NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer: Chalky Bulls Stack Worth Gamble?

On the schedule for Wednesday is an eight-game slate. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, NBA DFS players can examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players to help build lineups capable of shooting to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS picks for leverage on Wednesday.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 11

High-End Tier

Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to gain the most attention among the studs tonight, projecting to be over 20% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. While he is competing in the third highest total on the slate against the Hawks (236 points), there is merit to fading Giannis tonight, especially with a plethora of other appealing high-end options to choose from for this eight-game slate. Monday was the first time Jrue Holiday started and saw a full workload since Christmas day, and his presence has a notable impact on Antetokounmpo. In the win over the Knicks, he finished with only 46 DraftKings points in 36.3 minutes. With Holiday on the floor this season, Antetokounmpo’s assist rate has plummeted 7.9 percentage points and his fantasy production has dipped from 1.7 to 1.6 DraftKings points per minute. Plus, Antetokounmpo has struggled against this Atlanta squad this season, averaging 48.5 DraftKings points per game in three matchups.

At essentially the same cost and projected for far less ownership in Stokastic’s projections, Nikola Jokic is a sharp pivot off Antetokounmpo. He gets the luxury of competing on his home floor – where has been nearly 10 DraftKings points per game better than when on the road this season – and faces a beat-up Suns team that is on the second leg of a back-to-back. Phoenix only had nine players available last night and Denver’s implied team total is the fourth highest on the slate tonight (119.25 points). Jokic is averaging a monster 68 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 home games with team totals of at least 115.

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Producing 49.4 DraftKings points per game in his first four starts back from an absence due to a hip injury, Stokastic is projecting Jalen Brunson to be a top-three most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, his success has been a product of R.J. Barrett (questionable, finger) missing all of these games, and with Barrett expected to return tonight, Brunson is an easy fade with the heavy ownership. With Barrett on the floor, Brunson’s usage drops 1.8 percentage points and he provides 1.1 DraftKings points per minute, compared to 1.3 with Barrett off. Furthermore, Brunson has recorded less than 40 DraftKings points in six of his past 10 starts with Barrett active.

While likely to be popular, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic are better options in this price range, with DeMar DeRozan (hip) doubtful. He has yet to miss a game this season, but with DeRozan off the floor, LaVine’s usage rises 3.6 percentage points to 31.7% and he scores 1.2 DraftKings points, while Vucevic’s fantasy production jumps from 1.1 to a team-best 1.4 DraftKings points per minute, thanks to increases to both his assist and rebound rates. The Bulls face a Wizards defense that ranks dead last in efficiency across their last three games, and rostering both Vucevic and LaVine in the same lineup tonight is a totally viable strategy.

Dejounte Murray is also good chalk to embrace with Trae Young (illness) out, regardless of this difficult matchup against the Bucks, who rank third in defensive efficiency. Including a near triple-double of 59 DraftKings points against the same Milwaukee team he faces tonight, Murray is supplying 54 DraftKings points per game with Young inactive this season (three games). Murray’s usage and assist rates jump 3.1 and 9.9 percentage points, respectively, with Young off the floor, translating into 1.2 DraftKings points per minute.

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Value Tier

The Timberwolves are expected to be a popular team tonight, with them facing the Pistons, who rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency. According to Stokastic’s projections, Rudy Gobert is slated to be the most owned player on the slate. Specifically, his ownership projection is near 50% for DraftKings. While Gobert is projecting as a great value, he has often failed this season and is rating as a very poor play in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. He has scored less than 35 DraftKings points in seven of his past 10 starts and was a total disaster when these clubs just met on New Year’s Eve, finishing with only 24 DraftKings points. With him position stacked alongside appealing options tonight, fading an uber-chalky Gobert makes sense from a contrarian perspective.

Kyle Anderson is also expected to be popular tonight – hovering around 25% expected ownership for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections – but he is underpriced for his current role and is a player to go overweight on. Anderson’s role has been consistent since returning from a back injury that cost him five games, logging 32 minutes per game in his last five starts, resulting in 30.1 DraftKings points per game. Anderson scores 0.9 DraftKings points per minute this season and is amassing 30 DraftKings points per game when he has logged a minimum of 25 minutes.

With Young unavailable tonight, De’Andre Hunter is a great forward value that could get slightly overlooked, given the size of this slate. Clint Capela (calf) is also out, and with both him and Young off the court this season, Hunter’s usage has leaped 6.5 percentage points to 26.9%, which ties Murray for the highest on the team for this situation.

Situations to Monitor

On top of Bradley Beal (hamstring) being ruled out, Kristaps Porzingis (rib) and Daniel Gafford (ankle) are both questionable for the Wizards tonight. If Porzingis sits, Kyle Kuzma will become a terrific spend that would see an even further boost if Gafford were also inactive. In one of the two starts he has made without both Beal and Porzingis this season, Kuzma erupted for a season-high 62.75 DraftKings points in brutal spot against the Mavericks, who rank dead last in pace. With both Beal and Porzingis off the court this season, Kuzma’s usage jumps 3.3 percentage points to a team-high 30.3%. If Gafford and Porzingis both miss this game, Rui Hachimura would likely play 30-plus minutes and also have to be considered. This season, he provides 0.9 DraftKings points per minute and 26 DraftKings points per game when given a role of at least 25 minutes (eight games).

As noted above, the Suns are playing their second game in two nights and were down to only nine bodies last night, most notably with Chris Paul (hip), Deandre Ayton (ankle) and Landry Shamet (hip) inactive, on top of Devin Booker (groin), who doesn’t have a timeline for a return. The Suns have yet to release their injury report at the time of writing, but they were quick to rule out Paul and Ayton yesterday, while Shamet’s status was decided close to tipoff. It is very possible that both Paul and Ayton will sit again tonight, which would make the Suns the best source of value for this slate. Mikal Bridges, Dario Saric and Duane Washington Jr. would be thrusted into huge roles and be unavoidable value plays. With the Suns understaffed last night, Bridges, Saric and Washington started and finished with 52.75, 41.25 and 32.3 DraftKings points, respectively. Notably, with Booker, Paul and Ayton off the court this season, Washington leads Phoenix with a 34.2% usage rate and 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.

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The Celtics have listed Marcus Smart (knee) and Robert Williams (injury management) as questionable. If Smart is out, Malcolm Brogdon would be a value worth attacking in GPPs that would likely get overlooked after disappointing with Smart unavailable Monday. Before this contest, Brogdon generated 37.5 DraftKings points per game in the previous two Smart missed. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown would also see boosts and be viable spends. With Smart off the floor this season, Tatum and Brown both see slight upgrades to their usage rates, resulting in 1.4 and 1.3 DraftKings points per minute, respectively.

In the frontcourt for Boston, if Williams is out, Al Horford will be an outstanding value for GPPs. With Williams inactive on Dec. 23, Horford was the primary beneficiary, posting a season-high 47.75 DraftKings points in 36.2 minutes against the Timberwolves, which is the most playing time he has seen this season in a game that hasn’t gone to overtime.

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