The UFC returns to Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov, with Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson in the co-main event. Below we will cover some of the top fights on the under card to find value with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections. Let’s dive into UFC DFS picks for Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov.
UFC Fight Night DFS Picks for Sean Strickland-Abus Magomedov
Salaries from DraftKings. For top FanDuel UFC DFS picks, check out Stokastic’s MMA fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.
Yana Santos ($7,600)
This is one of the trickier DFS cards in recent memory, as the Strickland-Magomedov fight stands out far above the rest. After prioritizing that fight, the second-highest-paced fight according to Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections is Yana Santos-Karol Rosa. This card is short on highly projected underdogs, so Santos stands out. This fight does not have much chance for a finish, and even Santos in a loss could be viable.
Santos is a +145 underdog against late replacement Santos. Santos is 0-2 in her most recent fights against Holly Holm and Irene Aldana. Rosa also is fresh off a loss to Norma Dumont in April of this year. However, Rosa has fought to a decision in all seven of her UFC appearances.
Stylistically, both fighters have solid pace. Santos averages 3.82 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.81. She also averages 1.28 takedowns per bout. Rosa lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute while averaging 1.43 takedowns herself. Both fighters have takedown defense below 70%, which means a decent number of points could be scored in this fight.
Rosa appears to have a grappling advantage, but Santos has shown a decent ability to work back to her feet. As long as she can utilize that strategy here, she should score well from a DFS perspective.
Rinat Fakhretdinov ($8,800)
Near the top of pricing, Rinat Fakhretdinov is a -190 favorite over Kevin Lee. Fakhretdinov has an impressive 20-1 professional record, including UFC wins against Brian Battle and Andreas Michailidis. Lee re-enters the UFC after defeating Diego Sanchez in Eagle FC last March. He previously lost his two UFC bouts against Daniel Rodriguez and Charles Oliveira.
Lee has fought the better competition in his career, but he has been far less active. He averaged 3.89 significant strikes per minute while averaging 3.19 takedowns per bout. However, he could be at a grappling disadvantage against the wrestling phenom Fakhretdinov.
Though Fakhretdinov is younger in his UFC career, he averages 2.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 0.7. In fact, he has only absorbed 21 significant strikes through two decisions. Fakhretdinov averages six takedowns per bout, and he has also been credited with 27.11 minutes of control time out of 30 possible minutes. Competition aside, this level of grappling scores extremely well for DFS.
With many others likely to target other expensive fighters, there is a chance Fakhretdinov will provide some crucial leverage on this card.
Ismael Bonfim ($9,200)
Another potential leverage option near the top of pricing, Ismael Bonfim takes on Benoit Saint Denis as a -300 favorite. Bonfim is only one fight into his UFC career, but he knocked out Terrance McKinney in spectacular fashion via flying knee. Already 19-3 in his career, Bonfim is also a veteran of Dana White’s Contender Series. Saint Denis has a 10-1 record, going 2-1 in the UFC. He will look to continue his winning streak after knocking out Gabriel Miranda last September.
From a MMA DFS projections standpoint, this fight has the fourth-best pace. However, little separates it from the Fakhretdinov fight ahead of it. Saint Denis has proven to be quite aggressive in his short UFC career. He lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute while averaging 3.36 takedowns, and he has been known to push a pace.
Bonfim has also been hyper-aggressive. He lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute while averaging 1.35 takedowns. Saint Denis may have the grappling edge on paper, but Bonfim has shown solid takedown defense at 100%. Bonfim should also have a striking advantage. Saint Denis absorbs 6.72 significant strikes per minute and has a negative striking differential. His 41% striking defense speaks to his some of the deficiencies in this part of his game.
With Bonfim’s solid takedown defense, he should be able to keep the fight standing and outpoint Saint Denis. Many DFS participants will likely target Joanderson Brito as a massive favorite, which could leave room for leverage for other expensive fighters like Bonfim.
