NBA DFS Picks Projections & Ownerhsip for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. This article’s goal isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections, and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.

NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 3/27/21

Guards

Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) – There are many injuries to dissect on tonight’s slate. One of the most significant injuries has Bradley Beal listed questionable on the injury report because of foot soreness. With the Wizards fading from the playoff hunt, it is interesting to see how hard they will push Russ and Beal when they aren’t totally healthy. Beal’s play has dropped off recently, and maybe he can use the night off. Russ has picked up his play following a rough start to the season and is now solidly the best fantasy producer on Washington. He has at least 58 DraftKings points in six of the last seven games and would carry a ton of usage if Beal is out.

John Wall ($8,400 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) – The man Westbrook was traded for, it’s unclear how the Rockets will handle Wall tonight since this is the tail end of a back-to-back. He played in both games the last time Houston had games on consecutive days, so I am assuming the same will happen today. Since Victor Oladipo was traded at the deadline, it looks like Wall will carry a huge workload on offense the rest of the season. In the last five games, he has a 38.1% usage rate.

Paul George ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) – After missing the Clippers’ last game, Kawhi Leonard is listed as questionable to play today. It’s unclear how severe the injury is but the Clippers have proceeded with caution when it comes to Kawhi’s health over the last year and a half. If he’s out, we can fire up George as a strong play again. When Leonard is off the court this season, PG13 has a 33.9% usage rate and scores 44.91 DraftKings’ points per 36 minutes.

Tyrese Haliburton ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) – I have written about Haliburton a ton over the last week. Now that he doesn’t have a minutes restriction, his production has gone through the roof as a starter. The Kings are missing Marvin Bagley, and as a result, the team is playing more small-ball lineups. Haliburton is now playing 36 minutes in close games, and I don’t think his price has adjusted enough since he scores about a fantasy point per minute for the season.

Jordan Clarkson ($5,300 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) – Since this is the tail end of a back-to-back, I am under the assumption that Mike Conley will not play. Conley hasn’t played consecutive games since the start of February. He isn’t listed on the injury report, so he may play, but I don’t see a real need with the Jazz comfortably sitting in first in the Western Conference as a sizable favorite tonight. As long as Conley sits, Clarkson stands to gain a significant amount of minutes even though he won’t move into the starting lineup. He’s played well in most games that Conley missed this season, although we can leave him out of our player pool if Conley ends up playing.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) – Lonzo Ball is doubtful to play tonight, meaning NWA is likely sticking in the starting lineup. This is a role he’s thrived in this season. Alexander-Walker has made six starts in place of Ball this season, and he’s averaging 33.04 DraftKings points in those games. NWA has over 30 fantasy points in all three of the recent games that Ball missed.

Eric Bledsoe ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) – Some people just want to watch the world burn. I don’t think Bledsoe is quite as bad as most other folks think, and like Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Bledsoe benefits from the absence of Lonzo Ball. Bledsoe should play a few more minutes, and he gets to spend more time with the ball in his hands during those minutes. The results are never consistent with Bledsoe, but he played 34 minutes and racked up nine assists on his way to 39 DraftKings’ points last game, and his salary hasn’t changed on either site.

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Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Tyrese Haliburton, Jordan Clarkson

Forwards

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) – Luka Doncic is once again questionable on the injury report after missing last night’s game. Oddly, Porzingis is less expensive on DraftKings than last night when he scored 31 points and pulled down 18 rebounds without his star teammate. Even if Doncic plays, KP is a good play at this price point. If Doncic is out, Porzinigis becomes a must-play in cash games on both sites and one of the stronger GPP options. When Luka is off the court, Porzingis has a 31.9% usage rate this season.

Jerami Grant ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) – Grant is always a bit too cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings. There are not many players I have rostered more this season, and there is a chance he is the player I have the most exposure to in all of NBA DFS over the course of this season. At times, Grant’s efficiency is sketchy, but his usage is always there, which gives him a solid floor. Over the last month, Grant has a 33.5% usage rate and is averaging 23.4 points per game. With the Pistons getting even thinner at the Trade Deadline, Grant gets all the shots he wants.

Jayson Tatum ($8,400 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) – Tatum is as cheap as we have seen his price in some time. It’s crazy to think that he’s nearly the same price as Jaylen Brown. Coming into the season, I thought Tatum would break out and become a vastly better fantasy producer, but this isn’t the case. At least for today, this doesn’t matter as much since Kemba Walker is resting. Even Fournier isn’t ready to make his Celtics’ debut, so Tatum should see more shot volume than normal. He leads the Celtics with a 33% usage rate with Walker off the court this season.

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Keldon Johnson ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) – Johnson is a tough player to nail down, although I am developing more confidence in his playing time than I had a couple of weeks ago. Other than a game against the Clippers, which ended in a blowout, he’s played at least 28 minutes in seven consecutive games and played as many as 39 minutes over this stretch. Lonnie Walker is out with a wrist injury which should further solidify the minutes for Johnson.

Malik Beasley ($6,800 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) – Beasley is a FanDuel specific play this slate and one that I like a lot. Coming off a suspension, FanDuel drastically lowered his price while DraftKings left it unchanged from before he left the Timberwolves. Beasley was a lead ball-handler for Minnesota before the suspension, and I expect him to jump back into the starting lineup. He was priced as high as $7,400 on FanDuel just before his time off, so we are looking at a sizable discount. Beasley’s return marginalizes the roles of Anthony Edwards and Ricky Rubio going forward.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum, Jerami Grant, Keldon Johnson

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum, Malik Beasley, Kristaps Porzingis

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Centers

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel) – Towns could lose a couple of shots with Beasley getting back to action, although I am not too concerned. His salary on both sites is too cheap for his recent level of production. Towns has a usage rate north of 31% in six of his last nine games. It took him a while to get going this season due to a bout with COVID and all his well-known family issues, and we are finally seeing him back at an All-Star level. We are also seeing a bit more playmaking from Towns than we have seen in the past. He had eight assists against the Rockets last night and put up six in the game prior. KAT is in line for another big fantasy game against the same terrible Rockets’ defense he picked apart yesterday.

Robert Williams ($6,600 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) – On a point per dollar basis, Williams is pretty clearly the top center option on the slate for me. The Celtics traded away Daniel Theis at the Trade Deadline and, while they got back Mo Wagner, I don’t think he will cut into Williams’ minutes. Williams is playing much too well to take playing time away from. Tristan Thompson is in the Health and Safety Protocol, so Boston only has two viable centers between Wagner and Williams anyway. Williams made his first start of the season last game and scored 41.75 DraftKings points. Considering his per-minute production this season of 1.32 fantasy points per minute, his assent to a fantasy superstar seems inevitable.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Robert Williams

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Robert Williams

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.