NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Data Analysis & Strategy

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

Note: We changed the format of the article to try and make it a little bit easier to digest. As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Feb. 26

Point Guard

Damian Lillard ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) takes on the Lakers as a 5-point underdog in a game with a 222 point total. The matchup against the Lakers isn’t the best, but their defense is less imposing without Anthony Davis. Lillard has averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.4 percent usage rate and 44.6 percent assist rate in 17 games played without C.J. McCollum this season.

Stephen Curry ($9,700 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) gets a matchup with a Charlotte Hornets squad that has struggled defensively recently. The Hornets rank 22nd in defensive rating and eighth in pace over the last month. The Warriors are second in pace over that time, so this should be a game that features a lot of possessions. Curry leads Golden State with 34.7 minutes per game over the last month and he has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.3 percent usage rate and 30.2 percent assist rate this season.

Trae Young ($9,900 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) takes on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight as a 5.5-point road favorite. Young has plenty of competition at the top of the point guard position, which should keep his ownership down in tournaments. He has averaged 36.4 minutes per game over the last month and 1.37 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 33.2 percent usage rate and 43.2 percent assist rate. This also sets up as a good matchup for Young from a play type standpoint as the Thunder have allowed the sixth-most pick-and-roll possessions per game this season and they rank in the 31st percentile in points per possession allowed to pick-and-roll ball-handlers. Young is tied with Luka Doncic for the most pick-and-roll possessions per game and ranks in the 79th percentile in points per possession.

LaMelo Ball ($8,700 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) has an interesting matchup against Golden State tonight. On one hand, the Warriors have played at the second-fastest pace over the last month and Ball should benefit from an above average number of possessions. On the other hand, the Warriors have been the second-most efficient defense in the league over that time. Ball has averaged 34.1 minutes per game and 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games started this season and I am assuming he will be in the starting lineup tonight against Golden State. He is expensive on DraftKings, but extremely affordable on FanDuel. A solid NBA DFS pick tonight.

De’Aaron Fox ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) played 38.5 minutes against the Knicks last night and lost about four minutes to garbage time. He has been playing absolutely massive minutes recently and I have no idea why he remains as inexpensive as he is. For the season, Fox has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with a 30 percent usage rate and 34.7 percent assist rate. He has averaged 36.2 minutes per game over the last month (15 games played). He looks like one of the best mid-range guard NBA DFS pick options on the slate.

Ja Morant ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) is a bit more difficult to trust than Fox since he plays fewer minutes, but there is no doubt that his upside is enormous at this price point. Morant has only averaged 30.7 minutes per game in 15 games played over the last month but he has averaged 32.3 minutes per game in his last 10 games. I expect this to be the case going forward as Memphis limited their starters’ playing time a little bit when they first returned from their COVID layoff. Morant has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute this season and leads the Grizzlies with a 29.4 percent usage rate and 38.3 percent assist rate.

Kyle Lowry ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) returned to the lineup against Miami on Wednesday and played 35 minutes after missing a couple of games with a thumb injury. Lowry has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season and he is available at a discount compared to his teammates in a matchup against a Houston team that ranks fourth in pace (but also seventh in defensive efficiency) over the last month. His salary is much more appealing on DraftKings than it is on FanDuel.

Mike Conley ($6,100 DraftKings/ $6,000 FanDuel) has a tough matchup tonight against the Miami Heat. Miami has played at the 28th-fastest pace over the last month and they have been the fourth-most efficient defense as they have gotten back to full strength. We don’t have much value at the guard position (yet), however, so Conley looks like a reasonable option if you can’t quite reach the tier of players above him. He has averaged 29 to 30 minutes per game and 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Saben Lee ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) and Dennis Smith Jr. ($4,600 DraftKings/ $4,900 FanDuel) are both in play on DraftKings in particular. The matchup against the Kings is a good one and both players are reasonably priced if they happen to be on the winning end of the point guard split tonight. In three games without Delon Wright, Smith has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in 20 minutes per game while Lee has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in 27.7 minutes per game. Lee has played the bulk of the minutes in two games while Smith played 26.1 minutes to Lee’s 21.9 minutes in their last game on Wednesday. The minutes are volatile for both players but, as long as their salaries remain inexpensive, they will offer plenty of upside as NBA DFS picks in tournaments.

