On the calendar for Wednesday night is a 10-game slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Nov. 1.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
With Zach LaVine competing in last night’s win over the Nets, the shooting guard presumably will be rested Wednesday, as the Bulls have been extremely cautious with him this season. LaVine has already missed three of the Bulls’ first eight games for rest purposes, two of which were one leg of a back-to-back set for Chicago. With the 27-year-old likely inactive tonight, Stokastic is projecting DeMar DeRozan to be one of the most popular high options for this 10-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The forward’s usage increased to a team-high 32.7% with LaVine off the floor this season. DeRozan has massively cooled off after a hot start though, scoring less than 40 DraftKings points in six consecutive starts, including a contest that LaVine was unavailable for. With so many appealing expensive players to consider tonight, passing on a chalky DeRozan is a smart decision, especially on FanDuel, where he is projected to be the most-owned player on the slate. For both sites, DeRozan is rating negatively as a leverage play in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
A stud that Stokastic is projecting for modest ownership that needs to be on your radar is Paul George. Kawhi Leonard (knee) will remain unavailable and George has supplied over 60 DraftKings points in two of the four starts he has made without Leonard this season. Take the forward off the court and George’s usage has risen 2.8 percentage points to 32.9%, providing 1.3 DraftKings PPM. In a great spot against a Rockets team that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and 11th in pace, George brings a ceiling well over 50 fantasy points and could be a key to winning GPPs tonight.
Another appealing high-end contrarian target is Jaylen Brown. Priced at only $8,300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, the wing is far too cheap for his huge role and upside. Brown ranks inside the top 15 in usage rate this season (31.4%) and has eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in four of six starts, including a season-best 50 DraftKings point effort against the Cavs, who he will be facing again tonight. This contest presents the tightest spread on the slate (BOS -2) and he is forecasted for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. Combine this low ownership with his potential ceiling and Brown is rating as a top-15 option on the slate in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Value Tier
De’Aaron Fox (knee) will be out tonight, making Davion Mitchell the Kings’ starting point guard and the chalk value play of the night. Fading the cheap chalk is usually the right move, but holding strong with the guard and picking other spots in your lineup to be contrarian is the best strategy with Mitchell criminally underpriced for the role he will take on tonight. Fox exited after only seeing nine minutes Monday versus the Hornets. After his departure, Mitchell started the second half in his place and finished with 34 DraftKings points. Furthermore, after Tyrese Haliburton was traded to the Pacers last season, Fox missed the final 11 games of the season. As his replacement starter in all of those contests, Mitchell produced 37.9 DraftKings points in 39.7 minutes per game with a 24% usage rate. Overall, Mitchell has contributed 0.9 DraftKings PPM in the 906 minutes he has played without Fox and Haliburton since the start of last season. Mitchell’s price tags on both DraftKings and FanDuel went over $7,000 during his run with Fox sidelined last season, and he is a steal at less than $5,000 on both sites tonight, regardless of his subpar matchup versus the Heat. Specifically, at only $4,200 on DraftKings, Mitchell owns the highest optimal lineup percentage score on the slate by a wide margin in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
The Hawks and Knicks present the highest total on the slate (233 points) and Isaiah Hartenstein is standing out as a great cheap way to gain exposure to a high-scoring affair that isn’t forecast to be overly popular on either site in Stokastics’s projections. As New York’s backup center this season, Hartenstein has collected one DraftKings PPM and has recorded at least 24 DraftKings points in four of his first six games. Atlanta ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and Hartenstein should have no issues exceeding five-times value in this terrific spot, with a ceiling above 30 fantasy points if starting center Mitchell Robinson gets into foul trouble, which has been a common trend this season. In Stokastic’s projections, Hartenstein is rating as a top-10 value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Justise Winslow is also standing out as an appealing value play tonight, with Stokastic anticipating him for low ownership on both sites. Damian Lillard (calf) will miss his second game in a row and while he didn’t start, Winslow was great with Lillard absent this past Friday night, tallying 32 DraftKings points in 24 minutes off the bench versus the Rockets. Winslow notably closed the game with the starters and should log right around 25 minutes again tonight in a prime spot against a Memphis club that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and ninth in pace. With a 19.7% usage rate, Winslow is generating one DraftKings PPM with Lillard off the court over the last two seasons. Even with Lillard missing, this tilt’s total is the third-highest on the slate at 226 points. Also, Josh Hart (head) is questionable and his absence would likely mean 30+ minutes for Winslow, starter or not. Nonetheless, the veteran should thrive tonight with just Lillard absent and is a sneaky way to gain a share of this high total.
Situations to Monitor
Per usual, the Lakers are a team that we must keep a close eye on. Anthony Davis appeared to tweak his back in the final moments of Sunday’s win over the Nuggets and is now listed as questionable for tonight. With this game the last of the night to tip off, we likely won’t have word on Davis until well after roster lock, which should naturally result in low ownership for all the key Lakers players. If he suits up, he will be a superb GPP target against his former team, the Pelicans, especially at only $9,100 on DraftKings. After a quiet start, he has tallied three straight double-doubles for 54.5 DraftKings PPG. Plus, the big man has topped 50 DraftKings points in four-of-six matchups with New Orleans since being traded to Los Angeles. If Davis sits, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook would both see large boosts to their fantasy stocks and be elite GPP investments. With Davis off the court this season, James’ usage has risen 2.5 percentage points to a team-high 34.4%, while Westbrook hasn’t been far behind at 30.4%, which is a huge 6.1 percentage point leap from his season average.
