High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid Worth Spending Up For

Monday features a large 10-game slate flooded with injury news. It will be extremely important to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, starting with 76ers big man Joel Embiid.

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NBA DFS Boom: Joel Embiid: $10,800 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel

42.9% DraftKings Boom/33.2% FanDuel Boom

For starters, Joel Embiid is questionable to play tonight, so this is one of the key players to monitor on the Starting Lineups page. Embiid has missed four straight games with a foot injury, but if he plays, he will go right back to one of the best plays on the slate as the 76ers are still without James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Embiid has the third-highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the sixth-highest on FanDuel. He is the best pay-up option on the slate if he is playing as the Hawks have allowed 53.1 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 26th in the league.

In six games without Harden this season, Embiid is averaging a huge double-double with 37.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. During that time, he has a ridiculous 41.9% usage rate while averaging 65.7 DraftKings points per game. Not only do the Hawks struggle defending the paint, but they also rank 22nd in rebounding percentage this season. With Clint Capela questionable, this could be an even better spot for Embiid. This will be the third time that Embiid has faced the Hawks this season. In his previous two games he is averaging 34 points and 11.5 rebounds per game while shooting 53.5% from the field. Make sure he plays, but Embiid is the best stud to pay up for on this slate.

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NBA DFS Boom: Zion Williamson: $7,900 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel

51.1% DraftKings Boom/51.7% FanDuel Boom

The New Orleans Pelicans have won five of their last seven games, but their injuries are starting to add up. CJ McCollum remains out due to the COVID protocols and now Brandon Ingram is doubtful tonight with an injury. Larry Nance Jr. and Naji Marshall are listed as questionable to play, which will open up for as much usage and production as Zion Williamson can handle. Williamson has the second-highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight as he is leading the Pelicans in scoring with 22.4 points per game while shooting 57.5% from the field.

Despite a laundry list of injuries, the Pelicans are five-point home favorites against the Thunder with an implied total of 118.75 points. Williamson has the second-highest value in our Stokastic projections for both sites, while ranking 10th in raw fantasy points on FanDuel and 11th on DraftKings. He leads the Pelicans with a 28.1% usage rate, but expect that number to sky rocket with both McCollum and Ingram likely out. Williamson is one of the best mid-range plays maybe all season, as he has a massive upside while still being priced under $8,000 on both sites.

NBA DFS Boom: Jose Alvarado: $4,300 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel

63.6% DraftKings Boom/56.6% FanDuel Boom

Staying with the Pelicans, Jose Alvarado has the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel by a landslide. Alvarado has started four games for the Pelicans this season and is playing 26.9 minutes per game during that time. Our Stokastic projections have Alvarado 29.8 minutes tonight as he has the highest value on both sites. Pairing Williamson and Alvarado together is going to be very popular as both players rank in the top three on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight in our first ownership run. They are impossible to ignore on this slate with so many teammates out and such a great matchup.

The Thunder at 8-12 are coming off of a loss to the Rockets who have the worst record in the Western Conference. They rank 21st in defensive rating, while playing at the fourth fastest pace in the league. Allowing 118.3 points per game, the Thunder are one of the most exploitable defenses in the league. Even if Alvarado isn’t a high usage type of player he will accumulate stats simply by being involved in the offense as the starting point guard. He may be extremely popular, but Alvarado is the best value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

NBA DFS Bust: Pascal Siakam: $9,700 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel

48.0% DraftKings Bust/50.0% FanDuel Bust

There isn’t a clear-cut fade on this 10-game slate tonight. Everyone seems properly priced and no one truly has a very high bust percentage. Pascal Siakam is questionable to play tonight after missing 10 straight games. Keep an eye on our Starting Lineups page to make sure Siakam is in the lineup, but he is projected to be back tonight in this matchup against the Cavaliers. Our Stokastic projections have Siakam projected to play 33.7 minutes and he is one of the worst values on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

Siakam was having a great season before his injury. He is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, and assists this season while nearly averaging a triple-double. However, not only is this a spot where Siakam could be limited, but he is also in a brutal matchup against the Cavaliers who rank third in defensive rating this season. They are allowing 107.4 points per game, which ranks as the fourth-best in the league. This game has the lowest total by far on the slate at 215.5 points. Even if Siakam doesn’t play, this is a fade on the entire Raptors and Cavaliers game with such a low total.

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