NHL DFS Picks Today: Sidney Crosby and Penguins Stack

With just a two-game NHL slate, considering the DFS format becomes highly relevant, as there will be some extremely high usages from chalky options on today’s slate. As always, subscribers should check Stokastic’s Discord, especially at warmups, for line changes and injuries.

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Best NHL DFS Picks Today | November 2

Goaltenders

Ilya Samsonov (Flyers vs. Maple Leafs): $8,500 DraftKings | $7,900 FanDuel

Samsonov projects to be around 50% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which is not at all surprising. He has played very well this season, with a +5.2 goals saved above expected rating and a .920 save percentage in six appearances. He gets a very soft matchup against a Flyers team that played last night in New York, which makes him by far the safest bet to avoid a blowup performance out of tonight’s slate. He is also the most likely to record a win by a significant margin.

Flyers goaltender Felix Sandstrom projects to be by far the least used goalie on tonight’s slate. There could be some merit in building a team without the Leafs big names, backing Sandstrom and looking for the kind of lineup to get in the 99.99th percentile.

Toronto leads the league in offensive zone time this season at five-on-five but has not been able to manage a ton of quality with its chances to this point. That leaves a path for Sandstrom to manage some sort of stunning 40-save win tonight, although it’s not exactly an angle to count on.

Casey DeSmith (Penguins vs. Sabres) $7,800 DraftKings | $ 8,200 FanDuel

The Penguins are still generating a ton of high-quality chances over this losing streak and should make life hard on Eric Comrie and the Sabres, which will play into the rest of the build here. Buffalo’s actual goals against per game are the eighth most in the league, but its underlying numbers are more middling, with 2.78 expected goals allowed per 60.

Offensively, Buffalo has greatly outscored its expected rates offensively to this point and could be somewhat less of an offensive juggernaut than the second-most goals per game would suggest.

Pittsburgh could be in a quietly strong spot to snap the losing streak tonight, which is an angle to play for the rest of the build, but the best play lies with Samsonov and looking for the game in Buffalo to be higher scoring.

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Forwards

Sidney Crosby – Jake Guentzel – Jeff Petry Stack (Penguins vs. Sabres): $18,700 DraftKings | $23,100 FanDuel

Pittsburgh has generated the league’s second-most expected goals per 60 this season (4.17), and a huge part of that has been the top unit and top power play, which has carried the team to 3.70 actual goals per game. Buffalo has been better defensively than its actual goals suggest, and the Penguins should score three or more tonight.

Guentzel has returned from injury in strong form, with nine shots on goal and 2 points in two games on Crosby’s wing, and the duo will likely pair up to do some damage in this favorable spot. Adding Petry to the mix as a defender makes a ton of sense, under the condition that Kris Letang remains out for this game. If Letang sits, Petry will again run the Penguins top power play, which therefore makes this an extremely dangerous stack with Crosby and Guentzel. Be sure to check on Letang’s status closer to puck drop.

Pontus Holmberg/Calle Jarnkrok Stack (Flyers vs. Maple Leafs): FanDuel $7,200

With Crosby, Guentzel, Samsonov and Petry, the squad is starting to look pretty expensive, and this bargain duo is a strong way to get it under the salary limitations. Holmberg is not even listed on DraftKings and will be an extremely under-the-radar play in this spot, but he has the potential to do damage skating on Toronto’s third line in a stellar matchup.

Holmberg is a very talented playmaker and has been called up from the AHL as Toronto looks to bolster its scuffling even-strength production. There is a realistic chance Holmberg and Jarnkrok pair up to do exactly that in this game. Holmberg’s underachieving numbers with the Toronto Marlies in the AHL will really keep this play under the radar, but he has completed the most slot passes on the team this season. If Jarnkrok ends up on the end of some strong feeds, this will be a very rewarding stack.

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