Welcome to Stokastic’s Underdog Fantasy NFL pick’em predictions for Nov. 16. The Cincinnati Bengals will visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football in an AFC North battle. The 5-4 Bengals are 3.5-point underdogs to the 7-3 Ravens with a 46 total that opened at 44.5. We finally have a good Thursday Night Football game to watch! Let’s get to the picks.
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Underdog NFL Fantasy Pick’em Predictions (November 16)
Ja’Marr Chase H/L 79.5 Receiving Yards
Ja’Marr Chase had just 70 total yards after his first two games but since then he’s turned it around with Joe Burrow playing much better. He’s totaled 80 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven games and is averaging 91.2 receiving yards per game. He’s first on the Bengals in targets and has the second most in the NFL with 96. Tee Higgins is still out for the Bengals giving Burrow even more reason to target Chase. The matchup isn’t great, as the Ravens rank second in pass coverage, but the volume and the talent are there. We saw Amari Cooper go for 98 yards last week against this same defense.
Stokastic’s NFL Bet Pro tool has Chase projected for 90.6 receiving yards and a 54% win percentage on higher. Chase gets to 80 yards tonight, let’s go higher!
Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Ja’Marr Chase Higher Than 79.5 Receiving Yards
Joe Burrow H/L 37.5 Passing Attempts
Joe Burrow finds himself in a tough matchup against the best defense in the NFL as the Ravens allow just 15.7 points per game. However, we saw them give up 33 points to the Browns last week and with this being a division game these teams know each other well. Running the ball with Joe Mixon sounds nice but this is a pass first team and that’s what the Bengals are going to do tonight.
The Ravens have allowed the most passing attempts to opposing quarterbacks in the NFL while Burrow ranks third in passing attempts. He had 42 and 41 in the last two matchups with Baltimore and most operators are heavy on more than 37.5 attempts.
Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Joe Burrow Higher Than 37.5 Passing Attempts
Mark Andrews H/L 58.5 Receiving Yards
Mark Andrews is an elite pass catcher. He ranks fifth in targets with 58 and third with 12.1 yards per reception for all tight ends. Not only does Andrews have the volume but he’s in a favorable matchup against a Bengals defense that has allowed the fourth most receiving yards to tight ends. Andrews’ targets for his last three meetings with the Bengals were 8, 10, and 10, and according to Pro Football Focus, he has a 21% advantage over his expected coverage tonight. He’s averaging 57.9 receiving yards per game but with this favorable matchup, he goes higher tonight.
Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Mark Andrews Higher than 58.5 Receiving Yards
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