Coming off an injury-filled, nine-game Friday night slate, Saturday’s six-game slate should be a lot easier to navigate. This article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high-and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for today, including Robert Williams III and Steven Adams, to help you build optimal NBA DFS lineups.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
Robert Williams III looks great in a matchup against the Hornets and should go severely under-owned, with only 10.6% of rosters expected to have him on DraftKings. As of this writing, Williams looks like one of the top options DFS players can look to for leverage.
Matched up with a Hornets team that gets absolutely destroyed by opposing big men, Williams couldn’t ask for a better matchup. Williams started and played 29 minutes on Thursday but still only costs $4,900 on DraftKings and isn’t picking up much ownership despite his massive ceiling in this spot.
Williams is getting a bit more love on FanDuel, as he shows up in 13.3% of lineups, but he still projects to be under-owned with both power forward and center eligibility and a price tag of $6,000. With the Celtics 8-point favorites in a game with a 232-point total, Williams is a building-block type tournament play, as he is currently projected to be optimal 19.4% of the time on DraftKings and 21.6% of the time on FanDuel, offering strong leverage on both sites.
Steven Adams is also flying way under the radar tonight. Priced at $6,100 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel, Adams is in a dream spot against an Indiana frontcourt that just gave up 62 DraftKings points to Onyeka Okongwu.
Adams is right there with Williams as one of the top leverage plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The veteran center has seen his production tick up significantly with fellow big man Brandon Clarke sidelined. While Clarke is questionable tonight, he hasn’t played since New Year’s Eve and wasn’t expected back quite yet, so he probably won’t get many minutes even if he does play.
Despite the elite matchup against an injury-ravaged Pacers front court, Adams should only draw 8% ownership on DraftKings and 1.9% ownership on FanDuel. With an optimal percentage of 12.1% on DraftKings and 6.1% on FanDuel, Adams makes an elite tournament play at both sites.
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On the other side, Walker Kessler rates poorly from a leverage perspective on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and might be worth fading. At only $4,700 on DraftKings, Kessler is projected to find himself in 16.6% of rosters with an optimal percentage of only 3.5%.
Kessler’s affordable price and recent production will make him a popular value tonight, but the opportunity cost at center is a large one, and with other value players like Robert Williams and Jalen McDaniels going under-owned, it might be wise to avoid him in large-field tournaments.
Situations to Monitor
Quite a few big-name players have earned questionable tags. They include Damian Lilliard, Christian Wood, Myles Turner, Tobias Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke. Keep a close eye on the injury reports as tip-off approaches.
NBA injury news is always unpredictable, and it seems like every night we get unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows on YouTube at 4:45 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.
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