NBA DFS Picks: Duane Washington Jr. the Value Play, Beware Late News

Several value spots pop up for tonight’s eight-game NBA DFS slate. A number of these spots have drawn increasingly high ownership relative to their chance of hitting. Others have lost some steam, which might render them even stronger NBA DFS picks tonight.

Anything can change in an instant with the NBA news cycle, so be sure to check Stokastic’s starting lineups page to get the current makeup of the rosters as lock approaches. As of 4 p.m. ET, there are some strong plays in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool and one clear fade according to our NBA DFS projections.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: Duane Washington Jr. $4,600 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel

63.71.% DraftKings Boom/32.5% FanDuel Boom

There is no clearer play on DraftKings tonight than Duane Washington Jr. Washington’s boom percentage stands 14% above our next highest projected player (and also a strong play), Dario Saric. Our current ownership projections have Washington projected for 64.8% ownership on DraftKings, making him optimal 53.6% of the time. That’s poor leverage, but his price and boom opportunity make him a tough fade. As the slate currently stands, you’ll want to have a healthy amount of exposure to him.

Washington rates as a weaker play on FanDuel but remains worthy of consideration in any DFS format. His uninspiring 32.5% boom rate is mitigated by his 30.4% optimal rate relative to 48.95% ownership. Those numbers make it pretty hard to get above the field, and there are opportunity costs to rostering Washington because he is only eligible at shooting guard on FanDuel.

NBA DFS players must cautiously monitor Washington’s ownership and optimal percentages throughout the day as news breaks. The Phoenix Suns’ stars, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton, were just ruled out, opening tons of value in their lineup. Phoenix’s value plays may stand out, but if they pick up enough ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, it could pull from Washington’s value. However, his opportunity to put up points won’t change, and he might become a pivot or complement piece as lock approaches.

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NBA DFS Play: Dario Saric $3,500 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel

49.31% DraftKings Boom/39.98% FanDuel Boom

Dario Saric is the first name that shows up on the Boom Bust tool for Phoenix. With Ayton and so many other Suns off the court, Saric should get all the minutes that he can handle. Saric logged 26 minutes on Sunday against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he stood out in last night’s win over Golden State by racking up 19 points, nine rebounds and seven assists. The win came against a much healthier Warriors squad that had Stephen Curry back in the starting lineup.

There’s no reason to think that Saric won’t get the same kind of run tonight against the Denver Nuggets. He sports a 32.3% optimal rate on DraftKings compared to 35.8% ownership. His PF/C eligibility and price allow him to fit into many builds. He grades out as a slightly weaker play on FanDuel but remains a solid option. Saric is only useable at PF at FanDuel and comes in at 40.4% optimal relative to his 50.8% ownership.

Beware of any late news before and after lock with regards to this Phoenix lineup. Saric started alongside Bismack Biyombo last night. However, head coach Monty Williams could change things up, so someone like Jock Landale could get the starting nod or much of the run. All three of those players project strongly in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust tool, but the differences in projection might change depending on the ebb and flow of the NBA news cycle.

NBA DFS Play: Rudy Gobert $7,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel

48.09% DraftKings Boom/46.29% FanDuel Boom

Neither DraftKings nor FanDuel have Rudy Gobert priced effeciently. The veteran center looks particularly good on FanDuel, where he comes in with the highest boom score on the board at 46.29% His optimal rate on FanDuel is 20.2%, while his ownership percentage is 24.4%. Given how many raw points Gobert should produce, it could be worth eating some of the -4% leverage. He rates similarly on DraftKings, with a 32.8% optimal rate that is slightly higher than his 34% ownership.

Gobert presents a tougher decision on DraftKings because players like Saric, Biyombo, Landale and Nerlens Noel are all value options at center. That opportunity cost has kept Gobert’s ownership percentage down and his leverage score close to an even -1.2%.

NBA DFS Fade: Alex Caruso $3,400 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel

22.17% DraftKings Boom/17.12% FanDuel Boom

At the moment, Alex Caruso is projected for 13.9% ownership on DraftKings and 28% on FanDuel. Those rostership numbers are exorbitant relative to his 9.4% and 21% optimal percentages. Caruso does have modest boom scores that make him useable, but his minutes and numbers are not expected to soar, even with DeMar DeRozan out with a quad injury. Caruso is a clear NBA DFS fade tonight.

The irony of playing the leverage game is that as value opens up — and sometimes gets steamed before lock — Caruso’s ownership could go down. That would make him worth some flyers in a few rosters. Unfortunately, the biggest drawback to using him is that the Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards tip off at 7 p.m. ET, locking well before starting lineups for the Phoenix Suns or other potential value spots are announced.

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