The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 2/20/21
Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Hornets (+2): 234
Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry is a decent pay up option although he is not a priority play for me on this slate. My initial builds have me getting less exposure to him than the field since I prefer Damian Lillard and LeBron James as stud options for this slate. This isn’t even a bad spot for Steph but it seems like every Warriors’ slate, there is some other All-Star player who makes more sense than him for roster construction. The point guard position is loaded.
The only player I am getting a decent amount of exposure to is a site specific play. Draymond Green is much cheaper on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel and he is playing better as of late. Since Kevon Looney and James Wiseman both got hurt, Green is playing more center minutes and it’s leading to increased fantasy production. The offense is running through him and he is basically the point guard at this point on offense while playing center on defense. This is creating more assists and defensive stats. Green has at least eight assists in eight consecutive games.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Steph Curry, Draymond Green
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Steph Curry
Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball is putting up staggering numbers since moving into the starting lineup. Not only are his counting numbers terrific, he is also playing with great efficiency. As the starting point guard, he’s averaging 20.9 points, 6.3 assists and 6.9 rebounds on 44.6/43.9/90 shooting splits. In an uptempo game against the Warriors, he’s one of my favorite point guard plays on the slate. In addition, Ball is getting a slight boost because Devonte’ Graham remains out. His absence also makes Gordon Hayward one of the better small forward plays since his price has gone down on both sites.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks:LeMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward
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Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers (-3): 208
Miami Heat
I am not really getting to any Heat exposure right now. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler aren’t terrible options, but it makes more sense to pay up for other stars. Due to the Grizzlies’ injury news, there’s a bunch of value on this slate. It isn’t hard to pay a bit extra money to get up to the studs above Butler and Adebayo. The only player I have any interest in from Miami is Kelly Olynyk on FanDuel and it’s mostly due to positional scarcity.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kelly Olynyk
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers continue to deal with the absence of Anthony Davis and it doesn’t look like he’s returning to action anytime soon. Los Angeles will revisit his status in four week so who knows when he actually gets back to game action. AD isn’t the only player missing since Dennis Schroder is currently in the Health And Safety Protocol. He will miss his second consecutive game tonight. With both of them off the court, LeBron James has to do just about everything for the Lakers. His usage swells to 34.6% when Davis and Schroder are off the court and we can expect him to get a couple extra minutes.
As for a value play, Talen Horton-Tucker played 28 minutes last game. This makes him a viable value play although I am having a difficult time projecting his minutes. Both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Wesley Matthews briefly left Thursday’s game with injuries. They returned to action but it’s hard to know if THT would have played the same minutes without those injuries. I am getting some exposure to him on DraftKings although the Grizzlies’ value are higher priority plays.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James, Talen Horton-Tucker
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James
Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls (+2): 235
Sacramento Kings
Following a couple of rough games in a row, De’Aaron Fox‘s price dipped fairly significantly on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He was playing great prior to those two games so I don’t put much stock into it. Chicago plays at the fourth fastest pace in the league and has a below-average defensive efficiency which makes this a good spot for Fox to get back on track. It’s also nice that he is projected for the least ownership of all the high end point guard plays on tonight’s slate.
As a FanDuel specific play, I like Tyrese Haliburton. Anthony Edwards is drawing a ton of attention because of his dunk last night but Haliburton is the second best rookie in this class behind Ball. He does a little bit of everything off the bench for the Kings with the second highest assist rate on the team while also shooting 44.1% from three. There is additional value that could potentially open up here since Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes and Glenn Robinson III are all questionable to play.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls rotation is a bit of a mess at the moment. Minutes are difficult to predict here after the Bulls changed their second half starting lineup two games ago against the Pistons. They went back to their normal rotation last game although I am still wary of trusting much from Chicago. The only player we can have confidence in is Zach LaVine. Everything Chicago does flows through him as the minutes are spread thin elsewhere at the moment.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine
Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies (+4): 225.5
Phoenix Suns
With all of the value and strong plays opening up for tonight’s slate, the Suns are one of the easiest teams for me to avoid. Devin Booker and Chris Paul rarely have big games when both of them are active. It’s tough for these two ball dominant players to thrive from a fantasy perspective at the same time. The addition of Paul is also seemingly taking away from the upside of Deandre Ayton since he has very few big games this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Memphis Grizzlies
This is the big value spot for tonight’s slate. Grayson Allen, Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks are all out of tonight’s game due to a combination of rest and other ailments. The only positive news for Memphis is that Justise Winslow is questionable to play. He is yet to see the court this season. I don’t expect him to play, but even if he does, I suspect he won’t play big minutes.
Memphis could potentially play tonight with only nine players active. This is going to lead to a tight rotation and big minutes for the core players that are available. Jonas Valanciunas is my favorite center play on FanDuel for this reason. He is a great points per minute producer although we rarely get to see him log big minutes. This should change tonight. Ja Morant figures to pick up extra usage while Xavier Tillman, De’Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane and John Konchar all should score over 20 fantasy points at cheap price tags. The priority values will depend on the starting lineup. I will get more exposure to Memphis than any other team tonight by a wide margin.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks:Jonas Valanciunas, Ja Morant, Xavier Tillman, De’Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane, John Konchar
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks:Jonas Valanciunas, Ja Morant, Xavier Tillman, De’Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane, John Konchar
Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers (-4): 242
Washington Wizards
There isn’t much to say here. While the matchup is great and this game has the highest total on the slate, pretty much all the production here comes from Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal. Nobody else stands out as a strong option and even Westbrook and Beal aren’t primary plays for me. I prefer paying up for LeBron and Damian Lillard before getting to Westbrook and Beal. I will have them in my player pool and likely end up slightly under the field on both of these star guards.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks:Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal
Portland Trail Blazers
Last, but not least, we get to the Blazers and Damian Lillard. Portland has the highest team total on tonight’s slate in a great matchup against the Wizards. Dame is my favorite point guard option on FanDuel and the field seems to agree based on his lofty ownership projection. Even so, I think he’s good chalk in this spot due to the total of this game and how much the offense is concentrated around Lillard because of the Blazers’ injuries. Lillard has a usage rate north of 30% in eight consecutive games and he’s gone over 40% in two of the last three games.
Enes Kanter is also making it into a good portion of my lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings. His minutes tend to fluctuate a bit although I think they are more secure now since Harry Giles is out with a calf injury. I am not looking at any of the cheaper plays here due to all the value on Memphis.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard, Enes Kanter
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks:Damian Lillard, Enes Kanter
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