NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

On behalf of NBA DFS players everywhere, I’d like to say thank you very much, Aaron Gordon. With way too much of the Magic power forward in my lineups last night, the rest of the story isn’t worth telling. Here’s hoping things went better for the rest of you, but we can’t win them all. Thursday brings a much more realistic slate to the table with a healthy four-gamer that has some interesting spots on the board. The Suns are largely in play in similar circumstances to what they looked like last night, assuming Devin Booker is out again. We won’t do the full breakdown, but check back to last night’s article and adjust for salary changes. With a four-game slate, we’ll try to dip into the value range or find some stars who are going under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimal lineups in DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contest simulations. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Damian Lillard – Portland Trail Blazers

DraftKings – $10,600 – PG / FanDuel – $9,700 – PG

We covered Lillard and his opportunity in this space very recently, so we’re going for the short-short version. Until the return of C.J. McCollum, Lillard is going to be a major fantasy option on most slates. Even with the jump in price on DraftKings, he ranks fifth on the slate with a 30.6% optimal-lineup rate. He has a 23.2% boom score probability and a median projection of 55, and the public is not getting to him enough. In FanDuel NBA contests, Lillard looks even better with a salary that is still below the $10,000 mark. His optimal-lineup rate is the highest on the slate at 57.5% on the site where we must roster two point guards. He will be popular but is still pulling a 2.0 leverage score, along with his 43.7% boom score probability. I want all the Lillard I can get in FanDuel lineups tonight.

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Luke Kennard – Los Angeles Clippers

DraftKings – $6,500 – SG/SF / FanDuel – $5,500 – SG

Here is another player that we just covered in another unchanged situation. With the ongoing absence of stars Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverley from the Clippers rotation, there will be extended minutes and usage available for players like Kennard. On Tuesday he saw 28 minutes coming off the bench and rewarded those who got to him as a low-owned option among NBA DFS picks on a small slate, scoring 13 real-life points and adding 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 4 steals.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Kennard slots into a busy shooting guard spot and is not overly expensive. He lands in 39.9% of optimal lineups but is drawing a 10.6 leverage score, meaning not enough of the public is getting to him. This is a base play that fits into numerous constructions, not a play we expect to go wild, but he still carries a 17.1 boom-score probability. On DraftKings, the multi-position eligibility of other options hurts Kennard. He appears in just 13.9% of optimal lineups while providing just a 3.9% boom score probability on his much higher salary. I would play Kennard on FanDuel and look to get different in the spot on DraftKings.

Gary Trent Jr. – Portland Trail Blazers

DraftKings – $5,000 – SG/SF / FanDuel – $4,800 – SG

Another beneficiary of the chaos in Portland’s current rotation, Trent should see significant run tonight with a 30-minute projection from Awesemo. Robert Covington will also miss this game, while Derrick Jones and Rodney Hood are both questionable. There could be fairly significant opportunity for Trent if those two do not play, though Awesemo’s current projections have them in. Trent will likely start alongside Jones in that case. That was the situation on Monday when Trent started and played 41 minutes in a 3-point loss. He scored 22 real-life points, adding just 1 rebound and 2 steals to the peripherals. Trent relied on scoring and his 4-for-9 shooting from 3 to create fantasy points. At the price and numbers, I think we can get away with him again.

The primary issue with the play is that Trent has produced just 0.63 fantasy points per minute this season. He is almost entirely reliant on scoring, with just a 6.2% assist rate and 5.9% rebound rate for his career, putting him in a production hole after a few missed shots to start a night. His true shooting percentage is down from 58.7% last season to a league-average 56.4% so far this year, though he is shooting 42.5% from beyond the arc. Trent is interesting when the 3’s are falling.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Trent has a 17.5% optimal-lineup rate and is drawing a strong positive leverage score of 6.2. His boom score probability is low at just 5.2%, however, and he is pricey on the site for the expected upside. Still, I think it would be easy enough to get above the public exposure, which is only slightly over 10%.

On FanDuel Trent looks like a strong option as an inexpensive shooting guard. He appears in 23.0% of optimal lineups in FanDuel NBA contest simulations and will be in just 16.2% of public lineups as of the afternoon. Trent is less expensive on the blue site, where his boom score probability goes up to 10.7%. Getting him at strong positive leverage (6.8) is a boon, and we need to find value that is less popular but still likely to put us on the optimal construction paths. Trent looks like a strong candidate for that role among our mid-range NBA DFS picks tonight.

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Blake Griffin – Detroit Pistons

DraftKings – $5,900 – PF / FanDuel – $5,500 – PF

Still toiling in the Motor City, Griffin is still an option at the right price for NBA DFS tournaments. He looks to be settling into the right range to put him in play for us tonight as he returns to the team after resting the first leg of a back-to-back.

Griffin has produced 0.83 fantasy points per minute this season, down from last year’s 0.92 rate and dangerously close to irrelevance. The production has been largely reflected in the forward’s price on both sites, however, which is creating some limited opportunity around him. The public is reluctant to roster Griffin in large exposures, and he is drawing positive leverage on both sites.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Griffin has an 18.9% optimal-lineup rate and a 5.0 leverage score, and he qualifies at the power forward and center spots. Among all eligible forwards and centers, Griffin lands 10th by optimal-lineup rate and third by leverage score. Filtering down to traditional big men at the power forward and center spot — eliminating some of the oddball qualified forwards who are actually point guards — Griffin offers the best leverage score on the slate and climbs to sixth by optimal-lineup rate. With just a 9.2% boom score probability and public exposure below 15%, there is no reason to go wild with shares, but we can easily get above the field on what looks like an acceptable differentiation play from the mid-range.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Griffin looks like a quality mix and match option who will help keep lineups on different construction paths while maintaining a quality projection and optimal trajectory. While he is not among the overall slate leaders, his optimal-lineup rate of 19.7% is still a significant chance. Both that rate and his boom score probability rank Griffin sixth among power forward on the blue site tonight. He provides the best leverage score of that group, and the difference between his rates and those of the immediate competition in both categories is relatively negligible. I can get to Griffin more than the field is projected for tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.