We have 7 NBA games tonight with a few top-end players to choose from. Our approach will be site dependent for our high-priced NBA DFS plays, as pricing is much tighter on DraftKings than FanDuel. As a result, none of the top tier players are priorities on DraftKings unless a lot of unexpected value opens up throughout the day. On FanDuel, it will be a bit easier to fit a stud into our lineups.
Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, let’s take a deeper dive into the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS high-priced studs for today.
Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NBA DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.
High-Priced NBA DFS Plays: Luka Doncic or Nikola Jokic
High-Priced NBA DFS Plays Stud No. 1 – Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $13,000/ FanDuel: $12,500
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 59.04/ FanDuel: 56.29
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 1.0%/ FanDuel: 3.0%
Doncic is extremely expensive as he has played his last couple of games without Kyrie Irving. Irving is expected to play tonight, however, so Doncic is overpriced as a result. He is always capable of being the highest scoring player on a slate, but he has only produced 1.57 DraftKings points per minute in 18 games played alongside Irving since the start of last season compared to 1.69 DraftKings points per minute in 52 games without him.
High-Priced NBA DFS Plays Stud No. 2 – Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,000/ FanDuel: $11,900
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 58.49/ FanDuel: 56.52
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 7.6%/ FanDuel: 8.6%
Jokic projects similarly to Doncic at a cheaper price tag. Still, he is more of a luxury than a necessity as we don’t have much cheap value and he plays the position with the most opportunity cost. While Jokic is an absolute stud and has produced 1.66 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season, there are plenty of mid-range centers with high ceilings that we can target to save salary.
High-Priced NBA DFS Plays Stud No. 3 – Giannis Antetokounmpo: New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,800/ FanDuel: $10,400
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 52.62/ FanDuel: 52.57
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 5.4%/ FanDuel: 20.2%
Antetokounmpo offers some savings from Doncic and Jokic, but he has plenty of concerns of his own. First is his playing time. After playing 35 minutes in Milwaukee’s season opener, Antetokounmpo played just 29, 32 and 28 minutes in the next three games. While two of those games were blowouts that caused him to lose minutes in the fourth quarter, he still only played 15 and 16 minutes in the first half of those games.
There is a chance that he will play 35 minutes tonight, but it’s difficult to expect more than 32. Second is his production. He has produced just 1.35 DraftKings points per minute this season compared to 1.72 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season.
He has maintained a 35 percent usage percentage so far this season, but his assist percentage has dropped from about 31 percent to about 15 percent with Damian Lillard joining the team from Portland. On DraftKings, Antetokounmpo is similar to Jokic in that he is a viable option if you can find the salary, but it will be difficult to do so. He is more of a priority on FanDuel where he is less expensive than he is on DraftKings and pricing is softer in general.
There are seven games tonight and we are still waiting on some important injury news, particularly for the Cleveland Cavaliers, so be sure to check out Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
