There are 11 games tonight and a lot of ways to approach the slate. The Giants have the highest top stack percentage in the Top Stacks Tool at 10.1% and the highest aggregate ownership at 10.1%, so there are not any offenses that are running away from the field and there also are not any offenses that are getting a problematic amount of ownership. Similarly, pitching ownership is relatively flat, so we should be able to put together lineups that project well and also aren’t overly popular.
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MLB DFS Advice: Corbin Carroll, Shohei Ohtani | July 21
Game of the Day: Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
There are several games that would be worthy of this space, but this one stands out because it has a little bit of everything, and it is very inexpensive across the board.
Clarke Schmidt will get the start for the Yankees, and he is just $6,200 on DraftKings. Schmidt has struck out 23.2% of hitters this season and has a 4.23 xFIP, and Kansas City’s active roster has an 82 wRC+ and a 24.4% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this year. Schmidt is clearly mispriced and is the most popular SP2 value option on tonight’s slate. He has the fifth-highest top-2 pitcher percentage at 13.0% and the second-highest top-2 value percentage at 23.4% in the Top Pitchers Tool. He is also projected for 31.2% ownership.
Alec Marsh will take the mound opposite Schmidt. Marsh has split time between Double-A (11 starts), Triple-A (3 starts) and the majors (3 starts) this season. He has actually produced similar numbers at each level: 26.4% strikeout rate and 4.34 xFIP at Double-A, 28.8% and 4.32 at Triple-A and 31.8% and 4.33 with the Royals. He projects to be worse going forward, as most models project a 20% to 22% strikeout percentage and 4.7 to 4.8 FIP for the rest of the year. He is only $5,000 on DraftKings tonight, however, and his 27.3% chance of being a top-2 value pitcher is the highest on the slate. The Yankees active roster is the only roster with a lower wRC+ against right-handed pitching than the Royals.
While both of these offenses are bad, they are also both cheap and hitting in Yankee Stadium. Yankees Stadium’s overall park factor ranks 26th over the last three seasons, but it has the third-highest home run park factor.
Schmidt has had issues with left-handed hitters this year, allowing a .373 wOBA and .205 ISO while striking out 19.9%. Righties have produced a reasonable .168 ISO but only a .291 wOBA. M.J. Melendez, Michael Massey and Nick Pratto are the best left-handed options from Kansas City, while Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are always two of the highest-upside options at their respective positions.
Marsh has not spent enough time with the Royals to draw any conclusions, but he is getting a substantial park downgrade for home runs. The Yankees lineup is weak, but it does have power in the middle with Giancarlo Stanton (.232 xISO against righties since last season) and Gleyber Torres (.170 xISO). Anthony Rizzo has struggled to hit for power lately, but he has plenty of power and gets the short porch in right field. Oswald Peraza is leading off again and offers value with multi-position eligibility. The bottom of the order is more difficult to stomach, but Franchy Cordero and Anthony Volpe at least offer some cheap home run upside.
Overall, this is a weird game because most of the individual players are not very good. But every part of this game is so inexpensive that it is difficult to picture how none of it ends up offering useful value in tournaments.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Corbin Carroll (ARI): $5,800 on DraftKings, $4,000 on FanDuel
Joc Pederson (SFG): $4,400 on DraftKings, $3,000 on FanDuel
Pete Alonso (NYM): $5,000 on DraftKings, $3,600 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Corbin Carroll: Carroll is in the midst of a fantastic rookie year and has a 140 wRC+ and 29 stolen bases. He is one of the highest-upside players any time that he is on a slate, and he is in a good spot tonight against Ben Lively in Great American Ballpark. It has been the best park for home runs over the last three seasons, and Lively has allowed a .252 xISO to left-handed hitters this year. Carroll has a .407 wOBA and .308 ISO against right-handed pitching. His expected numbers are a bit worse, but a .355 xwOBA and .203 xISO are still strong numbers — especially because his speed makes him likely to outperform expectations.
Joc Pederson: Pederson has a great matchup tonight against Jake Irvin in Washington. Irvin has allowed a .347 xwOBA and .209 xISO to left-handed hitters and has just a 15% strikeout percentage. Pederson has a .395 xwOBA and .255 xISO against right-handed pitching this season, and he gets a nice park upgrade hitting outside of San Francisco. Nationals Park has been the 12th-best for left-handed home runs over the last three years, while Pederson’s home park ranks 24th.
Pete Alonso: Alonso faces Kutter Crawford tonight in Fenway Park. Crawford has not been bad overall, with a 25.5% strikeout percentage and 4.03 xFIP as a starter. He has given up power to right-handed hitters, however, with a .201 xISO and .183 actual ISO allowed. Alonso has a .362 xwOBA and .267 xISO in 271 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year. Fenway Park has also been slightly better than Citi Field for right-handed homers over the last three seasons, and it has been substantially better for overall run scoring.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Shohei Ohtani (LAA): $11,000 on DraftKings, $10,200 on FanDuel
Framber Valdez (HOU): $10,800 on DraftKings, $11,200 on FanDuel
Clarke Schmidt (NYY): $6,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani is the best strikeout pitcher on the slate, as he enters tonight’s game with a 32.2% strikeout percentage. He also has a 3.53 xFIP and a favorable matchup against the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s active roster has a 98 wRC+ and 22.8% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this year. Ohtani’s biggest weakness has been left-handed power, as he has allowed a .207 xISO to lefties. The Pirates do not have much in the way of left-handed power, however, with Jack Suwinski and Bryan Reynolds being their only left-handed power threats.
Framber Valdez: Valdez is on the short list of best starting pitchers in baseball, and he gets to face the Athletics tonight in Oakland. The A’s have the lowest implied run total on the slate at 2.8 runs. Valdez has increased his strikeouts this year, striking out 27.4% of hitters to go along with a 2.89 xFIP. Oakland’s active roster ranks last with a 79 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.
Clarke Schmidt: Schmidt is a viable mid-range option on FanDuel at $8,000, but he really stands out as an SP2 on DraftKings at $6,200. He was discussed in detail in the Game of the Day section, but he has a strong matchup against a weak Kansas City lineup and offers one of the best point-per-dollar pitcher projections on the slate.
