We have 4 NBA games tonight so there are only a couple of expensive players to choose from at the top of our builds. We also will need to know Devin Booker’s status in order to fully evaluate those options as the slate gets closer. Moving forward, though, we’ll be looking at our high-priced NBA DFS plays, which includes a key decision between Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant.
Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, let’s take a deeper dive into the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS high-priced studs for today.
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High-Priced NBA DFS Plays: Joel Embiid or Kevin Durant
Stud No. 1 – Joel Embiid: Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,500/ FanDuel: $12,000
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 57.07/ FanDuel: 56.75
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 13.7%/ FanDuel: 12.8%
Embiid is always one of the best point-per-minute players in the NBA, but there is a chance that he produces at an even higher level this season with James Harden no longer on the team and, potentially, an increased emphasis on playmaking. Harden led the Sixers with 17.1 potential assists per game last season while Embiid only recorded 6.3 potential assists in 34.6 minutes per game. So far this season, Tyrese Maxey leads the team with 12.3 potential assists per game while Embiid is second with 9.3 potential assists in 33.7 minutes per game.
Overall last season, Embiid produced 1.56 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.3 percent usage percentage and 21.4 percent assist percentage. So far this season, he has maintained a 37 percent usage percentage, but his assist percentage has increased to 35.6 percent and he has produced 1.83 DraftKings points per minute.
He is my preferred spend-up option tonight on DraftKings where the gap in salary between Embiid and Durant is smaller than it is on FanDuel and there is less opportunity cost at the center position. Embiid is a very strong play on FanDuel as well, with a 19.2 percent chance of being optimal at just 12.8 percent ownership, but Durant looks like he will be a bit easier to fit into lineups.
Stud No. 2 – Kevin Durant: San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,800/ FanDuel: $10,800
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 49.92/ FanDuel: 49.14
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 10.4%/ FanDuel: 22%
Durant is our other pay-up option tonight and his outlook depends in part on the status of Devin Booker. Booker is questionable to play tonight after missing the Suns’ last three games.
Durant has played nine games alongside Booker since joining the Suns last season, producing 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.8 percent usage percentage and 16.3 percent assist percentage. He has produced 1.35 DraftKings points per minute in his three games without Booker this season, maintaining a 34.6 percent usage percentage and 29 percent assist percentage in 35.4 minutes per game.
On DraftKings, Embiid is the preferred option to Durant with or without Booker, though the gap certainly shrinks if Booker is out. On FanDuel, Durant is the preferred option because the center position offers plenty of mid-range upside and we can only roster one, while the forward positions are considerably weaker. Durant’s salary is also less expensive relative to Embiid’s on FanDuel. He becomes an even bigger priority if Booker is ruled out.
There are only eight teams playing tonight, but we will still need to keep a close eye on injury news throughout the day as a couple of those teams are on a back-to-back and Booker’s status is pivotal. Be sure to check out Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
