There are 13 NBA games tonight, so there are a lot of expensive options to choose from. As it currently stands, none of them are particularly appealing NBA DFS options because we are waiting on a lot of news from several different teams. The questionable players from those teams are currently projected as being in, so it looks like a slate to target mid-range options more than the top pay-ups. This is likely to change as the day goes on and some of those questionable players are ruled out, however, so we will take a look at high-priced NBA DFS plays that are likely to rise to the top as the day progresses.
Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, let’s take a deeper dive into the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS high-priced studs for today.
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High Priced NBA DFS Plays: Wednesday, November 1
Stud No. 1 – Luka Doncic: Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,600/ FanDuel: $12,900
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 62.17/ FanDuel: 58.98
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 0.7%/ FanDuel: 0.8%
Doncic is difficult to get to as things currently stand, but there are a couple of reasons that he is likely to look better later on in the day. First, there are a lot of questionable players and teams on back-to-backs, so we will probably have more value closer to the start of the slate than we do right now. Doncic is the highest-projected player on the slate, so as it becomes easier to fit him into lineups, he will start to look like one of the best spend-up options.
Second, and more importantly, Kyrie Irving is questionable for the Mavericks after missing their last game. Doncic’s current projection is assuming that Irving will play. If Irving is ruled out, Doncic will look even better, as his projection will increase substantially. Overall, he has produced 1.7 DraftKings points per minute in games without Irving and 1.57 DraftKings points per minute in games where Irving was active since the start of last season. In four total games without Irving or Spencer Dinwiddie over that time, Doncic has produced 1.79 DraftKings points per minute, a 38.6% usage rate and 55.5% assist rate.
Stud No. 2 – Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,000/ FanDuel: $12,100
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 59.59/ FanDuel: 57.53
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 0.9%/ FanDuel: 2.7%
Jokic is the second-highest-projected player on the slate behind Doncic, and he is slightly less expensive. As value opens up tonight, Jokic is likely to become one of the preferred pay-up options, along with Doncic. If Irving plays for Dallas, their projections will remain similar. If Irving sits, Doncic will be projected much higher than Jokic, but that will also cause Jokic to remain a low-owned contrarian play since most people will be looking to roster Doncic.
Jokic has produced 1.66 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season, and there is no reason that we shouldn’t expect that production to continue going forward. We just need the value to open up to be able to roster him tonight.
Stud No. 3 – Anthony Davis: Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,800/ FanDuel: $11,600
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 52.07/ FanDuel: 53.27
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 11.6%/ FanDuel: 3.3%
Davis looks like a much more appealing play on DraftKings than FanDuel, as is reflected in the early NBA DFS ownership projections. He is the third-most expensive player on FanDuel, whereas he is the ninth-most expensive player on DraftKings. With the current lack of value options, Davis is much easier to get into lineups on DraftKings than players like Doncic and Jokic. As value opens up, Davis will remain a strong play, as he is affordable and offers a very high median projection and ceiling for his price tag. He will become easier to fit on FanDuel as more value opens up as well.
Davis has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute and 1.54 FanDuel points per minute this season. He is likely to play 36-plus minutes tonight against the Clippers, barring injury, foul trouble or blowout.
With 26 teams playing tonight, there is going to be a lot of news breaking throughout the day that changes the outlook for tonight’s slate. Be sure to check out Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
