NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

Well, last night was a bit of a debacle. With a game canceling post-lock and outside of any range in which there would be available late-swapping options, the entire slate crumbled to pieces in our hands. It was nice to see both sites coming through for their users by providing a refunded amount to be determined from their entry fees, though the circumstances were well beyond the control of NBA DFS websites as well. The NBA needs to get a handle on their overall plans going forward, or we will continue to see this chaos throughout the season. Tonight’s slate has six games on it at this point in the day. We could drop the Pistons game at any time, though they were the infected team in last night’s cancellation, so stay tuned. There is an available pivot game at the same time on this slate at least, so it will not be as tragic if the game does not play, but be sure to have a plan. Assuming a six-game Tuesday slate, we’ll mostly focus on the key plays, but we’ll range into a bit more sneaky territory as well if the option presents itself. We’re always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimal lineups in DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contest simulations. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

A quick note on today’s boom/bust tool: We are working to rectify the optimal-lineup rates for the FanDuel side. For our purposes here, I consulted my own on-target rates in place of the optimal-lineup rate as a double-check, though I am not citing those numbers here.

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Nikola Vucevic – Orlando Magic

DraftKings – $8,200 – C / FanDuel – $8,800 – C

The Civil War battlefield triage hospital that is the Magic training room recently got another victim, with power forward Aaron Gordon coming up with a sprained ankle that will keep him out for the next 4-6 weeks. Removing a major piece from the Magic’s frontcourt is going to only push up the responsibilities and utilization of Vucevic. Without Gordon on the court, Vucevic’s usage climbs from 27.8% to 31.6% and his fantasy production climbs from 1.33 fantasy points per minute to 1.35.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Vucevic leads the slate with a 36.7% optimal-lineup rate and carries a monster 45.3% boom-score probability on what is not a cheap salary, though it is low for him and for the opportunity. Vucevic looks like an excellent building block for tonight’s slate. He is not too popular for our purposes, and the -3.2 leverage score just tells me I need more shares to get above the field tonight, which is definitely where I want to be on a play this strong.

On FanDuel, Vucevic looks equally strong. He is more expensive, but it hardly matters on the site; he carries a 42.7% boom-score probability, making him something of a no-brainer play at the singular-center spot on a night relatively slim on options at the position. Vucevic will be popular, pulling in a 41.7% public exposure share, but the play is another one for which I think we want to get well above the field given the strong optimal-lineup rate and the immense upside at a make-or-break position.

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Eric Paschall – Golden State Warriors

DraftKings – $3,500 – SF/PF / FanDuel – $3,500 – PF

Taking a plunge into the value end of the pool at the power forward spot, we find Paschall, who should see increased opportunity in the Warriors rotation tonight. Rookie big man James Wiseman will miss the next week or more with a wrist injury, and other frontcourt pieces are banged up, Paschall included — he is dealing with back soreness but is listed as probable — which should create a minutes and usage vacuum to be filled. Assuming Paschall dresses for this one, he is the more likely candidate for that role, for which he is competing primarily with Kevon Looney.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Paschall comes in at the minimum salary, carrying a 27.9% boom-score probability. It should not take much for him to pay off the salary tonight with his 0.92 fantasy points per minute, and the public has taken notice. Paschall will be owned by about a third of the field, but he has a high-quality optimal-lineup rate and a leverage score that keeps him in play. As a fundamental value building block for this slate, I will expect to have an absolute ton of Paschall tonight.

In DraftKings NBA contests, the forward slots into either the power forward or small forward spot, adding to the appeal. He is at just $3,500 on this site as well, bringing him to a 22.5% boom-score probability and a 33.6% optimal-lineup rate. Paschall will be owned by the DraftKings public as well, but at the extreme price savings, we can certainly muscle up on his -2.0 leverage score and get to a much wider swath of shares.

Anfernee Simons – Portland Trailblazers

DraftKings – $4,300 – PG/SG / FanDuel – $3,800 – PG

Simons has been thrust into a more prominent role for the team in the absence of starting shooting guard C.J. McCollum. Over the team’s last six games since McCollum was injured, Simons has averaged 25.6 minutes and 14.2 real-life points per game. He sees significant run throughout the game despite not starting, and he has closed several games alongside star point guard Damian Lillard.

Simons comes into the DraftKings NBA slate with just a $4,300 price tag, making him a strong option at the guard spot. He carries a 17.7% optimal-lineup rate that ranks 10th overall on the slate and third among eligible point guards, the other two of which cost significantly more. Simons has a 10.5% boom-score probability; we are not looking at a monster raw point total expectation with this play, but for the price he is very likely to be a required piece of the puzzle. Plus, he will be under-owned. At this point in the day, Simons is tracking for a 4.2 leverage score. We can easily get beyond the field on the useful piece without breaking our backs if he does not make the numbers we need.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Simons costs even less, coming in with a $3,800 price tag as one of the top value options on the entire slate. His 0.80 fantasy points per minute producer should allow him to pay off that price, and he carries a 16.8% boom-score probability but will be owned by less than 15% of the public. This seems to be short-sighted, and Simons is a frequent click for me in early constructions. Building him into one of two point guard spots creates a significant number of options and quality pathways for constructions that would not otherwise exist for us on this slate.

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Jaylen Brown – Boston Celtics

DraftKings – $7,800 – SF / FanDuel – $8,700 – SF

Now in his fifth year in the NBA, Brown appears to have truly taken a leap forward, putting up a career-high (by nearly 7 points per game) scoring mark of 27.1 points per game in his 33.1 minutes. Brown has produced with a .623 true shooting percentage, making 44.3% of his attempts from behind the 3-point arc. The scoring bonanza has led to Brown producing 1.29 fantasy points per minute this season, up dramatically from his 0.98 per minute last year.

Part of the production uptick can be attributed to health. Brown has reliably been on the court for a Celtics team for which pretty much no one else has managed that feat. Still, regardless of who he is playing with, Brown is producing. Over the Celtics last three games, since the return of fellow star Jayson Tatum, Brown has averaged 34.6 minutes and 26.0 points per game on 29.3% usage.

Brown lands on the DraftKings slate with a reduced price and primed for production. He carries a 28.8% boom-score probability that is third overall on the slate, and his 24% optimal-lineup rate ranks him fourth. Brown is firmly in play for the public, but his -4.0 leverage score is truly nothing to worry about. We can get beyond the projected public exposure without taking on too much weight, though being around the field would be fine on a play like this as well.

On FanDuel Brown is significantly more expensive, which lowers both his optimal-lineup rate and his boom-score probability. He comes in with just a 20.4% chance at posting a ceiling score for us, which is a quality mark that ranks him third at the small forward spot behind Jerami Grant and Justin Holiday, two players to whom he compares favorably as by far the most talented. Brown will be owned comparably to Holiday, though he costs over $4,000 more. This will come down to a salary-based decision for me in most instances. If I can figure out — or Fantasy Cruncher can find — pathways to get Brown into my lineups without sacrificing upside at other positions and deviating too far from the optimal construction paths, I want to make it happen.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.