranked optimal lineup appearance rate a major target in spite of an ownership projection that will assuredly climb as updates roll in throughout the afternoon. Murray’s 32.6% boom score probability lands second overall on the slate and first among non-centers. Murray is behind only currently questionable big man Hassan Whiteside, who is an outstanding option if he plays, by boom score probability. At the guard spot, he is 2 percentage points ahead of backup Brandon Goodwin, who is projected for a fair number of minutes at a cheap price in the Cleveland backcourt. Murray is the go-to play, given the excellent median projection and favorable positional comparisons. Luka Doncic sits at a 20.36% boom score probability, the 19th highest among point guards on the DraftKings slate, and he lands in the optimal lineup in just 9.8% of simulated slates for a much higher salary at $11,900. Murray is easily the better choice between the two, and every point guard in between them on the board is priced at $6,600 or lower. When not going to Murray at the top of the DraftKings board, it makes sense to explore value and mid-range point guard options, but Murray is the obvious top choice at the position, and he is one of the best bets on the site as a whole.

Murray is the second-most frequently optimal player at any position on the blue site, landing 6 percentage points behind Cavaliers forward Cedi Osman at 27.1%. Murray slots in at either guard position for $10,500 on the FanDuel slate, adding to his overall upside and flexibility in lineup constructions. The Spurs star is projected for a 51.62-point night on FanDuel, and he has an excellent 29.68% boom score probability. That rate of success falls in sixth overall on the slate, Murray lands behind superstar center Nikola Jokic, who ranks third with a 35.47% boom score probability, but lands in the optimal lineup in just 17.7% of simulated slates. The other plays atop the boom score column are either from the mid-range or value tier, making Murray and Jokic a strong pay-up pairing by their probability of success. Murray’s popularity will climb on the FanDuel slate as lock approaches and news changes as well. He is likely to go off at close to efficient ownership, but he will be a strong play regardless of the situation with his public popularity, given the rates at which he hits a ceiling score and lands in the top optimal lineup.

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Kenrich Williams: DraftKings — $3,900 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $3,700 — SF

One of the more prominent value plays on the board in the early part of the afternoon may get diluted by the appearance of a number of new options in later updates, but the minutes projection and potential production from Thunder forward Kenrich Williams should remain intact, which would make him an interesting target if ownership peels back. As things currently stand, Williams is a good option who is efficiently owned from a low salary tier on both sites, but with less popularity, he would be a strong leverage consideration. Williams has produced 0.81 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, but he has been at just .61 over the team’s three most recent games, while seeing an uptick to a 26.7-minute average, climbing from the 21.3 minutes he typically sees. Williams posted a 24.3-point FanDuel outing in 29 minutes the last time the team took the floor, not quite enough for even his low salaries on this slate, but there is potentially a bit more upside to hope for on any given slate. Williams has a 52.3% true shooting percentage and a 14.7% assist rate with an 8.6% rebounding percentage this season. He is not a standout player in most situations, but for the low cost he fits in as an optimal building block in certain configurations of this slate.

On FanDuel, Williams is in the optimal lineup in 16.3% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, but the public is projected for appropriate ownership on the $3,700 small forward option. Williams has a 22.79-point median projection that does not inspire much confidence when compared to the numbers around him when sorted by probability metrics, but his low cost justifies the popularity. Williams has a 29.27% boom score probability that slots in just behind Murray on the slate. As a good value play with ownership that should likely drop below his optimal lineup rate in future updates to this slate, Williams can be monitored and likely should be a good leverage target that the public may forget about as frenzy builds for value chalk from other sources.

On DraftKings, Williams slots in at either forward position for $3,900. The increased salary against a lower relative cap does nothing to diminish the quality of the play, Williams lands in the optimal lineup in 16.1% of simulated DraftKings slates, the seventh-highest player at any position and the second highest among small forwards. He has a 23.2-point median projection on the slate and the 26.38% boom score probability is calling out for ownership, particularly when cast against just 15.5% popularity. Williams is a 0.6 leverage play that should improve to a larger positive number as the slate shifts and values from other sources gain popularity. Getting to shares of Williams in a mix-and-match approach is potentially valuable on this slate. He should at worst make for a viable pivot from other inexpensive and volatile value plays.

Anfernee Simons: DraftKings — $6,600 — PG | FanDuel — $6,600 — PG/SG

With the Trail Blazers reshaping part of their roster in the mid-afternoon, there should be even more for already productive guard Anfernee Simons to do on the floor tonight. Simons plays 28.4 minutes per game and was already projected for a 33.9-minute night, which was casting him as a reasonably optimal mid-range consideration prior to the news of the trade taking pieces out of the Portland rotation. Simons stands to gain ground in his minutes projection, which would inflate all of his other marks across the board. He slots in as a good mix-and-match piece who may end up under-owned for his potential upside. Simons has produced 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season but just 0.76 in his expanded 34.3 minutes per night over the team’s three most recent games. With the expanded potential, Simons makes for an interesting target in the late game.

Simons is in the optimal lineup in 13.5% of simulated DraftKings slates for his $6,600 salary at the point guard position. That rate lands him 10th overall on the site, but it does put him behind a few other options at his position, including Murray and Brandon Goodwin. Simons can be rotated through secondary guard slots and the utility role in conjunction with more frequently optimal point guards. He has a solid 23.77% boom score probability and a 34-point median projection on the slate, prior to adjustments for the trade news. He should only increase in quality from that point. If his projection and playing time expectations improve, Simons is potentially under-owned at just 16.6% although technically he is currently at a -3.1 leverage score. That mark would still be playable, but the hope would be that more room opens up around the play as lock approaches.

On the blue site, Simons slots in at either guard position for the same price. He has a 31.67-point median projection on the blue site tonight and he lands in the optimal lineup in 11.5% of simulated slates. That rate drops him to 27th overall on the slate, but he should improve in value and probability as the updates come through later in the afternoon. Simons is currently carrying a sturdy 16.22% boom score probability on the site, and he is low owned at just 13.6%, creating a situation where an improvement in probability will make him a sneaky consideration. With two rotation pieces coming out, Simons will have plenty of opportunities to create fantasy points on the court tonight. He is a good option from the mid-range regardless of the direction his current -2.1 leverage score travels, but he will be very appealing if he reaches positive ground in that category. The flexibility that Simons can provide around other guards is valuable in lineup constructions on the FanDuel NBA DFS slate tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.