There are 12 MLB games on tap tonight, including another game at Coors Field. The Dodgers are not in Coors, though, so things are more or less back to normal. Pitching as a whole is difficult, as there are not many aces on the mound and most of the pitchers with the most talent are in difficult matchups.
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MLB DFS Advice Today: | June 30
Game of the Day: Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies
This section is still talking about Coors Field, but it is different from the last few days now that the Tigers have replaced the Dodgers as the visiting team. Detroit’s active roster has a 95 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of last season, which ranks 26th in baseball. That said, it is a very inexpensive tonight against Austin Gomber, and it still has a 5.7 implied run total. Gomber has been awful this year, striking out 15.3% of hitters while allowing a .382 xwOBA and .239 xISO to right-handed hitters. There will probably be nine right-handed hitters for Detroit, but in case a lefty or two sneaks into the lineup, Gomber has allowed a .455 xwOBA and .313 xISO to left-handed hitters this season, making them rosterable as well. There is also only one hitter in Detroit’s projected lineup that costs more than $4,000 on DraftKings. The Tigers are currently first in the Top Stacks Tool with a 10.8% chance of being the top stack and 10.9% aggregate ownership. They also have a 12.2% chance of being the top value stack.
On the other side of the game, the Rockies have a 6.9% chance of being the top scoring stack at only 5.5% ownership. They will face Michael Lorenzen, who has allowed a .204 xISO to righties and a .202 xISO to lefties this year. Ryan McMahon stands out in particular for the Rockies, as he has a .385 xwOBA and .246 xISO in 228 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Freddie Freeman (LAD): $6,000 on DraftKings
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY): $4,500 on DraftKings
Matt Vierling (DET): $3,500 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Freddie Freeman: Freeman faces rookie Alec Marsh in his major league debut tonight in Kansas City. This is a brutal landing spot for Marsh, and Freeman is one of many reasons why. Freeman has a .383 wOBA and .169 ISO against right-handed pitching this year. While those numbers are good, they are not as strong as one would expect from Freeman. His expected numbers suggest there has been some bad luck, however, as his .411 xwOBA is nearly 30 points higher than his wOBA and his .222 xISO is more than 50 points higher than his ISO.
Giancarlo Stanton: The Yankees lineup has underperformed this season, particularly without Aaron Judge, but Stanton is in a great spot tonight against Matthew Liberatore. Liberatore has struck out 16% of the hitters that he has faced this year while allowing a .252 xISO to right-handed hitters, along with a .415 xwOBA. Stanton only has 17 plate appearances against lefties this season, but he has a .348 wOBA and .227 ISO in 306 plate appearances since the start of 2021.
Matt Vierling: Vierling is one of the best value hitters on the slate, as he is likely to be leading off in Coors Field against Gomber. As mentioned in the Game of the Day section, Gomber has allowed a .239 xISO and .382 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this year. Vierling enters tonight’s game with a 113 wRC+ this season. While that number is likely to drop at least a bit going forward, as most projection models project a wRC+ between 100 and 110 over the rest of the year, it is unlikely to begin its decline tonight in Colorado.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Shane McClanahan (TBR): $11,000 on DraftKings
Freddy Peralta (MIL): $9,700 on DraftKings
Jon Gray (TEX): $9,300 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Shane McClanahan: McClanahan is much more expensive than most other pitchers tonight, but he is one of the best pitchers on the slate. He has the third-highest strikeout rate (26.7%), and his 3.74 xFIP ranks fourth. He will face the Seattle Mariners, who have a 25% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching on their active roster since the start of last season — though they are also 11th in wRC+ over that time.
Freddy Peralta: Peralta has not been great this year, but he does have above-average strikeout stuff and a decent matchup in a good park. He will face the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates will still be without Bryan Reynolds. Pittsburgh’s active roster ranks 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and it has a 22.7% strikeout rate. Peralta has the fourth-highest strikeout rate on the slate (25.4%).
Jon Gray: Gray started the year out slowly, but then he turned things around and looked more like the pitcher he was on the Rockies. He has recently dealt with blister issues, but those appear to be behind him now. He threw 82 pitches in five innings in his last start, so do not expect him to be overly limited tonight against the Astros. The matchup is a tough one, though the absence of Yordan Alvarez makes it a bit better. Gray has only struck out 21.6% of hitters this season and has a 4.39 xFIP, but he projects for about a 23% strikeout rate and 4.1 to 4.3 FIP over the rest of the year in most of the available projection models on FanGraphs.
