NBA DFS Projections Today: Kawhi Leonard Getting No Love (February 6)

There is plenty of value on this eight-game Monday night DraftKings slate, as none of the players involved in the trade heard around this flat earth are available yet and some key players are out with injuries. More value may yet open up, which is always the case in NBA DFS, but particularly with the trade deadline looming this week.

Be sure to pay attention to news and check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to hear great analysis of how the news changes the slate. And as always, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are great resources to help make DraftKings lineups that project well and offer some leverage points on the field.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Feb. 6

High-End Tier

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,100) is the highest-projected player on the entire slate by more than 8 fantasy points. He’s projected for 26% ownership currently, a 26% chance of booming and an 18% chance of being optimal, according to the Stokastic NBA DFS projections. His ownership and optimal rate are likely to increase if more value opens up.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,700) has a solid positive leverage score. Leonard is projected for just 4% ownership with an 11% chance of hitting his boom score and an 8% chance of being optimal.

Domantas Sabonis ($10,500) has a great matchup against the Rockets, who have the third-worst defensive rating in the league. Sabonis is projected for 10% ownership, an 18% chance of booming and a 9% chance of being optimal.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700) faces a Warriors team that plays at the fastest pace in the league. He’s also a great bring-back for those playing a few of the nice values from the Warriors. Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 4% ownership, a 10% chance of booming and a 6% chance of being optimal.

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Mid-Tier

Jordan Poole ($6,200) is an immediate beneficiary of Stephen Curry’s absence, and he’s one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the board tonight. Poole is projected for 52% ownership, a 42% chance of hitting his boom score and a 36% chance of making the optimal lineup. Though Poole is the top value, it’s worth noting that Curry leaves big shoes to fill, and several Warriors have great value scores as a result. All of Jonathan Kuminga ($3,700), Andrew Wiggins ($5,800), Klay Thompson ($7,000), Draymond Green ($6,400), Kevon Looney ($4,700) and Donte DiVincenzo ($5,100) are also currently among the top 27 values of the day.

Edmond Sumner ($4,500) is the biggest short-term beneficiary of the Kyrie Irving trade. Sumner is projected for 31% ownership, a 29% chance of booming and a 26% chance of being optimal. Cameron Thomas ($5,000) also benefits and may be under-owned, as he is projected for just 19% ownership, a 30% chance of booming and a 25% chance of being optimal.

Jakob Poeltl ($5,900) has seen his usage and fantasy points per minute go up significantly in a small sample size without Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan, Romeo Langford or Devin Vassell on the floor. Poeltl is projected for 14% ownership, a 23% chance of booming and a 16% chance of being optimal.

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Value Tier

Jaden Hardy ($3,400) has nice short-term value with Luka Doncic out and Irving not yet available to join the Mavericks. Hardy is projected for 47% ownership, a 46% chance of booming and a 37% chance of being optimal.

Jaylin Williams ($3,100) should get some nice run for the Thunder tonight. The team will be without Ousmane Dieng, who played 22 minutes in the most recent game but has been assigned to the G-League. Williams is projected for just 5% ownership, a 9% chance of booming and a 5% chance of being optimal.

These are just some of the top plays of the slate in terms of projection, value and leverage. Things can change in a hurry on an NBA slate, though, so remember to track the news throughout the day and take advantage of potential late-swap opportunities.

Author

Neil Orfield

Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.