NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

For Thursday night, there are four NBA games on the schedule, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | Jan. 28

Point Guard: Damian Lillard

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

The Trail Blazers have been without C.J. McCollum (foot) and Jusuf Nurkic (wrist) for their last three and will be without them for the foreseeable future, putting a large weight on Lillard’s shoulders. To no surprise, Lillard has fully embraced the role, producing 53.8 DraftKings points per game with a 34.6% usage rate. Starting power forward Robert Covington (concussion) will also miss his second straight contest tonight, and the Blazers rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency over their last three games. Until they get healthier, this Portland club will be competing in shootouts on a nightly basis, and Thursday’s tilt with the Rockets easily has the highest game total of this four-game slate (229 points).

This will be the Blazers’ second date with Houston this season, and in the first meeting Lillard posted 53.75 DraftKings points in the 128-126 victory. For the season the Rockets are giving up the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing point guards, and Lillard is the only player on the slate tonight projected for over 50 fantasy points via Awesemo’s projections. He is the top overall play on both sites, but Lillard is a very difficult fade on FanDuel at only $9,700.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 30.2%, FanDuel 55.5%

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Center: Enes Kanter

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A

Covington’s absence on Monday, in addition to Nurkic and McCollum, pushed Kanter up to 31.5 minutes against the Thunder. This marked a new season high for the center, and as expected, it translated to a massive score of 50.5 DraftKings points. Ever since he joined the NBA, Kanter has always been an outstanding fantasy producer; it’s a just a matter of whether he can play decent enough defense to stay on the floor. In 2020-21, Kanter is generating 1.33 DraftKings points per minute, and regardless of his defensive issues, we have to expect him to approach or even exceed 30 minutes again tonight with Covington already confirmed out.

This Rockets defense Kanter is going against has been weak at defending centers, surrendering the ninth-most DraftKings points per game to the position. Kanter has already recorded over 50 DraftKings points twice in these first four since Nurkic broke his wrist. Nothing is ever guaranteed with Kanter, but with only four games on the card, he is a necessary risk.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 18.1%, FanDuel 32.3%

Point Guard: Reggie Jackson

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: C

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A

If you’re playing FanDuel tonight, I don’t see how you can keep Jackson out of your lineup at only $5,000. Kawhi Leonard (health protocols), Paul George (health protocols) and Patrick Beverley (knee) will all be inactive for the second straight contest, and Jackson went off for 47.4 FanDuel points in a team-high 39.1 minutes Tuesday with these three starters away from the team. Following this showing, Jackson is averaging 1.0 fantasy points per minute sans Jackson, George and Leonard in 2020-21, and now he gets a strong matchup against the Heat.

With Miami also missing a slew of key players over the last few weeks, their defense has rated as the fifth-worst unit in the NBA over their past 10games. Lastly, via the oddsmakers in Vegas, Jackson’s current prop line has him slated for 17 points, 6 assists and 4 rebounds this evening, which is 30.8 FanDuel points before defensive stats. As for DraftKings, Jackson is a terrific GPP target on the site. His salary has jumped from a bare minimum $3,000 two games ago to $7,000 for tonight, which should keep his ownership somewhat in check, even for a short slate like this.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 15.7%, FanDuel 35.5%

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Power Forward: Jae Crowder

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

Assuming Devin Booker (hamstring) sits again, Crowder will continue to start for the Suns and provide great value. In these past two with the former Kentucky guard hurt, Crowder has recorded 38.25 DraftKings points against the Nuggets and then 36.25 DraftKings points against the Thunder. As a starter, he has logged 33.2 minutes and his usage has increased to 23.4%. Prior to this, with Booker playing every game, Crowder was only receiving a usage rate of 15.2%.

Now enter in a positive matchup against the Warriors, who rank third in pace and seventh in most DraftKings points per game allowed to power forwards over their last 10. Crowder is a very appealing option at the always-thin power forward position.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 21.5%, FanDuel 21.2%

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