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Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) offers more value at shooting guard than he would at point guard tonight as this position has much less to offer. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 34.7 minutes per game over the last month but we can normally count on a few more minutes if the game is competitive. He could also benefit from the absence of Al Horford and Hamidou Diallo tonight. Horford has the second-highest usage rate and second-highest assist rate in the starting lineup and Gilgeous-Alexander obviously is capable of picking up the slack in both categories. Diallo typically comes off the bench, but he has the second-highest usage rate on the team. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.6 percent usage rate and 34 percent assist rate in 489 minutes without Horford on the floor this season compared to 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.7 percent usage rate and 29.6 percent assist rate in 396 minutes played alongside Horford.

Zach LaVine ($9,600 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel) is expensive and has a tough matchup against a Phoenix team that is eighth in defensive rating and 24th in pace over the last month. LaVine looks more like a GPP option than a cash option, therefore, but there is no denying his upside. He has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute and 37 minutes per game in 13 games played without Lauri Markkanen and alongside Wendell Carter this season. He has a 32.4 percent usage rate and 21.0 percent assist rate in those games and he has been one of the best true shooting rates in the NBA this season among players with at least 30 percent usage.

Paul George ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) is another option who projects as a mediocre point-per-dollar value but does offer significant raw point upside at a relatively weak position. George played 28.1 minutes in a blowout loss to the Grizzlies last night, but I think we could see 33-plus minutes tonight if the game is competitive. He has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute with a 29 percent usage rate, 10.9 percent rebounding rate and 25.2 percent assist rate in 22 games played alongside Kawhi Leonard this season.

Devin Booker ($8,000 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) is similar to LaVine and George in that he doesn’t stand out as a great option at his price but he is certainly capable of breaking a slate open. He is less expensive than the other two so he should be a little bit easier to fit into lineups. Booker’s production this season has been hurt by Chris Paul as Booker has only averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games played with Paul. Still, he has averaged 34.3 minutes per game and has a 31.1 percent usage rate in those games. A high usage rate typically indicates a high ceiling even if the average per-minute fantasy production is relatively low.

Terry Rozier ($8,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is expensive on DraftKings but looks like a great value on FanDuel. Rozier has averaged 32.9 minutes per game and 1.01 FanDuel points per minute in six games played without Devonte’ Graham. Rozier will most likely play 34-plus minutes as long as this game is competitive and he should benefit from the extra possessions that a matchup with the Warriors will allow.

Kevin Huerter ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) is never the most exciting option but he is in line for big minutes with De’Andre Hunter still sidelined and Cam Reddish listed as questionable. Huerter has averaged 34.2 minutes per game and 0.78 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games played without Hunter this season. Tonight’s game against Oklahoma City is likely to be high scoring and Huerter should be on the floor for a lot of minutes.

Luguentz Dort ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,400) is another relatively inexpensive shooting guard option who carries some value simply because of his playing time and matchup. Dort has only averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute this season but he could see increased playing time with Diallo (and George Hill) sidelined tonight. Dort has averaged 30.9 minutes per game in 17 games without Hill this season and Diallo typically takes some of his backup minutes. Dort played about 17 second half minutes on Wednesday with Diallo unavailable and I think we could see 33 or 34 minutes from Dort tonight in the game with the second-highest total on the slate.

