Expert NBA DFS Advice: Nikola Jokic Could Separate From the Pack (May 9)

There are two more pivotal games on the bill for tonight’s NBA DFS slate. Several players stand out as a way to get leverage on the field. Today’s NBA DFS value plays and expert picks will breakdown those spots in every game.

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NBA DFS Value and Advice | May 9

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Joel Embiid continues to hold the “Q-tag” but it’s safe to assume that he’s playing. Unless we hear something new about Embiid’s status, he’s the top pay up option on the NBA DFS slate. Embiid is currently pulling 37% ownership, with a 35% chance of being optimal on DraftKings.

Tobias Harris doesn’t have the star power of Embiid but he’s doing enough to be the most popular 76er on DraftKings. Harris is expected to be owned in 42% of lineups at his $5,500 price tag and is a strong NBA DFS value play.

James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and De’Anthony Melton are all secondary DFS options at their price points. The strongest play of that group is Maxey who is projecting be underowned. He looks like a strong GPP play in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust tool.

Boston is likely to be the higher owned of the two teams. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Malcom Brogdon and Derrick White all project north of 30% ownership and all have at least a 30% percent chance of being in the optimal lineup. Robert Williams and Al Horford are a notch behind those five players, but both still offer plenty of upside at inexpensive salaries.

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

Devin Booker has played out of his mind in this series. But he’s expensive on this slate, and it’s difficult to project him as being worth the salary on a night with Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic all available. Nevertheless, there is enough volatility in a player like Booker that is such a great scorer.

Durant’s presence opens up better looks for Booker, and it contributes to the increased efficiency that he’s had as of late. Booker is projected for 15% ownership. It seems like a spot where he can continue to score at will. With all the other stars being more highly owned, taking an overweight position to Booker makes sense. The caveat of course, is there is a good chance that his actual ownership comes in a lot higher than we expect since the field’s recency bias could factor into the final rostership rate.

Durant, Deandre Ayton, Cam Payne, T.J. Warren and Terrance Ross are all projected for 20-30 percent ownership and that’s warranted. All present good value, but one thing that stands out, though, is that Landry Shamet is projected for less ownership than Warren and Ross despite playing a huge role for the Suns’ in the previous game. Shamet played about thirty minutes off the bench, and his skillset also fits what the Suns are looking for as they try and find additional scoring from their second unit. The Nuggets were allowing the Suns’ secondary players to get open threes last game. They view that as a better outcome than letting Durant or Booker shoot. Shamet is more likely to capitalize on those open threes than Warren or Ross are.

Ayton dealt with some foul trouble last game, so we can’t expect twenty minutes from Jock Landale again. However, Landale is very inexpensive and still offers some value.

Denver is the more popular of the two teams. They’re favored and are also less expensive with the exception of Jokic. Jokic is the most expensive player on the slate, but he is still projected for 42% ownership with a 53% chance of being optimal on DraftKings. My approach so far has been to jam Jokic into lineups and hope that he separates from Durant, Booker and Embiid. Booker has made that difficult so far, but it will probably be my approach again tonight since there is a massive projection difference between Jokic and every other player.

Jamal Murray returns home and is a very high upside mid-range option that projects as the most popular play on the team. Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope offer value while Michael Porter Jr. is still only $5,800 after an impressive performance last game. Porter is an outstanding NBA DFS value. Aaron Gordon appears to be getting slept on a bit as he is getting plenty of minutes and is capable of contributing in a variety of categories.

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Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].