There are 14 NBA games tonight and several top-end players to choose from. That will lead to plenty of available value by the time lock gets here since there are so many teams playing, and it’s a bit easier to get to some of the top options tonight than it has been on recent slates. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, let’s take a deeper dive into the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS high-priced studs for today.
Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NBA DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.
High-Priced NBA DFS Plays: Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic
Stud No. 1 – Luka Doncic: Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,000/ FanDuel: $12,300
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 57.9/ FanDuel: 54.7
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 0.7%/ FanDuel: 0.8%
Doncic is the most expensive player on tonight’s slate, but he only has the third-highest projection. He has produced 1.6 DraftKings points per minute and 1.5 FanDuel points per minute in 37.2 minutes per game this season, so he is clearly a top option. The issue is that Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are both on the slate at less expensive price tags, and they both produce fantasy points at a higher level than Doncic. Additionally, while there is plenty of opportunity cost at center working against Jokic and Embiid, there is a lot of value at the guard positions tonight, which makes it even more difficult to prioritize Doncic.
Stud No. 2 – Nikola Jokic: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,700/ FanDuel: $12,100
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 65.0/ FanDuel: 62.0
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 17.0%/ FanDuel: 9.6%
Jokic is the highest-projected player on the slate, as usual. He has continued to produce at an exceptional level this season with 1.75 DraftKings points per minute, and he will also be playing without Jamal Murray tonight. While Murray’s absence doesn’t have a massive impact on Jokic’s rates or per-minute production since there isn’t room for Jokic to produce much more than he already does with Murray on the floor, his absence does reduce the risk of the Nuggets winning a game with Jokic playing a secondary role.
Jokic is clearly Denver’s No. 1 option most games, but we do occasionally see a game where Murray is hot as a scorer and takes on a bigger workload at the expense of Jokic. Without Murray, that is much less likely to happen since nobody else on the Nuggets is going to have the ball in their hands as much as Murray does. Since the start of last season, Jokic has produced 1.75 DraftKings points per minute in 66 games played alongside Murray and 1.81 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games without Murray.
Stud No. 3 – Joel Embiid: Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,000/ FanDuel: $11,900
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 58.7/ FanDuel: 58.0
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 5.7%/ FanDuel: 2.0%
Embiid has the second-highest projection on the slate behind Jokic, and he is available at a slight discount from Jokic. Embiid has been dominant this season, producing 1.82 DraftKings points per minute on a 37.9% usage rate, 31.1% assist rate and 19.4% rebounding rate. The assist rate is the big difference from last season, as we have seen a bigger emphasis on facilitating while maintaining a massive usage rate. He will have his work cut out for him tonight in a difficult matchup against the Celtics, but he looks like a strong contrarian play in GPPs.
There are 14 games tonight so we can expect there to be plenty of news breaking throughout the day that will impact tonight’s slate. Be sure to check out Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