Small Forward

LeBron James ($10,700 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) has averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute and 34.3 minutes per game with a 31.6 percent usage rate, 12.9 percent rebounding rate and 38.7 percent assist rate in 23 games played with Davis this season. In 10 games played without Davis, James has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.9 percent usage rate, 13.2 percent rebounding rate and 40.9 percent assist rate in 35.9 minutes per game without Davis. I attribute the decrease in point-per-minute production to the relatively small sample, but I also don’t expect Davis’s absence to have a substantial impact on James’ fantasy impact. I do think it increases his ceiling, however. James has a nice matchup against the Blazers who rank 26th in defensive rating over the last month, though they also rank 23rd in pace.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,100 DraftKings/ $9,700 FanDuel) gets a rematch against the Grizzlies after the Clippers were blown out last night. Leonard played 31.6 minutes in last night’s game, but we can expect 35-plus minutes if tonight’s game is competitive. He has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute and 34.4 minutes per game in 22 games played alongside Paul George this season.

Gordon Hayward ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) isn’t the most exciting option but the small forward position doesn’t have a ton of high upside plays tonight. Hayward should benefit from a fast-paced game against the Warriors and he leads the Hornets with 34.9 minutes per game over the last month. We could also see Hayward get more minutes at the four tonight with Cody Zeller doubtful which should have a positive impact on his rebounding numbers.

Harrison Barnes ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) stands out as a strong value at small forward tonight. Normally, I don’t have a strong take one way or the other on Barnes but that isn’t the case on this slate. He is seemingly at full strength after missing a few games recently as he played 35.8 minutes against the Knicks last night and lost about 4minutes to garbage time. Barnes is second to De’Aaron Fox on the Kings in minutes per game over the last month with 35.6. He has also been more productive than normal this season as he has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute.

Kenrich Williams ($3,500 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) is near minimum salary on DraftKings at a weak position on a slate that doesn’t have a ton of cheap value yet. Williams only played 18 minutes off the bench on Wednesday, but we could see him get more playing time without Diallo. It is worth noting that he only played about 9 minutes in the second half without Diallo on Wednesday, so it is possible that he isn’t impacted, but I think that the combination of Diallo’s absence and Horford’s absence should open up more minutes for Williams. Looking at Wednesday’s rotation, Isaiah Roby mostly backed up Darius Bazley while Mike Muscala was the primary backup for Horford. Roby typically starts in place of Horford when he is out and splits center minutes with Muscala. Roby moving to center opens up forward minutes which can go to Williams. Williams has also been used as a playmaker this season so he could pick up guard minutes with Diallo out as well. The point here is that there is some uncertainty in exactly what Oklahoma City’s rotation will look like tonight but Williams can fill various roles and it is likely that he will see increased playing time as a result. He has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season. His salary on DraftKings is much more appealing than on FanDuel.

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Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($10,400 DraftKings/ $9,900 FanDuel) has been a dominant DFS option this season. He has averaged 36 minutes per game in 21 games played with Malcolm Brogdon active and Victor Oladipo inactive this season. He has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in those games with a 26.1 percent usage rate, 17.3 percent rebounding rate and 24.2 percent assist rate. Given those numbers, we can obviously look to Sabonis in tournaments since he has an extremely high ceiling. The issue with Sabonis is that there are a lot of strong value options at power forward tonight (as you will see as you continue reading). There aren’t many good values at other positions, so the optimal roster construction is mostly likely going to involve saving money at power forward and paying up at other positions tonight unless more NBA DFS value picks open up elsewhere.

Jerami Grant ($7,300 DraftKings/ $7,600 FanDuel) sat out of Detroit’s last game but he isn’t on the injury report tonight. He has a 28.3 percent usage rate and 13.2 percent assist rate in 11 games played without Blake Griffin this season and he has averaged 37.1 minutes per game in those games. He also has a favorable matchup against the Kings who have been one of the fastest teams and least efficient defenses in the league all season long.

Pascal Siakam ($7,900 DraftKings/ $8,800 SF FanDuel) is more favorably priced on DraftKings than FanDuel — though he has the preferable positional eligibility on FanDuel. Siakam has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in 24 games played with Lowry and VanVleet active this season. He also could benefit from tonight’s matchup against the Rockets since Houston has a small frontcourt and Siakam will most likely get some playing time at center. He has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute with a 13.2 percent rebounding rate in 181 minutes played without Alex Len, Aron Baynes or Chris Boucher on the floor this season compared to his overall averages of 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and an 11.5 percent rebounding rate.

