Trade deadline Thursday has seen some major shakeups across the league, with potentially more to come in the final hour as this article is written. The biggest move of the day by far at this point is James Harden moving from Brooklyn to Philadelphia in exchange for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond, as well as a few picks. The deal changes both the shape of the Eastern Conference and the mechanics of Brooklyn’s rotation for tonight’s NBA DFS slate. With seven games on the docket tonight, there are numerous opportunities to hunt for fantasy point-scoring upside and value. The board includes an excellent-looking Bucks vs Suns contest with a 233.5 total at the top, but the first game of the night between the Grizzlies and Pistons lands at 224.5 as the only other matchup with a total above 220. With an unpredictable and massive amount of value in various spots around the league, it should be yet another night on which it is easy to roster multiple stars or a variety of premium player combinations on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this article will focus on a variety of the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Devin Booker: DraftKings $8,900 — PG/SG | FanDuel $8,800 — SG
As one of the secure pieces to discuss prior to the deadline, Devin Booker joins teammate Chris Paul and Dallas superstar Luka Doncic at the top of the board by optimal lineup rate on both sites. Booker is projected for 36.6 minutes in the night’s most heavily totaled game, a barnburner between the Bucks and Suns that will provide fantasy points in a number of directions. The productive guard is an upper mid-range option on the slate, he comes in with a 1.18 fantasy points per minute rate across all situations this season, and he has been a 1.2 per-minute player over the team’s three most recent games. Booker is an excellent scorer who has a 55.8% true shooting percentage and he carries a solid 19.9% assist rate. In 37 minutes in the team’s most recent outing, the versatile guard put up a 47.3-point performance on FanDuel. Booker comes with mid-level popularity on the slate and he is not inexpensive, but the ownership grades out efficiently on both sites, making the Suns guard a reasonable target for NBA DFS lineups across the industry.
On the DraftKings slate, as things currently stand, Booker is a top performer who has eligibility at both guard positions for $8,900. He ranks second overall on the slate with a 22.4% optimal lineup appearance rate and he is only slightly on the negative side of the leverage spectrum. Booker has a very strong 44.5-point median projection and he checks in with a solid 23.76% boom score probability. That mark ranks the Phoenix scorer as the ninth-best option by his probability of hitting a ceiling score, and notably, no other player in the top-10 costs more than the $6,100 at which Jerami Grant appears, while landing one spot ahead of Booker with a 24.15% boom score mark. All of the options at the very top of the boom score probability board are priced in the $3,000 tier, Booker is the slate’s top mid-range pay-up option on DraftKings. The guard lands in the public’s lineups at a projected 24.7% rate, leaving him at a -2.3 leverage score, but his overall upside, raw points projection, and positional flexibility are key features that are more valuable than his negative leverage is damaging. Booker looks like a logical priority play on the DraftKings NBA DFS slate tonight.
On the FanDuel board, Booker checks in at a 25.7% optimal lineup appearance rate that ranks seventh overall on the slate. He loses point guard eligibility on the blue site but costs just $8,800 at shooting guard, against a higher salary cap. Booker is a strong play on this site, he has an excellent 42.49-point median projection and a 22.63% boom score probability that make him a good target for ownership at or around the field’s projected 28.9% rate. Booker ranks behind fellow guard options including Doncic, Jalen Brunson – Brunson is still on the Mavericks after the deadline so he should be expected to play tonight, with Kristaps Porzingis heading out of the lineup on his way to the Wizards in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie – as well as Kyrie Irving and Gary Trent Jr. With a few other guards available at a variety of prices and strong probability marks, Booker can be rostered in a variety of combinations, most of those other options include multi-position eligibility. With Dinwiddie coming off the board, the optimal rates for these other options will likely grow in later updates, making Booker all that much more appealing. The Suns’ guard is a great piece on FanDuel, he has a -3.2 leverage score but he can be safely rostered at around the public’s rate as a strong upside mix-and-match option.
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Alperen Sengun: DraftKings $4,800 — PF/C | FanDuel $5,100 — C/PF
With the Rockets clearing some room in the frontcourt by dealing Daniel Theis to the Celtics, big man Alperen Sengun is in line for more secure minutes going forward. Sengun has averaged 18.6 minutes a night over the course of the entire season, and he has seen 27.3 per game in the team’s three most recent contests. Over that stretch of games, Sengun has put up a 1.07 fantasy points per minute rate, down from the 1.14 he has averaged across all situations, but still very sturdy for the low price and larger share of playing time. The big man has a 56.1% true shooting percentage with an excellent 20.9% assist rate and 12.3% rebounding share, he is an underappreciated multi-category contributor who fits in at multiple positions on both sites. Sengun is a strong value play on a board that has a number of them, but he gains appeal in a lack of appropriate ownership on both sites.
