NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays: Zion Williamson Strong Pivot

Wednesday presents an eight-game slate, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will use leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Wednesday, Dec. 28.

NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 28

High-End Tier

For the second straight night, paying up for Nikola Jokic is expected to be a very common strategy. He is expected to be the second-most owned player on the slate on DraftKings according to Stokastic’s projections. Jokic disappointed with only 51.25 DraftKings points against the Kings last night and will remain in Sacramento for a rematch this evening. So why is he expected to be popular again? Well, this matchup’s total is the highest on the slate (236.5 points) and the Nuggets are likely to be shorthanded. Jamal Murray will likely be rested with this being the second leg of a back-to-back and the Nuggets may also be without Bruce Brown (ankle), who exited last night’s contest and was unable to return.

While these factors would suggest a big night from Jokic, fading him for the second day in a row is a sharp move that will separate lineups from the field tonight. Jokic has been dramatically worse on the road this season, averaging 11.1 DraftKings points per game less than when at home. With his performance last night, Jokic has scored fewer than 60 DraftKings points in 75% of his road starts this season. Furthermore, Murray and Brown’s absences haven’t benefited Jokic, contrary to popular belief. The big man has recorded less than 60 DraftKings points in two of the three starts he has made without Murray this season and with both Brown and Murray off the court, Jokic’s assist rate has dropped 12.8 percentage points, decreasing his fantasy production from 1.7 to 1.6 DraftKings points per minute. Lastly, playing his second game in two nights is never optimal, and over the last two seasons, Jokic has been 3.3 DraftKings points per game worse on the second leg of a back-to-back.

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Instead of rostering a highly owned Jokic, saving some money and building around a low-owned Zion Williamson is a great call. He should be fresh after sitting out the last three games due to health protocols and returns at the perfect time with the Wolves coming to town. Minnesota and New Orleans both rank inside the top seven in pace this season and this contest’s total is the third highest on the slate (233.5 points). Additionally, the Pelicans’ implied team total is the second largest on the board (120 points) and they will remain without Brandon Ingram (toe). Williamson is averaging 51.4 DraftKings points per game with Ingram out since Nov. 25 (11 games) and leads New Orleans with a 30.5% usage rate and 1.4 DraftKings points per minute with Ingram off the floor this season. Williamson has the potential for over 60 fantasy points tonight – which he has done twice in this recent stretch sans Ingram – and is projected for low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Another name that is worth attacking in GPPs is D’Angelo Russell, particularly on DraftKings, where Stokastic is slating him for single-digit ownership. As mentioned above, tonight’s date with the Pelicans presents the third highest total on the slate (233.5 points) and with Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) sidelined, Russell has surpassed 40 DraftKings points in six of his past 11 starts, with a 23.5% usage rating during this span. Russell has topped 40 DraftKings points six times in nine games with totals of at least 230.

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Value Tier

With Marvin Bagley (illness) missing his second straight game tonight, both Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren are both projecting to be chalky tonight. While the heavy ownership isn’t ideal, both Stewart and Duren are excellent value plays, and differentiating by fading Jokic up top allows for eating the chalk when it comes to cheaper options tonight. With Bagley absent Monday, the Pistons used a tight nine-man rotation and with Stewart and Duren logging 33.3 and 34.4 regulation minutes, respectively. Albeit with an overtime inflating their numbers, both Stewart and Duren finished with 38 DraftKings points. Tonight, against a Magic defense that ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, both bigs should smash value again, even in the likely event that they don’t get an overtime period. With Cade Cunningham (shin) and Bagley off the floor this season, Stewart and Duren both contribute 0.9 DraftKings points per minute. Furthermore, Stewart and Duren are producing 33 and 37 DraftKings points per game, respectively, when they play 30 minutes or more.

On the other side of this Pistons-Magic matchup, Markelle Fultz is a contrarian value play worth perusing. With a 21.9% usage rate and a team-high 28.9% assist percentage, Fultz is contributing 1 DraftKings point per minute this season. Orlando has competed in back-to-back blowouts, but tonight’s meeting with Detroit presents the smallest spread on the slate, with the Magic only favored by 1 point. Plus, this game’s total is up to 229.5 points. The Pistons rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency and in totals of at least 225 points this season, Fultz has flourished with 35 DraftKings points per game (seven games), including a pair of outings over 40 DraftKings points. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic is projecting Fultz for only around 10% ownership.

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Situations to Monitor

Trae Young (calf) is questionable tonight after tweaking his calf late in Tuesday’s loss to the Pacers. Ranking fifth in the NBA in usage rate, Young’s absence would create a huge void for the Hawks and make Dejounte Murray an elite option. Murray has provided 47.3 DraftKings points per game in the two starts he has made without Young and leads Atlanta with 1.2 DraftKings points per minute with Young off the floor, thanks to his usage increasing 4.1 percentage points to a team-high 29.2%. Bogdan Bogdanovic (rest) and Deandre Hunter (ankle) are also questionable, and if these two along with Young were to be ruled out, A.J. Griffin would be forced into a large role and be a viable punt. Griffin is averaging 26 DraftKings points per game when he plays at least 25 minutes.

As mentioned above, Brown sprained his ankle last night and could sit tonight for the Nuggets. If this ends up being the case, Bones Hyland will be a free square and good chalk to embrace. Brown has been the replacement starting point guard when Murray has been out this season, and his absence would likely insert Hyland into the first unit. With Murray and Brown off the court this season, Hyland’s usage leaps 6 percentage points to a team-high 34.2% and he scores 1.4 DraftKings points per minute. Plus, Hyland is averaging 34.8 DraftKings points per game when he plays at least 25 minutes.

Another name to keep a close eye on that most might overlook is Kyle Anderson (questionable, back). With Towns and Anderson out, the Wolves have shown a willingness to play Naz Reid more off the bench, with him logging 27.1 minutes per game in their last two. With this role, Reid has collected 33.3 DraftKings points per game. He is an elite fantasy producer, scoring 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, and he would be outstanding, unpopular value if Anderson remains sidelined. Reid has averaged 44 DraftKings points per game (five games) when he plays at least 25 minutes.

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