John Collins ($6,400 DraftKings/ $7,000 FanDuel) is extremely difficult to trust right now since his playing time has been trending down. He hasn’t exceeded 30 minutes in a game in any of his last six games. The reason that I think he is interesting in tournaments tonight is that his salary has started to decrease as a result of his reduced playing time. As we have seen with his frontcourt mate, Clint Capela, there is a lot of volatility in minutes for Collins. It wasn’t long ago that Capela was only playing 28 to 30 minutes and Collins was playing 33 or 34 minutes most nights. We aren’t going to get a pre-game announcement telling us when Collins will see an increase in playing time, but we know that he will occasionally have games where he gets 34 minutes. He has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season so, at his current salary, he should easily be a good play if he happens to find a few extra minutes. I also like tonight’s matchup against the Thunder since they have a small frontcourt and there isn’t anyone that Capela has to be on the floor to defend. This makes it slightly more likely that Collins can find additional playing time.

Marvin Bagley ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) only played about 22 minutes last night but he lost playing time in the third quarter due to foul trouble. Hassan Whiteside is out again tonight so Bagley should get backup center minutes in a favorable matchup against the Pistons. The risk for Bagley is that he still may not be in the closing lineup since the Kings can use Fox-Haliburton-Hield-Barnes-Holmes. Still, he has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season and he should play at least 28 to 30 minutes if he avoids foul trouble and he has the upside for more if he manages to close the game.

Update: Tyrese Haliburton is listed as doubtful, which makes it much more likely that Bagley closes this game.

P.J. Washington ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) should benefit if Zeller misses tonight’s game as expected. Washington’s most productive minutes come when he is playing center and Zeller’s absence would solidify Washington’s minutes at center. Bismack Biyombo has returned to the rotation recently, which has caused most of Washington’s minutes to be at power forward. He has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in 353 minutes without either of Zeller or Biyombo on the floor this season. He has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute alongside Zeller and 0.88 DraftKings points per minute alongside Biyombo. If we assume that Biyombo plays 28 to 30 minutes tonight, that would mean that more than half of Washington’s minutes are projected to be at center. Washington has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games played with Zeller inactive this season compared to 0.82 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games played with Zeller active. He is one of my favorite NBA DFS value picks tonight.

Darius Bazley ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) could play a couple extra minutes tonight with Horford sidelined. Bazley has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute overall this season. Roby has been his primary backup recently, but he will likely start alongside Bazley in the frontcourt. As a result, I think that we could see Bazley play a couple more minutes than the 32.2 minutes per game that he has averaged over the last month.

Isaiah Roby ($4,900 DraftKings/ $4,600 FanDuel) has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute and 26.3 minutes per game in nine starts without Horford this season. He has an 18.8 percent usage rate, 13.3 percent rebounding rate and 14.0 percent assist rate in those games as he has managed to contribute in all categories. The salary is expensive enough that there is some risk here, but he should still outproduce it on average.

Miles Bridges ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) could also benefit from Zeller’s absence. Bridges has been the primary backup to Washington this season and, if Washington is getting more minutes at center, it makes sense for Bridges to see more minutes at the four. Bridges has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is more favorably priced on DraftKings than FanDuel. I also like Washington more than Bridges, but Bridges is likely to be lower owned if you are looking for a tournament NBA DFS pick.

Markieff Morris ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is a low-floor value option that carries plenty of risk. He started the Lakers’ last game in place of Kyle Kuzma and played 27.5 minutes against Utah. Dennis Schroder is probable tonight, which adds one body back into the rotation, but Davis is still out so Morris could start again. He has only averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season and his playing time is volatile so I would rather find the money for some of the power forward values listed above but I realize that in some builds I will need to take a chance on a minimum-priced player in order to fit the stars that I want into my lineup.