On DraftKings in particular, Sengun looks under-owned. The $4,800 option at either the power forward or center position is coming in with one of the slate’s better leverage scores at 4.4. The field is not getting to the productive big man frequently enough, despite the flexible positioning and fair price. Sengun has a 12.7% ownership projection but he is carrying a 28.2-point median DraftKings scoring projection and a targetable 31.56% boom score probability. By boom score, Sengun comes in behind a number of options at the discount center position, including Thomas Bryant and Kelly Olynyk, who check in at 64.78% and 45.83% boom score rates, respectively. With everything at the top of the DraftKings board coming from the extreme value tier, it is easy enough to spend a few more dollars to differentiate with an also productive option like Sengun on this slate. He lands in the optimal lineup in 17.1% of simulated slates, making him an excellent option at the low raw ownership total and positive leverage marks. The optimal lineup rate ranks Sengun 12th overall on the slate and he has a 10th-ranked leverage score, this is a quality option to help make a lineup different.
On FanDuel, Sengun is a $5,100 option at either power forward or center. The big man has a 27.35% boom score probability on the blue site, ranking him 12th overall on the slate. Sengun falls in behind similar options from the Wizards, Pistons, and Mavericks on the FanDuel slate, where Thomas Bryant is the top option at his 47.04% boom score rate for $4,000 at the same positioning as we find Sengun. By optimal lineup appearance rate, Sengun ranks seventh among power forward and center options on the FanDuel slate. Players ahead of him include Jerami Grant, Deni Avdija, superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo (the amazing Bucks star has a 2.06 fantasy points per minute rate over the team’s three most recent games), and a handful of other players. Overall, Sengun is more of a mix-and-match piece on the FanDuel slate, where he is optimal in 15.8% of simulated slates and checks in with an efficient 15.5% ownership. Forwards Kyle Kuzma and Scottie Barnes rank immediately ahead of Sengun, landing in optimal lineups in 25 and 23.6% of simulated slates. The lower raw ownership total carried by the Rockets big man is appealing as a mix-in and can help to bolster the argument for getting to additional shares beyond the rate at which the public is going to the play.
Thomas Bryant: DraftKings $3,300 — C | FanDuel $4,000 — C/PF
The Wizards were one of Thursday’s more active teams at the deadline, making deals to send out Spencer Dinwiddie, Montrezl Harrell, and Davis Bertans, and new acquisitions are not going to be with the team this evening. This creates a major opportunity for several Wizards, all of whom land at or near the top of the board on both sites tonight. In addition to center Thomas Bryant, forwards Kyle Kuzma and Deni Avdija are also pulling in excellent probability metrics and are worthy of consideration on the slate. Value guard Raul Neto and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope also land in the mix atop the board with their teammates. The four most frequently optimal players, and five of the top six, are from the Wizards tonight. From among this group, Bryant looks like one of the most appealing options across the industry, he is at a very low price that helps with lineup constructions and his positional flexibility on FanDuel keeps him in the conversation despite the site’s single-center limitation. Bryant has put up a 0.82 fantasy points per minute rate on 19.3% usage in his 11 games played so far this year, averaging just 16.1 minutes a night. Tonight, the big man is projected for a 27.4-minute outing, which would yield potentially strong production from a player who was a 0.97 per-minute option on just 16.3% usage last season. With added playing time and opportunities to produce fantasy points, Bryant is a leading option for NBA DFS lineups on both sites tonight.
On the FanDuel slate, Bryant has eligibility at power forward and center, which helps keep him in the optimal lineup in 26.7% of simulated slates. That mark sits seventh from the top on FanDuel, landing behind Jerami Grant, Kyrie Irving, Avdija, and Antetokounmpo by only a handful of percentage points. Only Dallas star Luka Doncic is well ahead of the field at his 43.6% optimal lineup appearance rate on the FanDuel slate. Bryant is pulling appropriate ownership, he is a -5.9 leverage score play at his projected 32.6% popularity, but for $4,000 his potential production cannot be ignored in this spot. The 27.43-point median projection is worth rostering for the price on its own, while Bryant is carrying a slate-leading 47.04% boom score probability. There is a significant upside in booking value at the power forward and center spots on both sites tonight. On FanDuel, Bryant joins Olynyk and Sengun in a mix of frequently optimal high-upside plays from the lower salary ranges, helping book upside while also paying for premium starts at other positions.
The center comes in for a far too low $3,300 salary on the DraftKings board, rocketing him to the very top of the optimal lineup appearance rate category. Bryant’s 33.4% rate in that category leads all players, landing in the top spot above seemingly the entire Wizards roster by optimal rate. The group of top Wizards options should all be rostered heavily across 150 lineups on DraftKings, but they are all negatively leveraged players who will require differentiation in other positions. Getting to more than two or three options in a single lineup could be a risky proposition as well, but the salaries would justify the construction from a purely optimal projection perspective. Bryant is a leading option despite losing power forward eligibility on the site. He fits in at the center or utility positions for a very cheap price and he has a 64.78% boom score probability that sits 17 percentage points above the field. Bryant is the clear top value play on the board and it is not particularly close, he should be rostered enthusiastically in a large share of lineups, despite the -10.1 leverage score that is created with 44.1% of the public getting to him. The opportunities created up and down a lineup by booking the bargain-bin salary more than pay for any concerns about heavy public ownership.
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