Tuesday’s MLB DFS main slate offers up plenty of value options. Let’s dive into each game and spotlight the players to target for daily fantasy lineups. Here are some of the best MLB DFS value picks for Tuesday, May 9.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | May 9
Oakland Athletics (Drew Rucinski) at New York Yankees (Clarke Schmidt)
Schmidt is inexpensive with good strikeout stuff in a favorable matchup. He projects as the best value SP2 option. Rucinski has struggled in a very limited sample since returning from the KBO and isn’t likely to get a lot better. Aaron Judge is back tonight for the Yankees, making the stack more formidable.
Rizzo and/or Bauers have a good chance of taking advantage of the short porch in right against a pitcher that doesn’t miss bats. Oakland is kind of interesting in tournaments for a team that only has a 3-run implied total. Schmidt is likely to be the better side of this matchup, but he has had power issues this season, and it is a park upgrade for the A’s. The group of Noda, Rooker, Bleday and Langeliers is a sneaky high-upside option in the middle of the order.
Boston Red Sox (Nick Pivetta) at Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton)
Tough to get much of either pitcher in relatively difficult matchups. The Braves look like the better team offensively with a 5.5 implied run total. Pivetta has decent strikeout stuff but gives up power to both sides of the plate. It also looks like a warm evening in Atlanta. Acuna, Olson, Riley and Murphy are all strong one-offs, and we can definitely include some cheaper guys from the bottom of the order to round out stacks.
Chicago White Sox (Lucas Giolito) at Kansas City Royals (Jordan Lyles)
There are some weather concerns in this game we need to keep an eye on. Giolito is projected to be the most under-owned of the top-six pitchers in top-two percentage in the Top Pitchers Tool. He isn’t “safe,” but neither are most pitchers today. The White Sox should be one of the most popular stacks tonight against Lyles. While I like Giolito’s GPP ownership, we also shouldn’t ignore the top of Kansas City’s lineup as Witt, Pasquantino and Perez are always strong plays at their respective positions, and Giolito has dropped off from his peak a few years ago.
San Diego Padres (Michael Wacha) at Minnesota Twins (Louie Varland)
Neither pitcher is terrible, but they both have tough matchups and have had issues with power. They’ve also both struggled with same-handed power, so don’t shy away from righties if you’re stacking. That’s not to say we shouldn’t play lefties, but we can also feel good about guys like Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Correa and Buxton as MLB DFS value picks.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Noah Syndergaard) at Milwaukee Brewers (Eric Lauer)
I’m not interested in either pitcher, but I am definitely interested in the offenses. The Dodgers are always one of the highest-upside stacks and are facing a middle-of-the-road pitcher in Eric Lauer. Syndergaard doesn’t strike hitters out like he used to, so the Brewers should be able to put the ball in play in a favorable park for hitters. Syndergaard has already allowed nine stolen bases in about 31 innings this season so that adds upside to the Brewers as well.
Louis Cardinals (Jack Flaherty) at Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
Two decent pitchers facing two decent offenses. Nothing from this game really stands out, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of it show up here and there in tournament lineups at modest ownership.
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Houston Astros (Framber Valdez) at Los Angeles Angels (Shohei Ohtani)
This one is likely to be a pitcher’s duel. Ohtani is the much more appealing DFS pitcher. His strikeout percentage since the start of last season is about 10 points higher than Valdez’s, and Ohtani isn’t that much more expensive. Valdez is somewhat interesting in GPPs since he’s at an awkward price point between Ohtani and everyone else. Most likely, though, I’ll stick with Ohtani where I pay up and then save money from Valdez in the lineups that I can’t afford Ohtani.
Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
This game is fascinating to me in GPPs. Luzardo has struck out 28.7 percent of hitters with a .336 FIP since the start of last season. He is only pulling five percent ownership on DraftKings at $8,800. It is a tough matchup against the Diamondbacks, who have a lot of right-handed power. Luzardo has allowed a .212 xISO to righties so far this season, so I understand being hesitant to roster him. But, in that case, wouldn’t it make sense to look to the D-Backs?
We have Arizona pulling 3.6 percent aggregate ownership in the Top Stacks tool, so people aren’t expected to go that route either. Similarly, Pfaadt is $4,500 on DraftKings and is only projected for seven percent ownership despite being one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and being fully stretched out (87 pitches last start). He did get lit up in his debut, but that came against a very good Rangers lineup, and it was one game regardless.
We shouldn’t be basing this guy’s short-term outlook on how he fared in his first Major League start. He is $1,500 less expensive than Schmidt and is getting about a sixth of the ownership. Schmidt has the better matchup but Pfaddt is still only about half as likely as Schmidt to be a top-two scoring pitcher (and more likely to be a top-two value). It’s very possible that Pfaadt struggles again, though, so Miami stacks have a lot of upside — and they are only projected for 6.5 percent aggregate ownership.
I have no idea what side of this game wins out, but there are two very talented pitchers and two high-upside offenses and none of them are popular. That makes this game a great source of MLB DFS value picks.
Texas Rangers (Andrew Heaney) at Seattle Mariners (George Kirby)
Both pitchers are expected to be popular. Heaney’s strikeout numbers are down from last year. He has replaced a lot of his slider usage to righties with his change-up, which is not a sign that bodes well for him moving forward. The slider was a new addition last year with the Dodgers, and, while he is still throwing it, his pitch mix now is more similar to his pitch mix pre-2022. There is still strikeout upside, however, and it is a favorable park for pitchers.
George Kirby has a tough matchup but he is a very talented young pitcher, and Texas only has a 3.1 implied run total as a result. I like taking shots at Mariners bats in tournaments since we know Heaney struggles with home runs. We also have reason to think that he will strike out a lower percentage of hitters this season than he did last season.
Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin) at San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb)
Webb has the second-highest chance of being a top-two scoring pitcher tonight against a weak Washington offense that has a 3-run implied total. Webb isn’t a great strikeout pitcher, but he is good at limiting baserunners and runs.
The Giants are in a good spot against Patrick Corbin, but be aware that there is a lot of pinch-hit risk in this lineup when they face left-handed starters. Slater and Villar in particular are likely to come out of the game if it’s competitive in the middle innings and the Nationals turn to the bullpen. They both offer value, but there is some added risk.
We can feel better about hitters like Estrada, Haniger, Davis and Flores since they get plenty of at-bats against right-handed pitching.