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Center

Clint Capela ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) is always a risky option since his playing time has been volatile this season. There are a couple of reasons to like Capela tonight, however. First, his salary is at a reasonable point as it has come down after being at ridiculously high levels earlier in the season. Second, prior to Wednesday’s blowout win over Boston, he had played at least 30 minutes in five straight games. Third, the center position doesn’t have any top end options tonight so the opportunity cost is lower than usual. Capela has been extremely productive when he has been on the floor this season, averaging 1.31 DraftKings points per minute. I mentioned rostering Collins in tournaments earlier and I wouldn’t typically want to roster him and Capela in the same lineup because there is some negative correlation in their playing time and Collins’ most productive minutes come when Capela isn’t on the floor.

Mason Plumlee ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) gets one of the best matchups possible as he takes on the Kings. There is a chance that the Pistons change course at some point and start giving Isaiah Stewart minutes over Plumlee, but that hasn’t happened yet. Plumlee played 32.3 minutes against the Pelicans on Wednesday and about 30 minutes the game before that. He has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with a 15.8 percent usage rate, 18.7 percent rebounding rate and 23.3 percent assist rate in 30,5 minutes per game in 12 games played without Griffin this season.

Enes Kanter ($6,800 DraftKings/ $6,300 FanDuel) is a high-upside NBA DFS pick regardless of site but he stands out on FanDuel. Kanter has averaged 30.4 minutes per game and 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in 19 games played without Jusuf Nurkic this season. He’ll have a substantial size advantage for whatever amount of time he is on the floor against Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol isn’t the most intimidating player at this stage of his career either.

Deandre Ayton ($6,800 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) has taken a step back this season in terms of fantasy production, but he has still averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games with Paul and Booker active and he has averaged 31.5 minutes per game over the last month. Ayton’s backup, Dario Saric, is questionable tonight and Ayton has averaged 33.2 minutes per game in 17 games without him so he would likely see an uptick in playing time if Saric is ruled out. The Bulls have allowed the fourth-most offensive rebounds per game over the last month and Ayton is sixth in the league with 3.5 offensive rebounds per game this season.

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) is questionable tonight after posting 16 points and 15 rebounds in 25 minutes against the Clippers last night. We obviously will need to keep an eye on his status and I expect that Xavier Tillman or Brandon Clarke would start if Valanciunas is out. If he plays, however, he has a high ceiling as he would most likely play 28 to 30 minutes in a competitive game and he has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season, making him one of the best per-minute producers in his price range.

Richaun Holmes ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) played 28 minutes last night and lost about 4 minutes to garbage time. This makes me confident in his playing time as he no longer appears limited in his return from injury. Holmes has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute this season and his playing time should be solidified by the absence of Whiteside.

Wendell Carter ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) has played well when he has been healthy this season. He has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games played without Markkanen this season. We’ve seen Carter approach or exceed 30 minutes recently when he hasn’t been in foul trouble, which makes him an NBA DFS pick with substantial upside in tournaments.

Chris Boucher ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,500 PF FanDuel) stands out as a strong risk/reward play on DraftKings in particular. Boucher’s playing time has been inconsistent this season, but he has the best chance of playing extended minutes when the Raptors are facing a small frontcourt. That will be the case tonight as they take on the Houston Rockets who will most likely use a combination of P.J. Tucker, Jae’Sean Tate and Justin Patton at center. Boucher has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this season so we can’t really find more productive players at his price point. We just need to get lucky in terms of playing time, but the Rockets should allow Nick Nurse to utilize small ball lineups that benefit Boucher.

Mike Muscala ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,100 PF FanDuel) is another inexpensive option that looks better on DraftKings than FanDuel. Muscala typically splits time at center with Roby when Horford is out. He has averaged 20.4 minutes per game and 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without Horford and with Roby this season. Roby is the preferred option, but there is a big gap in salary on DraftKings whereas it is much smaller on FanDuel.

Bismack Biyombo ($3,300 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) has started 13 games without Zeller this season. He has averaged 27.1 minutes per game and 0.83 DraftKings points per minute. We could see tonight’s game go small and Biyombo play less than average, but he could play several minutes less than average and still project as one of the best point-per-dollar NBA DFS picks on the slate.

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Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].