NBA Fantasy: DraftKings + FanDuel Projections & High-Upside Plays 3/23

In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.

*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | March 23

NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates

James Harden vs. Trail Blazers: $11,000 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel

41.5% DraftKings Boom/41.6% FanDuel Boom

Harden is currently listed as questionable, so that’s a news item we definitely need to keep an eye on. As long as he plays, he’s easily my top overall play on the slate. Kevin Durant remains out because of his hamstring issue, and Kyrie Irving is away from the Nets due to a family issue. If Harden is active, he is going to have to do everything for the Nets. When these two stars are off the court, Harden has a 35.4% usage rate and scores over 60 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. I am hoping he will carry the questionable tag into lock which would lower his ownership a bit.

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Bruce Brown vs. Trail Blazers: $4,200 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel

32.7% DraftKings Boom/45.2% FanDuel Boom

Brown rates out as the top value play on both FanDuel and DraftKings per the Boom vs. Bust tool. Nobody else priced under $5,000 comes remotely close as of noon. Brown isn’t an elite per-minute fantasy producer, but this isn’t a massive deal when so many minutes are up for grabs. With Irving out in addition to Durant, Brown figures to play over 30 minutes, which is more than enough to give him upside at his cheap salary. In the event that Harden also ends up sitting, Brown might have to lead the Nets in usage.

Damian Lillard vs. Nets: $10,000 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel

17.5% DraftKings Boom/30.6% FanDuel Boom

Lillard is back to a more reasonable price tag. His salary is down about $700 on both sites from where he was at a week ago. This was inevitable with C.J. McCollum returning and taking usage and playmaking duties away from Lillard. Not only does he rate out as a good option to pay up for, Lillard also correlates really nicely with the Nets players I listed above. The 232 total for this game is by far the highest of the night, and there is added upside by targeting both sides of the game. If Harden does end up sitting, I’ll be changing all of my shares of Harden into Lillard.

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NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates

Jeff Green vs. Trail Blazers: $4,300 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel

68.3% DraftKings Bust/66.1% FanDuel Bust

Not every play in the Nets – Trail Blazers game looks great to me. Green looks like he will go wildly over-owned tonight. On DraftKings Green is currently projected for 22.7% ownership with just an 8% chance of landing in the optimal lineup. The problem here is playing time. Even though Irving’s absence opens up additional usage, it’s unclear how many minutes Green will play. Brooklyn is fairly deep in the frontcourt now that Blake Griffin is there to soak up some minutes. This comes in addition to DeAndre Jordan and Nicolas Claxton still in the mix to get minutes.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.