Monday presents a seven-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Monday, Dec. 26.
NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 26
High-End Tier
For tonight’s seven-game slate, DeMar DeRozan is expected to be the most popular high-end option. In Stokastic’s projections, the forward is forecasted to be a top-five most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While DeRozan is in a great spot, at home vs. the Rockets, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency, fading him with the high ownership is the right call for GPPs. DeRozan has scored less than 40 DraftKings points in two of his past three starts and is oddly averaging 10.4 less DraftKings PPG on his home floor than when on the road this season. DeRozan has a tendency to underachieve in compelling matchups and opting to pass on the veteran makes sense from a contrarian perspective. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, DeRozan is rating as a bottom-five option on the slate in terms of leverage score.
With low expected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokasic’s projections, Lauri Markkanen is a tremendous direct pivot off DeRozan. The Jazz will be without Kelly Olynyk (ankle) and get a beautiful matchup vs. the Spurs, who rank dead last in efficiency. Markkanen’s production upgrades to a team-best 1.2 DraftKings PPM with Olynyk off the court this season and this contest’s total is the third highest on the slate (235.5 points). Furthermore, the Jazz’s implied team total is the second largest on the board (120 points). Markkanen is contributing 41.2 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 225 points this season (24 games), including six efforts over 50 DraftKings points.
With Zion Williamson (conditioning) doubtful and Brandon Ingram (toe) out, CJ McCollum is good chalk we should be eating tonight. With both Williamson and Ingram inactive for the last two games, McCollum first erupted for 70.5 DraftKings points vs. the Spurs and then posted 48 DraftKings points vs. the Thunder. In the 326 minutes McCollum has played with Williamson and Ingram off the court this season, the guard has provided 1.2 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his usage and assist rates rising 3.8 and seven percentage points, respectively. As for his matchup, McCollum is in a terrific spot vs. the Pacers. Both New Orleans and Indiana rank inside the top-10 in pace and not only does this game carry the third highest total on the slate (234.5 points), the Pelicans’ implied team total is the fourth largest on the board (118.5 points). Over 50 fantasy points is a likely outcome for McCollum tonight and he needs to be one of your core plays at less than $9K on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value Tier
With Alex Caruso (concussion) out tonight, Stokastic is projecting Ayo Dosunmu to be a top-five most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The guard delivered in the spot start for Caruso on Friday, recording 27.75 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks, but we shouldn’t be chasing this performance with the heavy ownership. Dosunmu only saw a 12.4% usage rate with the starting role and his fantasy production doesn’t move a budge with Caruso off the floor this season, scoring only 0.7 DraftKings PPM. Slated for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Coby White is an awesome direct pivot off Dosunmu. While White disappointed with only 8.5 DraftKings points on Friday, the guard was the main beneficiary in the only other game Caruso has missed this season, recording 29.5 DraftKings points across 31.3 minutes vs. the Hawks. Seeing White outperform Dosumnu wouldn’t be shocking at all and taking a flier on White is a worthwhile gamble for GPPs tonight.
Orlando Robinson is expected to be chalky on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but is too strong of a punt to ignore tonight. Bam Adebayo (illness) and Dewayne Dedmon (foot) are both out and the last time these two centers sat, Robinson didn’t start, but operated as the Heat’s primary center, recording 30 DraftKings points in a season-high 36 minutes vs. the Rockets. The 6’10” big man collects 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season and his size is going to be essential for tonight’s matchup vs. Rudy Gobert and the Wolves. Robinson should receive a minimum of 25 minutes and has a ceiling north of 30 fantasy points in this up-tempo spot vs. Minnesota. This season, the Wolves rank sixth in pace, compared to the Heat, who rank 27th.
Lastly, Ivica Zubac is an appealing GPP option tonight, with Stokastic forecasting the center for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Tonight, the Clippers are going against a Pistons’ club that ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency and is giving up the third most point in the paint this season. Detroit prefers to have a natural center on the floor at all times, which should translate into high minutes for Zubac. In Los Angeles’ first matchup of the season with the Pistons, the center finished with 30.5 DraftKings points in a season-high 39 minutes. The Clippers boast an implied team total of 115.25 points tonight and Zubac is amassing 36.46 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of 115 points or more this season (seven games), with no performances less than 29.5 DraftKings points.
Situations to Monitor
Jimmy Butler (ankle) is questionable tonight and if he joins Adebayo on the sidelines, Tyler Herro would be an elite target. With Butler and Adebayo off the floor this season, Herro’s usage jumps seven percentage points to 32.4% and he scores 1.3 DraftKings, both of which are team-highs for this situation. Haywood Highsmith would also be locked into a 30+ minute role and be a value play to consider if Butler sits. For the nine occasions Highsmith has logged over 25 minutes this season, the wing has responded with 21.5 DraftKings PPG.
On top of Williamson and Ingram, Herbert Jones (health and safety protocols) has been ruled out for the Pelicans, while Trey Murphy (illness), Dyson Daniels (illness) and Larry Nance (Achilles) are questionable. Murphy has played a huge role for the Pelicans with Williamson and Ingram out and if he joins their lengthy inactive list, Jose Alvarado and Naji Marshall would be forced to play huge minutes and be compelling value plays in this prime spot vs. the Pacers. With Williamson and Ingram off the floor this season, Alvarado and Marshall supply one and 0.9 DraftKings PPM, respectively. Finally, if Nance is sidelined, Willy Hernangomez would be an appealing punt play, especially at only $3,400 on DraftKings. The center would be Jonas Valanciunas primary backup in this situation and see 15-20 minutes, which is plenty of time for him to beat that near minimum price tag. This season, Hernangomez is averaging 1.3 DraftKings PPM and 28.5 DraftKings PPG for the three instances he has logged over 15 minutes.
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