Friday has a couple of early tilts along with a seven-game featured slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups for today, such as rookie LHP Andrew Abbott in Milwaukee against the Brewers along with the Texas Rangers on the road against a dismal starting pitcher RHP Trevor Williams.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Priority Pitching Target: RHP Aaron Civale vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel $8,800 | Yahoo $38
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Aaron Civale as one of the best fantasy point per dollar pitchers on the full-slate. The main knock against Civale is that he has seen his lefty/righty strikeout rates drop from 28.3%/24.1% last year to 20.0%/17.0% this season. His career strikeout per nine innings rate is 7.8, with a high of 9.1 last year and a low of 6.9 this year. When it comes to ERA, last year he was a little unlucky 4.92 and this year he has been a touch lucky 2.96 with his 3.87 xERA during the two-season timeframe.
In summary, Civale does a pretty good job of outpitching his peripherals for a good ERA, but he is below average on the strikeout front. Over the last two seasons, the projected Kansas City lineup has a 25.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and Civale induces enough ground balls (42.1%) that he should be able to mitigate the .160 ISO into doubles rather than home runs. Cleveland is also sitting as -180 home favorites and Civale usually closes out the sixth inning, giving him access to both a quality start and with some luck, a victory.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Andrew Abbott at Milwaukee Brewers — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $48
Rookie LHP Andrew Abbott has been impressive across six starts with a 1.21 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. While the 24-year-old did not make it to The Show as fast as Cincinnati’s two other young strikeout artists RHP Hunter Greene and LHP Nick Lodolo, he is at least healthy. The matchup against Milwaukee is a strong one both with the park upgrade away from hitting friendly Great American Ballpark as well as the Brewers being a bottom-five offense against southpaws this season, along with a 26.2% strikeout rate, which is the fourth worst.
On both the main and the evening sub-slates, RHP Luis Castillo is a fine pivot if Abbot is too popular with their similar salaries. Heck, you could even consider using this duo together. Of course the strategy of pairing Abbott and Castillo, just begs the question of who’s on first.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Zac Gallen vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $53
In a fun twist, RHPÂ Zac Gallen is tied with LHPÂ Clayton Kershaw as +200 co-favorites for the National League Cy Young Award per OddsShopper. with RHPÂ Spencer Strider right behind at +500. Yes, the 10-3 record is buoying Gallen’s odds, along with a surging Diamondbacks squad. However, his 3.15 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP are actually not quite as good as last season, though his 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings are a tick better.
The roof is scheduled to be closed tonight at Chase Field, which is a further boost to Gallen, as is the matchup against Pittsburgh. Gallen has allowed home runs in six consecutive games, but only nine total across his 18 outings. The Pirates do have above average power against right-handed pitching, but that comes with a 22.3% strikeout rate over the last two seasons. Tonight’s specific projected lineup has about a 10% decrease in ISO and strikeouts during the same timeframe. Advantage Gallen.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Texas Rangers at RHP Trevor Williams — 5.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
There is some weather risk tonight in Washington, but it looks like a delay is the worst case scenario. If you are RHP Trevor Williams, you are hoping for some early inning rain to get you off the hook for this matchup. On Sunday, Williams allowed a pair of home runs, for the sixth time this season, leaving him with a 1.9 home runs per nine innings rate. With a nearly invisible 16.9% strikeout rate this season, if Williams is not able to coax opposing hitters into worm burners, too many of his fly balls are leaving the park. That is a problem against a team like Texas.
Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia are a tremendous lefty-righty combination in the heart of the Texas batting order, though only DraftKings and Yahoo gave this dynamic duo much of a salary increase. Auxiliary power options include Nate Lowe, Josh Jung, leadoff man Marcus Semien and switch hitting catcher Jonah Heim is a great way to check off the backstop requirement on DFS sites.
Evening Slate Slate Target: Minnesota Twins vs. LHP Cole Irvin — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool still likes the Twins against LHP Cole Irvin, even though they managed only one run against Irvin on Sunday in Baltimore. Depending on his effectiveness, we Irvin should be on the mound for somewhere between 65 and 80 pitches. He has bounced between the bigs and Triple-A Norfolk. Though he has a lowish-3.21 ERA in the International League, he has only 22 strikeouts in his 42.0 innings.
The Twins will be running out a righty-leaning lineup, with plenty of power options. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer and Jose Miranda each boast a .200 ISO or better over the last two seasons and Donovan Solano should see a prime spot in the order, though it will cost his backers a first base slot and he is more of a doubles guy and on-base option, than a home run machine. That is perfect for stacks, but not for one-offs on such a large slate.
Late Slate Slate Target: San Francisco Giants vs. LHP Austin Gomber — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
There are not enough adjectives to describe how pitifully putrid LHP Austin Gomber has been this season. In four of his last 10 games, he has allowed a pair of home runs on two occasions and a trio of taters twice. San Francisco is not a particularly daunting option when considering stacks with the many injured Giants, but they are cheap. Tonight they will muster as many right-handed hitters as possible, which means Wilmer Flores, J.D. Davis and catcher Patrick Bailey should feature prominently as a secondary stack on the featured slate. One the later sub-slates, Austin Slater and Luis Matos are in play as differentiators, but both are potential pinch hit risks when a right-handed reliever enters the fray.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
The Boston power bats are in an interesting spot against RHP Luis Medina and we should look at some home run odds int sports wagering market tonight. Medina has allowed only one home run in his last 26 innings, however, in the 27.2 prior to that he allowed 10 and other than good fortune in June, not much has changed. Heck, in his last two starts he walked 12, yes a FULL DOZEN hitters.
Rafael Devers +360 and Adam Duvall .+375 are an intriguing lefty-righty combination in the middle of the Boston order. While neither is receiving an edge when looking at their posted odds versus the new True Odds feature on OddsShopper, this is a good matchup to sprinkle a couple of dollars on either hitter for some Friday night fun.
The True Odds have identified Kiebert Ruiz +870 vs. +777 and Alex Call +750 vs. +669 as favorable, though longer odds to launch a longball against LHP Cody Bradford and the Texas bullpen tonight.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Final Thoughts for Thursday, July 6 | MLB DFS Picks
There are going to be afternoon and evening storms around the DC Beltway, but it looks like the Nationals should not see anything more than a delay.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows, at 4:45 p.m. ET, brought to you by PrizePicks. New users sign up through this link and receive a first deposit match up to $100.
