NBA DFS Optimizer Picks: Luka Doncic Worth Spending Up For

For Tuesday night, we get a four-game slate to attack. In this article, I will be analyzing Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate, to see how we should handle the high and low owned players to gain leverage in GPPs. Let’s dive into our NBA DFS optimizer picks including Luka Doncic and more. Be sure to visit OddsShopper, for the latest betting odds and trends.

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NBA DFS Optimizer Picks & Leverage Plays

High-End Tier

For this short slate, Luka Doncic is expected to be the most rostered player of the night, with his projected ownership hovering around 50% for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. The superstar has been magnificent through his first two starts, scoring 61 DraftKings points per game behind a league-best 38.2% usage rate and is going against a beat-up Pelicans’ team that will be without Brandon Ingram (concussion), Zion Williamson (hip) and Herbert Jones (knee). Additionally, Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) is doubtful for the Mavericks, resulting in a godly workload for Doncic. In the 2,177 minutes he has played with Hardaway Jr. off the court since the start of the last season, Doncic’s usage has elevated to 39.1% and he has supplied a massive 1.63 DraftKings points per minute.

For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Doncic is still nearly a $1,000 cheaper than he was to close last season and his ceiling is the highest on the slate by nearly 20 fantasy points in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. Furthermore, Doncic’s optimal lineup percentage score is the highest on the slate and his leverage score ranks top-five for both DraftKings and FanDuel. So, while he is slated to be far and away be the most owned player, eating the chalk with Doncic and differentiating yourself in different spots of your lineup is the right move, as it is extremely likely he leads the slate in fantasy points by a sizable gap. The Mavs’ boast an implied team total of 112 points tonight and over the last two seasons, Doncic has exceeded 60 DraftKings points at a 50% clip when playing behind an implied team total of at least 110 points.

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Conversely, Deandre Ayton is rating as a poor leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. The center is projecting to be a top-seven most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is a sharp fade against the Warriors. Golden State’s defense finished second in defensive efficiency last season, and he recorded less than 40 DraftKings points in three of four matchups with the defending champions last season. A smart pivot to consider at center is Jonas Valanciunas, who is forecasted for about a third of the ownership as Ayton in Stokastic’s projections. Valanciunas is going to be one of the primary beneficiaries with the Pelicans understaffed. With Ingram and Williamson off the court since the start of last season, Valanciunas’ usage has increased 2.9 percentage points to 28%, lifting him to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute. Let’s now take a look at some value plays in our NBA optimizer DFS picks.

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Value Tier

The Clippers will be without Paul George (illness) and Marcus Morris (personal) tonight, creating many value plays to consider. Norman Powell is expected to be the most owned player in this situation – ranking top-three in ownership for both sites – but carries an ugly leverage score with the huge ownership in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. The former Raptor has shot a team-worst 25.9% from the field this season, which has translated to less than 20 DraftKings points in all three of his first games of the season. Also, the Clippers are deep on the wings and Powell’s workload may not be as secure as it seems. Luke Kennard, Robert Covington and Nicolas Batum are all going to see role upgrades, with Terance Mann also mixing in, and last, but not least, Kawhi Leonard is going handle a massive usage rate, starter or not. While he won’t be low owned, Covington is expected to be less popular than Powell and is rating as a better leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, making him the best value to attack from the shorthanded Clippers. Stokastic has him projected for 28.1 minutes of work, which is plenty of time for the defensive specialist to stuff the stat sheet and beat his low salaries. Covington has contributed 1.1 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season and 33.3 DraftKings points per game for the last 10 times he has logged a minimum of 25 minutes.

Another value to consider that might get slightly overlooked with the Clippers gaining the most attention is Lu Dort. Facing Los Angeles, the Thunder are going to be without their top two players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (hip) and Josh Giddey (ankle) tonight. With these two players off the court over the last two seasons, Dort has operated as Oklahoma City’s main weapon, posting a team-high 28.3% usage rate, which is a large 5.4 percentage point increase from his average. While a much less safe option, Aleksej Pokusevski also has a ton of merit as a GPP flier with the Thunder shorthanded, with Stokastic projecting for him essentially no ownership. After Dort and Tre Mann, Pokusevski is arguably the best playmaker left on this roster, and regardless of if he starts or not, Pokusevski should see close to 25 minutes tonight. With Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey off the court since the start of last season, Pokusevski has handled a 21.6% usage rate and provided one DraftKings points per minute.

Update: Gilgeous-Alexnader has been upgraded to questionable. If the guard suits up, he will be an excellent target against his former team, that shouldn’t be overly popular, given the injury concerns and late change in status. Since the start of last season, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 1.42 DraftKings points per minute thanks to a team-high 34.6% usage rate with Giddey off the court. While his upside would decrease, Dort would remain viable in this situation as the Thunder’s No.2 option and would likely come with lower ownership than expected. However, if Gilgeous-Alexander is active, Pokusevski would lose his appeal for large tournaments, with his expected playing time decreasing significantly.

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