NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic Leads the Way on Thursday (February 23)

Thursday’s NBA action kicks off the latter portion of the regular season with a nine-game featured slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Luka Doncic.

NBA DFS Picks Today: Thursday, Feb. 23

Core Play of the Day — Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks-San Antonio Spurs

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 59.45 | FanDuel: 57.15
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 18.6% | FanDuel: 6.3%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,900 | FanDuel: $12,000

Yes, there is blowout risk in this game, with the Mavericks favored by 13 points in Dallas against a shorthanded San Antonio squad. However, the Spurs are also playing at the fifth-fastest pace, with the fifth-worst defensive efficiency in the league over their last 10 games. This is the perfect game for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to continue figuring things out as the Mavs prepare for the postseason.

Doncic is not set up to perform well in the All-Star format with his ball-dominating tendencies. He has been happy to be a secondary facilitator in these exhibitions and take a few jumpers in 20-ish minutes. Of course, the less-than-savvy gamers who continue to flock to him, like they did on Sunday, are likely to eschew him after being disappointed in his production.

Since Irving joined Dallas, he and Luka have played just 114 possessions together. In this VERY small sample size, Doncic has averaged well north of 2.0 fantasy points per minute, which while unsustainable does indicate he should continue to be a fantasy stalwart with a mid-30% usage rate and ample scoring, rebounding and assists. The risk is that if this team improves in in the win column as the two stars learn to coexist, Doncic is likely to see his minutes baseline reset around 32 to 33, which would be a 10% drop in what we have seen the last two season from the do-everything superstar.

If Doncic comes in on fewer than 1-in-5 lineups for DraftKings tournaments and less than 1-in-10 on FanDuel, he becomes an incredibly intriguing option for the savvy gamer.

Portland Trail Blazers-Sacramento Kings

Update: the Trail Blazer’s plane was postponed Wednesday due to weather concerns and they did not embark until this afternoon to Sacramento. Lillard and Grant have been ruled out for rest after the team spent nearly seven hours on the tarmac in the plane. Their absence boosts Sharpe, Eubanks, Watford and now brings Reddish into the fray as a discount dandy who suddenly has a path towards 30 minutes. Keon Johnson and Little are the biggest winners as two players who can help fill the scoring void created by Lillard’s absence.

Anfernee Simons (ankle) is out for at least the next week, and it is unlikely Jusuf Nurkic (calf) is ready to return before March, and he has missed the last seven games. Justise Winslow remains out, and just in case you forgot, Josh Hart was dealt to the New York Knicks at the trade deadline.

Damian Lillard is coming off a successful weekend where he won the NBA 3-Point Contest, and the former Weber State star had the backing of the “hometown” Utah crowd for the All-Star Game as well. In 356 minutes this season, Lillard is averaging 1.7 fantasy points per minute when Simons and Nurkic are off the court, and the Sacramento defense is like a mythical legend that is rarely seen by the human eye.

Rookie Shaedon Sharpe should get minutes in the mid- to upper-20s, and he has been solid in his last four games, averaging 26.0 minutes, 13.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.8 combined blocks and steals. Of course, he will not continue his torrid success from the field (61.8%) and behind the arc (56.3%), but his sub-$4,000 salary and eligibility at both guard spots make him a coveted option on DraftKings. On FanDuel he is $4,500 and only available as a shooting guard, so expectations are not as lofty.

Drew Eubanks and Trendon Watford are both solid options, as they will be sharing 48 minutes while filling in for Nurkic. Eubanks has the slight edge in projected minutes as well as fantasy production, but that could easily flip towards Watford in any given matchup. Both players are center-only on DraftKings, but they each have power forward eligibility on FanDuel. Though other discount dandies will appear throughout the day, keep Eubanks and Watford on your list of potential value plays heading towards lock.

The Trail Blazers still have plenty of wings, so it is hard to be too excited about Jerami Grant, Nassir Little, and newcomers Matisse Thybulle and Cam Reddish on the main slate. There is some early buzz around Reddish and Grant, though that should subside heading towards lock.

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In three games with Portland, Reddish has averaged 23.1 minutes, 11.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.3 combined blocks and steals. Though this is around 0.8 fantasy points per minute, in his time with New York he was averaging 0.7, and that is a more likely baseline with his new team.

Grant is also looking like a neutral option from a fantasy point-per-dollar perspective in most realistic scenarios. In his last seven starts, he has averaged 34.8 minutes, 17.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.1 combined blocks and steals, with exactly zero games of more than 30 fantasy points in this stretch. Caveat Emptor!

Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are both nearing their salary ceiling for this season, but that should not dissuade gamers from rolling them out in this tantalizing matchup. Though this duo appeared in the All-Star Game, they should otherwise be rested and ready for a frenetic fantasy environment.

Sabonis currently leads the league with 12.3 rebounds per game while also averaging 18.8 points, 6.9 assists, and 1.3 combined blocks and steals. He also has 45 double-doubles in 55 starts, along with half a dozen triple-doubles. Fox has produced a career-best 55.0% effective field goal rate, which contributed to him being named to the All-Star team for the first time in his career. The 25-year-old typically has spirited back-and-forth games with Lillard, and while it is no guarantee of his performance tonight, he has 43 or more fantasy points in four of their last five head-to-head battles.

The remainder of the Sacramento rotation is back to full strength, with Malik Monk available after missing the final two game before the break. That makes things crowded and limits the likelihood of any particular player reaching their upside with the frequency needed to be a viable tournament option on a nine-game slate.

Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick – Sports Betting Opportunities

Pascal Siakam is an intriguing option in the betting market, with his 5.5 over/under rebound prop. Toronto should be back at full strength tonight, with O.G. Anunoby returning after a nine-game absence due to a wrist injury and Gary Trent Jr. back after missing two games with a calf issue.

Siakam is averaging a career-best 6.1 assists per game; however, that figure has been slipping as Fred VanVleet has been healthy over the last month as compared to the beginning of the season. In his last 18 games, Siakam is averaging 5.4 assists, and while that is in line with his over/under line tonight, it is a clear drop off from his season-long results.

NBA Bet Pro has Siakam projected for 4.93 assists and a 62% win probability that he fails to reach this milestone. BetMGM currently has this wager available at -135 on the under, giving it a decent 7% expected ROI.

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Golden State Warriors-Los Angeles Lakers

This matchup is one of three on Thursday’s docket that boasts a projected total of 240 or higher. Stephen Curry remains out with a shoulder issue and a nebulous return date that is two weeks out at the minimum. Andrew Wiggins is also away from the team attending to a personal matter, so things will once again be wide open from a fantasy perspective for several secondary Warriors.

In the last five games without Curry, Jordan Poole has stepped in to fill most of the vacated usage. In this stretch, he is averaging 32.8 minutes and 19.0 field goal attempts with a 48.4% conversion rate. This includes a healthy 9.6 from beyond the arc with a 43.8% success rate. All told, this has worked out to 26.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 0.6 combined blocks and steals. Though Poole is very scoring dependent for his fantasy upside, the Lakers have a mediocre defense at best and are playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games.

Klay Thompson last played on Feb. 14, which was also a rare back-to-back game. Though he played “just” 28 minutes, that was an important milestone towards his continued recovery from two catastrophic leg injuries over the last three years. In three of the four games heading into that matchup, he had 40 or more fantasy points, including two forays over the 50-fantasy-point plateau.

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Draymond Green continues to chug along, and the nine-day layoff should have him with a little pep in his step. On the full slate, Green is a neutral option, but he is elevated to secondary status on the late slate and also in any game set where the approach is to look for some added synergy by taking a player or two from each side of this matchup. Donte DiVincenzo receives a similar assessment as Green.

Kevon Looney stands out on FanDuel, where he has power forward eligibility, and he has topped 30 fantasy points in his last three appearances, including back-to-back double-doubles. Centers are plentiful tonight, so the multi-position eligibility is crucial. Lastly, Ty Jerome is a late-slate discount dandy with a realistic chance at 20 minutes in a fantasy-friendly matchup. Similarly, Anthony Lamb at the near minimum salary where he is power forward eligible, could be a player to unlock the late slate.

Anthony Davis posted a pair of 50-fantasy-point performances heading into the break, including one with and one without LeBron James. Team LeBron was dealt the first All-Star Game loss with James as captain on Sunday, though he did not play in the second half after suffering a minor hand injury. All signs indicate James is a full go tonight, making him a strong option against a lackadaisical Golden State defense. D’Angelo Russell wanders into the mix for the late slate and would get a boost in the unexpected event one of the Lakers superstars is not able to take the court tonight.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today

Even coming out of the break, there are a plethora of injured players and a few unresolved situations. Be sure to get all the latest analysis and information by tuning in to the Stokastic Live Deeper Dive and Before Lock shows at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, courtesy of No House Advantage.

Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].